In this decade, I expect the rise of China, emerging fiercely to compete with America on global supremacy, frontally, not just from the flanks. Alliances will begin to be reshaped and most parts of Africa will move to China’s side, believing that their futures would be with China. As America prints more money to stimulate its economy, due to the massive dislocation from Covid-19, it would be looking inwards, and that would open a huge world for China.
The year 2020 was an inflection year, and it was the year that China picked a better seat to engineer a future it wants in the global arena.
A new order is coming, and China will set it across Latin America, Africa and most parts of Europe. England which felt its land was not enough, and went around the world colonizing nations, now wants to be peacefully at home, via Brexit, will become increasingly diminished, as the world will see it from the side mirrors due to China.
In the last ten centuries, China has led at least in six, and this new century is looking like another opportunity for the manufacturing hub of the world. The evolving retreat of America, UK and broad Europe, will open new vistas for China’s global supremacy. Because military power has never sustained any empire without economic power, the ascension of China will showcase how economic arsenals will win Africa and Latin America, over any gunpowder.
The big question for Nigeria is this: how do we prepare for the post-American world even as we enter a post-petroleum era? In a Harvard article, I have postulated what a redesign could be for the development of Africa, and the urgency of a new developmental protocol.
In an upcoming new book, titled Nigeria’s Post-Petroleum Era in a Chinese World, I will examine many things. As always, this book will be exclusive to members of the Tekedia Institute community.
Comment #1: Great summary as always. The China engine is on autodrive and has been for the past few decades. I believe that anyone still doubting where the economics of the world will be determined in the next half century should know by now. While the American engine is still valuable, it is not as it once was as the internal battles it faces politically and in equal distribution of wealth unless addressed will remain potholes in their competition with China.
China has fast become the template for the world on how to become independent on the west. Sanctions seem not to have any effect from the west as their words of being the giant of the world are not backed by internal ongoings within the nation. As far s manufacturing and global supply chain goes, Europe, Africa and even the west cannot displace the Chinese mammoth engine.
Europe is clearly in the middle and yes, for now the UK move out of the union holds to many unknowns rather than knowns for the countries that make up the UK. Countries within the EU will be able to grow faster than those outside in the coming years.
With Afcfta on the heels of African countries, dependence on the west is sure to wane further. China clearly has the ball in its court.
Comment #2: A new order is already here. What remains in this new order is for China to permanently remain in active dominance. As the manufacturing heart beat of the world, any country that neglects China’s economic dominance will become increasingly diminished. Africa is already the new frontier for China. What remains for Nigeria is to strengthen its currency with China’s RMB, and for CBN to make RMB easily accessible for businesses in this, “post-petroleum Era in a Chinese world”
My Response to #2 Amazing insight – “for CBN to make RMB easily accessible for businesses “. I do think that would be the final phase, the displacement of US dollars. Yet, we cannot take for granted that America is very inventive and can usher a new order that will blow up Communist Party algorithm. My desire is for Africa to get into this game, productively, not just as a consumption partner.
Prof. hashtag#Tekedia Mini-MBA fourth edition is coming with a lot of mindblowing contents, the institution is a blessing to Nigeria, African and to the world at large.
I have been following this program since from first edition and every edition comes up with great improvement.
Prof. In regards to the Chinese as emerging world, I noticed two strategies being played between China and America of which that of China is paying off.
America operates the strategy of building military empire around the globe – Military alliance. While China comes with the strategy of building economic empire around the globe – Economical alliance.
The Chinese strategy is winning and making great impact especially in African because infrastructural development is the backbone of economical development. And most developing countries are battling and longing for such development but lack good administrative development strategies and China saw that gap and they are capitalising on it.
America has to change strategy to maintain it’s position as world No.1 largest economy with share of 24.08% of world GDP, China following with 15.12% trying to close up in near future.[Worldometers.info]
Thanks for always educating us Ndubuisi Ekekwe.