Nigeria’s economy began 2026 with stronger momentum, offering early signs that reforms introduced over the past two years may be gradually stabilizing Africa’s fourth-largest economy even as inflation, weak consumer purchasing power, and oil-sector fragility continue to cloud the outlook.

New data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that real Gross Domestic Product expanded by 3.89% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, up from 3.13% recorded in the same period of 2025.

The figures suggest the economy is maintaining moderate growth despite persistent pressures from high interest rates, elevated energy costs, and currency volatility that have weighed heavily on businesses and households since the implementation of major economic reforms under President Bola Tinubu.

The latest growth numbers were largely powered by the non-oil economy, reinforcing a trend policymakers have long sought: reducing Nigeria’s dependence on crude exports and broadening growth across agriculture, telecommunications, finance, trade, and manufacturing.

Agriculture delivered one of the strongest turnarounds in the report. The sector grew by 3.15% in the first quarter, a sharp rebound from the near-flat 0.07% expansion recorded a year earlier. Analysts say the recovery points to improved farming activity in some regions, easing supply disruptions and stronger crop production after years of insecurity, flooding, and high input costs undermined output.

The services sector, which remains the backbone of the Nigerian economy, expanded by 4.31% and contributed 57.73% of total GDP, slightly higher than its share a year earlier. Telecommunications, financial services, real estate, and transportation were among the key drivers.

The continued dominance of services underscores how Nigeria’s economic structure is increasingly shifting toward digital and consumer-driven sectors, particularly telecommunications and financial technology. The Information and Communication sector, especially telecoms, remained one of the most important engines of growth as rising data consumption and digital payments continue to reshape commercial activity.

The industry sector also recorded modest improvement, growing by 3.50% compared with 3.42% in the corresponding quarter of 2025. Cement manufacturing and construction activity contributed to the gains, reflecting ongoing infrastructure spending and private sector building projects.

In nominal terms, aggregate GDP rose to N110.79 trillion in the first quarter, compared with N94.05 trillion a year earlier, representing nominal growth of 17.79%. However, economists caution that part of the increase reflects inflationary effects and exchange-rate adjustments rather than pure output expansion.

Nigeria continues to grapple with stubborn inflation, which has eroded household purchasing power and raised operating costs for businesses. While GDP growth has improved gradually, many Nigerians say the benefits are yet to translate into meaningful relief in food prices, transport costs, and living conditions.

One of the more notable aspects of the report was the relative resilience of the non-oil economy despite weaker crude production levels. Non-oil GDP grew by 3.94% in real terms, higher than the 3.19% recorded a year earlier, and accounted for 96.08% of total GDP.

That performance highlights how sectors outside petroleum are increasingly carrying the economy, particularly at a time when oil production remains constrained by underinvestment, pipeline vandalism, crude theft, and operational challenges.

Nigeria’s average crude oil production stood at 1.55 million barrels per day during the quarter, below the 1.62 million barrels recorded in the same period of 2025 and slightly below the previous quarter’s output.

Although the oil sector recorded real growth of 2.57%, up from 1.87% a year earlier, the pace slowed sharply from the 6.79% growth posted in the fourth quarter of 2025. The sector contributed just 3.92% to real GDP, underlining how limited its direct share of economic activity has become despite remaining Nigeria’s dominant source of foreign exchange earnings and government revenue.

The Mining and Quarrying sector posted mixed results. Nominal growth reached 13.92%, driven largely by crude petroleum and natural gas activities, which accounted for more than 91% of the sector’s weight. But in real terms, growth slowed to 1.89%, reflecting underlying production constraints.

The broader picture emerging from the data is that Nigeria’s economy is stabilizing gradually but unevenly. Reforms such as fuel subsidy removal, exchange-rate liberalization, and tighter monetary policy have improved investor sentiment and helped attract renewed foreign portfolio inflows, but they have also intensified short-term hardship for consumers and businesses.

The Central Bank of Nigeria has kept interest rates elevated in an attempt to contain inflation and stabilize the naira, while fiscal authorities are attempting to improve revenue collection and reduce deficits. Economists say sustaining growth above 4% consistently will require greater structural improvements, including stronger electricity supply, lower borrowing costs, improved security in food-producing regions, and increased domestic refining capacity to reduce import dependence.

The latest GDP figures nevertheless provide the clearest indication yet that Nigeria’s economy may be entering a more stable phase after years marked by currency shocks, oil-sector disruptions, and weak investor confidence. Economists believe much of the challenge now lies in converting macroeconomic recovery into broad-based improvements in employment, industrial output, and living standards.

Good People, relax and take life easy. The world is not collapsing, and despite the challenges around us, we are actually making progress. These days, I receive messages from members saying things like “my career is in a mess.” I always respond with one message: do not be too hard on yourself!

BELIEF does not end simply because things are not yet working exactly as planned. The last time I checked, PATIENCE was still in the dictionary. Yes, things could be difficult as economy reshapes, but if you look deeper, you will discover, that there is a movement, even if the destination has not fully appeared.

One of the biggest mistakes people make is forgetting their existing progress because the next level has not yet arrived. In America, churches celebrate secondary school graduates. Families gather to congratulate teenagers simply for staying in school and finishing high school (yes, secondary school). But in Nigeria, passing WAEC is treated like nothing. We ignore progress because we have normalized “I don’t have this and that”. But when you see a church dedicating a full service just to THANK kids for finishing secondary school, you will agree that we need to relax and celebrate some of our wins!

