OPEC+ has agreed in principle to increase its collective oil production quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, three sources familiar with the group’s talks told Reuters on Sunday.
The move, however, amounts to little more than a paper adjustment while the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran continues to paralyze the world’s most vital oil artery.
The decision, which mirrors the increase approved for April, comes as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February has caused the largest single supply disruption ever recorded, removing an estimated 12 to 15 million barrels per day — up to 15% of global supply. With physical production severely curtailed by damage to Gulf infrastructure and ongoing attacks, the quota hike is widely viewed as symbolic, signaling the group’s readiness to flood the market with additional barrels the moment the strait reopens.
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Increasing output appears to be the only viable short-term option left for OPEC+ to help moderate the punishing price surge triggered by the shutdown. Crude has already climbed to a four-year high near $120 a barrel, and JPMorgan warned Thursday that prices could spike above $150, an all-time record, if the disruption drags into mid-May.
Gulf officials have privately told industry contacts that repairing damaged facilities and restoring full export capacity could take months, even if hostilities cease and the strait is reopened immediately. Russia, another major OPEC+ member, remains hobbled by Western sanctions and infrastructure damage from its war in Ukraine, leaving only a handful of producers with any meaningful spare capacity.
The timing of Sunday’s meetings added to the sense of urgency. Ministers from the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee were scheduled to convene around 1300 GMT, followed by separate talks among the eight core members who actually set production policy. These eight nations had spent most of 2025 unwinding 2.9 million bpd of earlier cuts before pausing further increases for the first three months of 2026.
A source close to the discussions described the May adjustment as largely “academic” while Hormuz remains blocked. Energy Aspects, a respected consultancy, called the increase “academic” as long as the physical constraints persist.
Tensions escalated further on Easter Sunday when President Donald Trump issued an expletive-laden post on Truth Social threatening direct strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges if the strait is not reopened.
“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!” Trump wrote. “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH!”
He ended the post with the sarcastic sign-off: “Praise be to Allah.”
The president also announced he would hold a news conference in the Oval Office on Monday, following the U.S. military’s rescue of two American pilots whose aircraft were downed over Iran.
Iran, for its part, said on Saturday it would exempt Iraqi tankers from restrictions on using the strait. Shipping data on Sunday showed at least one tanker carrying Iraqi crude had successfully transited the waterway, but sources cautioned that few ship owners are willing to risk their vessels and crews until the security situation dramatically improves.
The war has exposed the fragility of global energy security. With the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil and LNG, effectively shuttered for more than a month, traditional market-balancing mechanisms have been rendered almost powerless.
OPEC+’s modest quota increase is one of the few tools still available to signal that additional supply could eventually reach the market, even if the actual barrels remain trapped behind the conflict.
There is little hope that this symbolic step, combined with Trump’s increasingly bellicose rhetoric, will pressure Tehran to reopen the strait.
However, with physical supply severely constrained and repair timelines stretching into months, traders and consuming nations are left hoping that diplomacy, or force, can restore the flow before prices inflict even greater damage on the global economy.