The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has retraced to the $116,000 price zone, hitting $116,795 after briefly pulling back to $114,395 earlier in the week, as traders closely watch the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision.
The leading cryptocurrency continues to consolidate above $116,000, with immediate resistance seen between $117,000 and $118,000. A decisive breakout above this zone could signal a major structural shift on higher time frame charts.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, with markets largely expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut. This decision is expected to set the tone for both stocks and digital assets for the remainder of the year.
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Tom Lee, Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, told CNBC that Bitcoin and Ethereum could be among the biggest beneficiaries if the Fed moves to cut rates. According to Lee, both assets are highly sensitive to liquidity and could experience a “monster move” within the next three months.
He highlighted Bitcoin, Ethereum, the Nasdaq 100, and U.S. small-cap stocks as key areas to watch, emphasizing that lower borrowing costs often restore investor confidence and fuel liquidity-driven trades.
Market Sentiment and Technical Signals
Social data shows 64% of online commentary about Bitcoin is bullish, the highest level since July, reflecting strong optimism ahead of the Fed’s announcement. However, history suggests markets often move against the crowd. While a rate cut could drive Bitcoin higher in the short term, a surprise decision to hold rates steady might spark a swift correction.
On the technical side, crypto investor Jelle noted that Bitcoin’s weekly stochastic RSI has flipped bullish, a signal that has historically led to average rallies of 35%. If history repeats, Bitcoin could surge toward $155,000.
Similarly, Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson predicts a more dramatic rise, suggesting that BTC could reach $200,000 within 170 days, citing repeating cycle patterns rather than traditional technical analysis.
Bearish Voices Remain Cautious
Despite the bullish price predictions for BTC, not every analysts is optimistic about the crypto asset. Peter Schiff, a long-time gold advocate and Bitcoin critic, warned that BTC might be “topping out” as it struggles to break decisively past $116,000.
According to Schiff, gold and silver have recently broken out, while Bitcoin is losing momentum. His warning comes just before the pivotal Fed meeting, adding weight to bearish arguments.
Bitcoin has gained 4% over the past week, but strong resistance near $116,000 remains a critical barrier. If BTC fails to hold support following the Fed’s decision, technical traders may reduce risk exposure or step aside, while a clean breakout above resistance could invalidate topping concernsand ignite fresh buying.
Macro Outlook
The broader market is divided. While some expect up to three rate cuts later this year, CryptoQuant data shows that eight of ten bull market indicators have turned bearish, signaling waning momentum.
Despite these warning signs, many traders believe that the macroeconomic environment still favors Bitcoin, especially if the Fed’s policies usher in greater liquidity and lower borrowing costs.
Outlook
With the FOMC meeting set for September 17, traders are closely watching volume on rallies, Bitcoin’s ability to close above $116,000, and the Fed’s official announcement. These factors will likely determine Bitcoin’s next major move in the coming weeks.