A young lady graduates with a Second Class Lower (2.2), and suddenly the “god” in her life becomes that 2.2. Every decision, every confidence level, every career conversation becomes chained to that result. Meanwhile, graduating itself was already progress. Unless she learns to see that achievement as a foundation rather than a limitation, the next level may remain psychologically blocked. If you did your best in school and finished with 2.2, build on it. Grades are nothing, what drives the world is PROCESS. Simply, the process to a grade is more important than the grade itself.

Good People, build on the small wins you already have. Progress compounds when acknowledged. Get involved in productive things. Develop a plan. Stay open to your future. Most importantly, maintain a positive attitude because optimism itself is strategic energy. A closed mind rarely sees opportunity.

So, do not write to me saying “my career is in a mess.” No. Your career is simply sending a new signal. Pay attention to that signal and update your playbook. The future still carries abundance, and you have a portion in it.

A strong personal economy is not built merely by working hard every day. It requires strategy, positioning, relationships, patience, and the discipline to continue improving yourself. Relax and think deeply about this thing we call a career. The wins you already have today are pillars supporting future victories not yet born.  Continue pushing yourself to become better than the “you of yesterday.” And audition for the next level before men and women even when no role is yet available. Because sometimes, opportunity arrives for people who prepared before the vacancy existed. Good luck.

India’s banking sector has proposed a new foreign exchange hedging framework to the Reserve Bank of India that could pave the way for tens of billions of dollars in overseas borrowing, as policymakers intensify efforts to stabilize the rupee and attract fresh dollar inflows into the economy.

According to sources familiar with the discussions cited by Reuters, treasury heads from major Indian banks met with the central bank last week ahead of the RBI’s June 5 monetary policy meeting, where they discussed mechanisms to lower the cost of raising foreign currency debt.

The proposal centers on subsidized forex hedging costs. Under the suggested structure, companies would raise dollar-denominated borrowings through banks, while lenders themselves would gain access to lower-cost currency swaps from the RBI. That would effectively reduce the cost of protecting borrowers against exchange-rate volatility.

“As per the latest discussions, ?the RBI is comfortable at bearing 150 basis points of the hedging cost, which should make ?the dollar borrowing cheaper than local fundraise, but some banks have requested for higher discounts,” one of the sources said.

Bankers believe the move could make overseas borrowing cheaper than raising funds domestically. Some lenders, however, are pushing for even larger concessions to further boost demand. They estimate such a scheme could help attract as much as $50 billion in foreign currency inflows, a potentially significant buffer at a time when India’s external accounts are facing mounting pressure from rising oil prices, capital outflows, and a weakening rupee.

The discussions highlight growing concern within Indian policymaking circles over the country’s balance of payments outlook. Economists have warned that elevated crude prices and sustained foreign investor withdrawals from Indian equities could push India into a sizable external deficit during the current financial year.

The rupee has emerged as one of Asia’s weakest-performing currencies in 2026, sliding as much as 4.7% against the dollar since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, which has driven global energy prices sharply higher. India, one of the world’s largest oil importers, remains highly vulnerable to spikes in crude prices because of their impact on inflation, trade balances, and dollar demand.

The pressure has complicated the RBI’s policy balancing act. While the central bank is attempting to preserve currency stability and maintain investor confidence, it is also trying to avoid excessively tightening domestic liquidity conditions at a time when economic growth remains uneven.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra signaled the urgency of the situation in an interview with Mint newspaper this week, saying India needs to strengthen both its current account and capital account positions.

The latest discussions also revive memories of a similar strategy deployed during India’s 2013 currency crisis, when the RBI introduced concessional swap windows for foreign currency non-resident deposits. That program successfully attracted roughly $26 billion from non-resident Indians and helped stabilize the rupee after the so-called “taper tantrum” triggered capital flight from emerging markets.

Reuters reported earlier this month that the RBI has again been studying ways to mobilize dollar inflows, including another potential NRI deposit initiative. Analysts say policymakers are now attempting to create multiple channels for foreign currency funding rather than relying solely on reserve sales to defend the rupee.

India’s foreign exchange reserves remain relatively strong by historical standards, but persistent intervention to smooth rupee volatility can rapidly deplete reserves during periods of prolonged external stress. Encouraging external commercial borrowings through subsidized hedging may therefore offer a less disruptive alternative.

The proposal also reflects how sharply global monetary conditions have shifted. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates elevated for longer have strengthened the dollar and intensified funding pressures across emerging markets.

For Indian corporates, overseas borrowing has often been unattractive because of expensive hedging costs, which can erase the interest-rate advantage of dollar loans. A central bank-backed swap mechanism could materially alter that equation, particularly for infrastructure firms, manufacturers, and large conglomerates seeking long-term financing.

Still, the proposal carries risks as subsidizing hedging costs could expose the RBI to currency-market losses if volatility intensifies further. It may also encourage excessive external borrowing if companies underestimate future exchange-rate risks.

There are also unanswered questions over eligibility. Reuters could not determine whether any eventual subsidy scheme would apply broadly across borrowers or be targeted toward specific sectors considered strategically important for economic growth.

India’s trade minister, Piyush Goyal, said last week that the government was closely monitoring rupee weakness and considering multiple measures to counter depreciation pressures.

The broader concern for policymakers is that geopolitical instability, particularly in the Middle East, is colliding with tighter global financial conditions at a vulnerable moment for emerging markets. This means maintaining stable capital inflows has become increasingly important for India, not only for defending the currency but also for preserving macroeconomic confidence and funding long-term growth ambitions.