Act 1, Scene 1: SAP (Structural Adjustment Program Nigeria) 

Main Actors: Nigeria and World Bank

The Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) was a set of economic reforms implemented in Nigeria in the late 1980s. The program was a response to an economic crisis caused by falling oil revenues and increasing foreign debt. The goals of the SAP were to: 

#1- Diversify the economy away from oil , 

#2- Reduce dependence on imports, 

#3- Improve the efficiency of the public sector, 

#4- Increase the growth potential of the private sector.

Epilogue: The SAP was not able to achieve its goals; it scored 0.5%. The SAP destroyed Nigeria’s manufacturing, from Aba to Kano, from Maiduguri to Aba, and more. However, SAP achieved one thing: it financialized Nigeria, unleashing an era where banking and broad financial services (hello, finance houses) rule. More than 90% of Nigeria’s new generation banks were created within 1989 and 1992, as a result of the SAP playbook, even as companies faded. 

You can argue that we got banks but lost factories (that was the 0.5% score). Unfortunately, because of that, item #2 was not realized as import dependence scaled.  Of course, the public sector degraded in efficiency even as the private sector faded.

Opinion: Yes, the World Bank has endorsed Nigeria’s recent reforms. And so what? I call the national economic team to think for Nigeria and not be blindfolded to think the World Bank has the magic formula to fix Nigeria.

Simply, the government should explore a government of national unity where it revamps the executive council with even some opposition team members. Nigeria needs indigenous ideas because this moment is unique.

We must do all to make sure food security is not compromised and that could come by making food readily available. Nigeria needs reforms but we must do them in ways we do not break the citizens.

The World Bank’s recent endorsement of Nigeria’s economic reforms has reignited a heated debate about the country’s economic trajectory, with many warning that an unwavering adherence to the prescriptions of Bretton Woods institutions could push the nation to the brink of social unrest.

While the international financial institution has commended policies such as the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of multiple foreign exchange markets, local experts have expressed grave concerns about the impact on the everyday lives of Nigerians, who are grappling with a steep rise in the cost of living.

The current administration, led by President Bola Tinubu, made sweeping economic reforms from its very first day in office, including the elimination of fuel subsidies and restructuring of the foreign exchange system. While these policies were intended to stabilize the economy and attract foreign investments, their immediate effects have been painful for the average citizen. The price of fuel skyrocketed from N198 per liter to over N1,000, and the naira, once valued at below N500 to the dollar, has tumbled to above N1,700 on the parallel market. Inflation now stands at a staggering 32.15%, with the cost of essential goods and services spiraling out of reach for many.

At the 30th Nigerian Economic Summit held in Abuja on Monday, Indermit Gill, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank Group, echoed the institution’s support for the reforms, urging the administration to maintain its policies for at least the next 10 to 15 years.

“Nigeria will need to stay the course of current economic reforms for at least the next 10 to 15 years to transform its economy,” he stated, adding, “It is very difficult to implement such reforms, but the rewards will be massive if they are maintained.”

Also, Dr. Ndiame Diop, the World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, was resolute in his support for the reforms at the launch of the Nigeria Development Update (NDU) report in Abuja on Thursday. He noted, “Reversing these reforms would be detrimental and would spell doom for Nigeria.”

The World Bank’s position was clear that the nation must stay the course if it is to overcome its economic woes. The recent NDU report stated that while the reforms may be challenging in the short term, they are deemed essential for long-term growth and stability.

However, this narrative of eventual prosperity offers little solace to the millions of Nigerians who face the stark reality of empty dinner plates and dwindling purchasing power. Many economic analysts have issued dire warnings, contending that the country’s present economic trajectory could sow the seeds of civil unrest. The pain points are not merely numbers in a report; they are reflected in the lives of families who struggle daily to afford basic necessities.

Some observers see the government’s steadfastness as a gamble. The removal of the fuel subsidy, a long-standing burden on public finances, was hailed by international lenders as a step towards fiscal discipline. Yet, the reality for many Nigerians is that the absence of the subsidy has resulted in exorbitant transportation and production costs, making it increasingly difficult for ordinary citizens to cope. The unified foreign exchange regime, meanwhile, has led to wild swings in the currency’s value, intensifying economic volatility.

Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, reassured Nigerians of the government’s commitment to navigating the storm. He affirmed, “Any effort that is not sustained will be a waste. Together with the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and the Minister of Budget and National Planning, we’ve been discussing how to stay on course, tackle inflation, and ensure we move in the right direction.”

Edun indicated that the administration is banking on attracting significant investments in sectors like industry to create jobs and mitigate the hardships brought by its policies.

However, critics have warned the government about being overly dependent on the economic roadmap laid out by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), institutions whose recommendations are often critiqued for neglecting the social fabric of the countries they advise.

Nigeria’s current situation echoes past experiences where similar economic reforms, implemented under the guidance of these institutions, resulted in severe austerity measures that exacerbated poverty levels without delivering the promised growth. Skeptics caution that this could be history repeating itself, with the poorest Nigerians bearing the brunt of policies designed to cater more to macroeconomic metrics than to human needs.

The warnings from local experts have become increasingly urgent. Some predict that if the economic situation does not improve, the nation could face a wave of civil unrest reminiscent of past protests over fuel price hikes. The specter of demonstrations similar to the #EndSARS movement looms large, as frustration continues to build among citizens who see their economic prospects diminishing day by day.

Andrew Mamedu, Country Director of ActionAid Nigeria, did not mince words when he described the World Bank’s endorsement of the ongoing reforms as “insulting.” He argued that pushing Nigerians to endure “unprecedented economic hardship” without a clear safety net in place was not just unsustainable but dangerous.

“We demand that the government rethinks its blind allegiance to the World Bank’s economic blueprint and starts prioritizing the welfare of its people. The government must reject the idea that growth must come at the expense of human lives and begin to invest meaningfully in local industries, small businesses, and sustainable economic models that empower Nigerians rather than enslave them.

“This call assumes that continuity and persistence in these policies will yield transformative results, but the evidence tells otherwise. While long-term reform is important, the strategies proposed by the World Bank seem disconnected from the immediate socio-economic realities of Nigeria, especially regarding poverty, weak institutional capacity, and structural economic deficiencies,” he said.

Beyond the immediate hardship, the broader question of whether these reforms will lead to sustainable development remains contentious. While the World Bank and the Nigerian government highlight the potential for long-term gains, many are asking whether the country can afford to wait. The patience of the populace is wearing thin as inflation bites, unemployment remains high, and social safety nets appear inadequate to address the fallout.

The current administration has pledged to stay the course, but unless the benefits of these reforms start to manifest in the lives of ordinary citizens, the country may find itself on the verge of a social and economic crisis.

Mamedu cited an instance in the past where following the advice of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) led to a severe economic downturn in Nigeria. He noted how the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) introduced in the late 1980s crippled the nation’s local industries, especially the textile sector, and opened the floodgates for Nigeria to become heavily dependent on imported goods.

“Before the SAP, Nigeria’s textile industry was a vibrant hub employing hundreds of thousands of workers. However, with the IMF-driven policies forcing cuts in subsidies, import liberalization, and currency devaluation, Nigeria was pushed to shut down its own production capacity,” he said.

Mamedu said that given Nigeria’s current economic realities, driven by recent reforms of President Bola Tinubu’s administration, it is inhumane to accept any advice that will worsen the people’s suffering.

“It is not only unacceptable but inhumane to ask Nigerians to endure 15 more years of suffering in the name of reforms that have historically failed us. Millions of Nigerians can barely afford food, fuel, or basic services today. Asking them to wait over a decade for ‘things to get better’ is an affront to their dignity and a reckless gamble with the nation’s future.

“The question is, how many Nigerians will be alive till then to reap the benefits of this reforms, what does the future hold for our children who are currently feeling the brunt of the hardship, will there still be hope for them in 15 years’ time?” he asked.

For now, the government’s response to these objections is one of perseverance and hope for future rewards. However, a growing chorus of voices urges caution, warning that the cost of inaction—or worse, miscalculated actions—could yield more than the country can bear. The World Bank may believe that Nigeria’s road to economic transformation requires enduring the current storm, but many Nigerians are beginning to question if the destination is worth the journey.