Bitcoin experienced a notable recovery on Monday, climbing to $112,082 over the past 24 hours, according to CoinDesk data.
Despite this rebound, the world’s largest cryptocurrency remains approximately 11% below its record high, which was reached last month.
BTC‘s sudden price increase coincided with U.S. President Donald Trump’s last-minute efforts to hold talks with congressional leaders to prevent a potential government shutdown. Analysts suggest that while a shutdown could negatively impact the broader market, it may temporarily boost crypto assets as investors look for alternatives to fiat currencies.
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Meanwhile, gold prices surged to a new all-time high, reaching $3,800 per ounce during Asian trading hours. This rally was fueled by a weakening U.S. dollar following recent Federal Reserve rate cuts and heightened geopolitical tensions, driving investors toward safe-haven assets.
The surge in gold prices has sparked debate among analysts about what it might mean for Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold.” While October is typically viewed as a bullish month for Bitcoin earning the nickname “Uptober”, current market conditions are showing mixed signals.
CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn highlighted that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has turned negative, noting that gold is now rallying while Bitcoin struggles to gain traction. “Gold surges while Bitcoin dips. The negative correlation between the two persists,” Maartunn explained, adding that gold’s performance reflects a flight to safety, while Bitcoin tends to rally when investor confidence rises.
Despite this, some market watchers remain optimistic. Ted Pillows, an investor and analyst, predicts that Bitcoin could follow gold’s rally and potentially reach $150,000 by the end of Q4. Historical data appear to support Bitcoin’s long-term potential as a savings vehicle.
One market observer posted on X, showing that saving $50 per week in Bitcoin since 2020 would have turned $15,000 into 0.58 BTC, now worth over $63,000. In contrast, the same savings plan in gold would have yielded just over $28,000.
Bitcoin Bullish Projection
Despite last week’s intense volatility, analysts at XWIN Research Japan believe Bitcoin’s bull market remains intact. In a note shared on CryptoQuant, the firm highlighted on-chain data such as long-term holder behavior and Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio as indicators of underlying market strength.
The MVRV ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to the average cost basis of holders, has dropped to 2, indicating a market that has cooled from overheated conditions but is far from panic selling.
“Bitcoin’s recent pullbacks appear less like the end of a rally and more like a period of digestion,” XWIN stated, suggesting that Bitcoin may soon enter “its strongest expansion phase.” Similarly, crypto investor Mike Novogratz suggested that Bitcoin could smash $200,000 if the Federal Reserve adopts an extremely dovish policy stance.
Market Liquidations and Volatility
Bitcoin’s recovery follows a turbulent week marked by two massive liquidation events, which wiped out over $4 billion in long positions. On Monday September 22, 2025, nearly $3 billion was liquidated as Bitcoin fell 3% below $112,000. On Thursday, another $1 billion was erased when Bitcoin briefly dropped to $109,000.
CoinGlass data showed that Bitcoin accounted for $726 million of the first liquidation, while Ether (ETH) led Thursday’s losses with $413 million in liquidated long positions.
Following these events, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index shifted back to a “Neutral” sentiment level for the first time since Sept. 19, signaling a recovery from the recent phase of market fear.
For Bitcoin to maintain its upward momentum, analysts note it must break above the $112,500 resistance zone. If the asset fails to do so, a fresh decline could occur, with key support levels at $111,300 immediate support.
Future Outlook
As gold continues to climb to historic highs and U.S. political uncertainty weighs on traditional markets, Bitcoin’s trajectory remains uncertain.
While negative correlation with gold suggests short-term challenges, analysts maintain that Bitcoin’s strong fundamentals and long-term investor behavior indicate a bullish market structure heading into the final quarter of 2025.