Bitcoin ETFs Break 4 Days Streak with $117M Net Inflows, as Bitcoin Keeps Exhibiting Two-Phase Reaction on Global Escalations

Bitcoin ETFs break 4 day outflow streak with $117M of net inflows” refers to recent data from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.

The funds recorded approximately $116.67 million to $117 million in net inflows sources vary slightly on the exact figure, often rounded to $117M, snapping a four-day streak of outflows that totaled over $1.3 billion in withdrawals from January 6–9.

This marked a return to positive territory after challenging sessions, with outflows peaking at around $486 million on January 7. Fidelity’s FBTC was a major driver of the inflows on January 12, contributing significantly around $111–126 million in some breakdowns.

Other funds like BlackRock’s IBIT showed mixed but overall supportive activity in the rebound. This shift signaled renewed institutional interest amid Bitcoin’s price volatility early in 2026, following heavier redemptions likely tied to year-end adjustments and market consolidation.

Note that flows have been highly volatile since the start of the year: Strong inflows kicked off January e.g., $471M on Jan 2, $697M on Jan 5. Then a pullback with the mentioned outflow streak. More recently as of mid-January 2026, flows turned strongly positive again in subsequent days, with much larger inflows reported e.g., hundreds of millions to over $800M on some dates, pushing Bitcoin toward highs near $97K+ and cumulative ETF inflows climbing further.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to serve as a key barometer for institutional sentiment, with cumulative net inflows since launch now well over $58 billion and total assets under management exceeding $120–128 billion depending on the latest snapshots.

This rebound highlights the resilient demand for Bitcoin exposure through regulated vehicles despite short-term swings.

Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) played a pivotal role in snapping the recent 4-day outflow streak for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, recording the largest single-day inflow on January 12, 2026.

According to data from trackers like SoSoValue widely cited in reports, FBTC saw approximately $111.75 million in net inflows on that date. This accounted for the vast majority of the total ~$116.67 million net inflows across all spot Bitcoin ETFs, effectively driving the rebound after cumulative outflows exceeded $1.3 billion from January 6–9 with FBTC itself contributing heavily to those redemptions earlier in the week.

Key breakdown for FBTC on January 12, 2026: Daily net inflow: ~$111.75 million equivalent to roughly 1,220 BTC added, based on prevailing prices around that time. This represented a strong reversal for the fund, which had faced significant pressure in the prior sessions, outflows in the hundreds of millions during the streak, including notable redemptions on January 7–8.

Cumulative net inflows since launch: Approximately $11.83 billion at that point. Net assets under management (AUM): Around $18.19 billion post-inflow. Trading volume for FBTC that day: ~$316 million, with the ETF’s share price gaining about 1.40%.

FBTC’s inflow dominated the session, while other major funds showed mixed results, BlackRock’s IBIT experienced outflows of ~$70 million or so in some reports, offsetting part of the total positive figure. This highlighted Fidelity’s strong appeal among investors seeking Bitcoin exposure, often attributed to its low 0.25% fee, robust platform integration, and retail/institutional accessibility.

The rebound aligned with Bitcoin’s price stabilization and recovery momentum early in 2026, following year-end adjustments and consolidation. For more granular historical daily flows on FBTC including the full January 2026 volatility, reliable sources include: Farside Investors— Provides real-time daily tables in USD millions.

Flows remain highly dynamic—e.g., subsequent days in mid-January showed continued positive momentum in some sessions—but FBTC’s January 12 performance was the standout contributor to ending that specific outflow streak.

Bitcoin Typically Exhibits a Two-phase Reaction on Global Escalations

If fears of World War 3 or major global escalation spike, Bitcoin tends to exhibit a two-phase reaction based on historical patterns from geopolitical crises like Russia-Ukraine invasion in 2022, Israel-Hamas/Israel-Iran tensions in 2023–2025, and recent US-Iran escalations in early 2026.

Bitcoin typically behaves like a high-beta risk asset during the initial shock and liquidity crunch: Markets sell off uncertainty first ? risk assets (stocks, crypto) get hit hard as investors seek immediate cash or traditional safe havens.

In past episodes, Bitcoin has dropped significantly in the early days/hours e.g., 8–16% dips during specific escalations in 2024–2025, or broader volatility tied to macro fallout like rate hikes after the 2022 Ukraine invasion, which contributed to a ~65% crash over months.

As of early 2026 show Bitcoin dipping during peak tension but often rebounding quickly when macro conditions stabilize e.g., surging above $95,000 amid US-Iran fears combined with easing inflation.

In a true WW3-scale event (direct major-power conflict), the initial phase would likely see even steeper declines due to global deleveraging, internet and power disruptions in affected regions, or flight to ultra-safe assets like physical gold and cash.

Academic studies and analyses reinforce this: cryptocurrencies show higher volatility and weaker hedging properties against geopolitical risk compared to gold, USD, or oil in extreme conditions.

Potential Rise as “Digital Gold”

If the conflict drags on, Bitcoin can shift toward its portable, censorship-resistant narrative and act more like a hedge: Capital controls, sanctions, currency devaluation, or fragmented finance increase demand for borderless, non-seizable assets.

In regions with hyperinflation fears, banking restrictions, or evasion needs e.g., parts of the world during Ukraine sanctions, Bitcoin sees usage spikes. Historical data shows Bitcoin often posting positive average returns ~31% in 50 days post-major geopolitical events since 2010, per some analyses.

In prolonged scenarios with easier money (central bank stimulus to counter recession/war costs) or fragmented global rails, Bitcoin rebounds strongly and can outperform as a “non-sovereign store of value.” Recent 2025–2026 patterns, Bitcoin rallies during Middle East escalations suggest growing acceptance as a geopolitical hedge, especially with institutional adoption like ETFs, and corporate treasuries.

Gold typically outperforms in pure fear phases —more stable safe haven, while Bitcoin acts as a complement rather than direct substitute — it can decouple and rally later if policy supports risk assets.

Bitcoin likely crashes first but has a credible shot at becoming “digital gold” in the aftermath — especially if the scenario involves prolonged uncertainty, monetary debasement to fund war, sanctions, or capital flight rather than total infrastructure collapse e.g., nuclear doomsday, where most assets including Bitcoin become irrelevant.

Ethereum likely crashes or drops sharply first in a geopolitics spike— risk-off liquidity hit, often amplified vs. Bitcoin, but has solid potential to recover and perform as a “digital utility/hedge” in the medium term — particularly if the scenario involves sanctions, capital controls, inflation, or decentralized demand rather than total collapse. It’s more volatile and ecosystem-dependent than Bitcoin, so resilience depends on broader crypto adoption trends.

In extreme WW3 scenarios, portfolio survival trumps speculation — but history shows crypto (including ETH) often rebounds when fragmentation favors non-sovereign assets.

This isn’t guaranteed — Bitcoin remains more volatile than traditional havens — but evidence from real crises shows resilience and eventual upside in fragmented, inflationary environments. In a full-scale WW3 nightmare, survival trumps portfolio performance anyway.