Beijing on Thursday dismissed claims from Washington that a thaw in trade relations might be on the horizon, even as signals from the White House suggest a subtle shift in tone amid concerns about the long-term economic toll of the U.S.-China tariff war.
“There are absolutely no negotiations on the economy and trade between China and the U.S.,” said He Yadong, spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Commerce, during a press briefing. He pushed back against suggestions of progress, stating that “all sayings” about resumed talks should be disregarded.
The remarks came in response to comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent earlier in the week, who described the current state of trade tensions with China as “unsustainable,” a comment widely interpreted by analysts as a calculated nudge intended to draw Beijing back to the negotiating table—without President Trump appearing to make the first move. Bessent’s statement was followed by Trump himself characterizing China’s retaliatory 145% tariffs as “too high,” though he clarified that the U.S. does not plan to lower tariffs to zero either.
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“They’re not going to be 155%,” Trump said. “We’re going to find a better place, and I think Xi and I will get along just nicely.” His language, while less hostile than in past statements, was still short of any formal offer or olive branch.
Beijing, however, appears unmoved. A separate statement from Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun reiterated that no discussions are taking place and emphasized that any meaningful engagement would require the U.S. to treat China as an equal partner.
“If the U.S. really wants to resolve the problem, it should cancel all the unilateral measures on China,” He Yadong repeated during his briefing.
Despite these public positions, experts say both sides remain locked in a complicated chess match, with each waiting for the other to make the next substantive move. While Beijing says it’s open to talks, the current signals from Washington are still seen as insufficient.
“China definitely wants to see the trade war deescalate, as it hurts both economies,” said Yue Su, principal economist for China at The Economist Intelligence Institute. “But given the inconsistency of Trump’s policies and the lack of clarity around what he actually wants, China has shifted its strategy. It’s now focusing more on what Beijing itself needs, not just what the U.S. demands.”
Several economists and market watchers believe Bessent’s framing of the situation as “unsustainable” wasn’t accidental. Instead, it’s viewed as part of a backdoor effort to entice Beijing into informal talks by highlighting shared economic concerns. Yet without concrete action such as pausing tariffs or scaling back inflammatory rhetoric, the stalemate is unlikely to break.
Brian Tycangco, an analyst at Stansberry Research who focuses on China and broader Asian markets, said the problem isn’t that Beijing is unwilling to deal. It’s the context Washington is creating.
“I really can’t see it happening yet. And I don’t think it’s because Beijing doesn’t want to make a deal. They do,” Tycangco said. “But Trump needs to tell his vehemently anti-China advisors to ease up on the ‘China-bad, China-is-our-sworn-enemy’ rhetoric. And announce a 60-day pause on China tariffs to give the other side a reason to call.”
That kind of move, Tycangco argued, could offer Beijing a face-saving reason to re-engage without appearing to bow to U.S. pressure. So far, China has responded to each of Washington’s tariff hikes with countermeasures of its own. This month’s 145% tariff from the U.S. triggered new Chinese duties and increased restrictions on the export of critical minerals—moves that risk cascading into a full-blown economic confrontation.
In the meantime, Chinese officials say they’re shifting focus. The Commerce Ministry said Thursday it is prioritizing helping Chinese exporters redirect goods intended for the U.S. to domestic markets or alternative trading partners, especially in Southeast Asia, which has overtaken the European Union as China’s largest regional trading partner.
Some analysts warn that if the White House’s mixed signals continue, China may dig in further.
“We also need to recognize that this is a ‘whatever it takes’ moment for China in terms of U.S.-China relations,” said Yue Su. “I wouldn’t be surprised if China adopts a more hawkish stance if the U.S. continues to escalate tensions.”
Economists at Wall Street banks have already downgraded China’s GDP outlook in recent weeks, citing both the direct impact of tariffs and the chilling effect on global trade sentiment. At the same time, there’s growing pressure in Washington to deliver a breakthrough or explain why years of aggressive trade policy have yet to yield significant strategic gains.
“From China’s perspective, any meaningful negotiations will likely require the U.S. to reduce tariffs to the previous 20% or even lower level,” said Jianwei Xu, senior economist for Greater China at Natixis. “But for the Trump administration, reducing tariffs too far could raise uncomfortable questions: What was the point of the confrontation if we end up back where we started?”
With both sides entrenched and neither willing to be the first to blink, a breakthrough remains elusive—for now. Whether Beijing calls Washington’s bluff or Washington drops the bravado to pick up the phone may ultimately decide how soon the world’s two biggest economies stop circling each other and start talking.