OpenAI is reportedly preparing to trial ads inside ChatGPT’s Android beta, as profit has significantly failed to catch up with the exploding user base and ballooning infrastructure bill.

An analysis by HSBC Global Investment Research concludes that OpenAI still isn’t likely to be profitable by 2030 — and warns the firm will need at least US$207 billion in additional funding to sustain its growth plans.

HSBC’s projection includes a scenario in which, by 2030, ChatGPT and related services reach roughly 44 percent of the world’s adult population (up from about 10 percent in 2025).

Yet even under this optimistic adoption scenario — and after assuming robust subscription and enterprise-AI growth — the infrastructure and compute burden threatens to overwhelm revenues. HSBC models show roughly US$792 billion in cloud and AI infrastructure costs from late 2025 to 2030, with a data-center rental bill of about US$620 billion alone.

Longer term, commitments balloon further: compute obligations could reach US$1.4 trillion by 2033 under current deals.

That math explains why OpenAI reportedly is already seeking more funding, even while it experiments with ads. The ad test may be part of a broader strategy to diversify revenue streams beyond paid plans and enterprise deals — precisely because the compute and infrastructure costs are so staggering, they can swallow growth if not offset by fresh capital or new revenue models.

Why The Infrastructure Costs Are So Massive

The pressure stems largely from recent multiyear cloud-compute and data-center rental deals that lock in enormous capacity commitments. Among them are a roughly US$250 billion agreement with Microsoft and a US$38 billion deal with Amazon Web Services (AWS), combining to secure around 36 gigawatts of AI compute power by the end of the decade.

To put that into perspective: HSBC’s analysts estimate that even with such deals, OpenAI’s “free cash flow + other liquidity” through 2030 would remain negative, leaving the US$207 billion gap.

Because AI models — and their inference demand from millions of users — scale rapidly, compute costs grow rapidly. The larger and more widely used the models become, the more infrastructure you need: data centers, specialized hardware, cooling, electricity, bandwidth, and maintenance. For a platform forecasting widespread global adoption, this translates into high recurrent costs, not one-off capital expenditures.

This high fixed-cost structure helps explain the company’s pursuit of non-subscription revenue streams like advertising: they may be essential to closing the widening deficit.

Ads Inside ChatGPT: A Potential Survival Mechanism — with Trade-offs

That brings us back to the ad test in ChatGPT’s Android beta. For OpenAI, ads offer a way to monetize the conversation and search traffic generated by its hundreds of millions — soon billions — of users. If properly implemented, ads could tap into digital ad budgets just like search engines or social platforms do, but with far greater targeting precision, thanks to the conversational and contextual signals available.

At a time when infrastructure spending threatens to outstrip even aggressive revenue forecasts, the ad strategy may reflect more than a convenience — it could be part of a lifeline to keep the platform afloat without perpetual infusions of external capital.

But that approach carries risks: delivering ads inside conversational AI could erode user trust, blur the lines between unbiased information and commercial content, and raise privacy concerns — especially when the system already handles personal data. For a tool many use for work, research, education, coding, or writing, introducing commercial placements changes the value proposition substantially.

What This Means for the Broader AI and Tech Industry

OpenAI’s situation encapsulates a fundamental tension now emerging across the frontier-AI industry: scaling to global reach demands massive compute infrastructure, but monetizing that scale — via subscriptions, enterprise sales, ads — remains uncertain. HSBC’s analysis suggests that even with high growth, the cash flows are unlikely to catch up to the cost curve without continuous capital infusions or breakthroughs in monetization.

For investors, cloud providers, chipmakers, and other infrastructure partners, that raises critical questions: Is the current AI megacycle sustainable, or is the industry building what some analysts now call a “money pit with a website on top”?

It also means regulators, privacy advocates, and users need to watch closely. As AI platforms like ChatGPT play an increasingly central role in how people access information, learn, work, and create, their business models will shape not only the tools themselves but the incentives behind them — from what kind of content gets surfaced to how user data is used and monetized.

Ecobank Nigeria Limited has launched a tender offer for the remaining US$150 million of its US$300 million 7.125% Senior Note Participation Notes due 2026, marking the second phase of an ongoing effort to tidy up its external obligations ahead of schedule and settle legacy issues on its balance sheet.

The offer opened on Friday, 28 November 2025, giving eligible noteholders the option to sell their securities ahead of the original maturity date of 16 February 2026. According to the lender, investors whose notes are accepted will receive US$1,000 per US$1,000 principal, together with accrued and unpaid interest up to but excluding the settlement date. The settlement is expected on or before 31 December 2025.

Ecobank framed the transaction as part of a long-running “proactive approach to liability management”, aimed at strengthening capital planning flexibility and maintaining a more orderly debt composition in a period marked by uncertain macroeconomic conditions. Participation remains voluntary for noteholders.

The move builds on the bank’s early repayment four months ago, when it redeemed US$150 million, half of the same Eurobond, through a tender offer and exit consent process in July 2025. That intervention was one of the most significant steps in the bank’s liquidity reset. It was enabled by healthier cash flows, stronger loan recoveries, and the early repayment of promissory notes from its parent company, Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI).

At the time of the July buyback, the bond traded near par, signaling firm investor confidence in Nigeria’s subsidiary of the pan-African banking group. Bondholders also supported the removal of a capital adequacy ratio covenant that had constrained the bank after its CAR slid to 7.65% earlier in 2024, below the 10% minimum for national banks. The drop was driven largely by heavy exchange rate depreciation in Nigeria.

Since then, Ecobank Nigeria has pushed an internal recovery programme that centers on stronger profit performance, strict operating discipline, and support from ETI. The bank had previously said it intended to redeem the remaining US$150 million at maturity in February 2026, subject to market conditions. This fresh tender offer now accelerates that plan by roughly two months.

Why This Matters

The tender offer arrives at a moment when Nigerian banks are aggressively rethinking portfolio risk after a turbulent two years of currency volatility, inflation pressure, and persistent monetary tightening. For Ecobank, retiring foreign debt early reduces rollover risk, limits future interest expense, and puts it in a position to enter 2026 with a leaner external funding book.

Financial analysts say this decision will likely help preserve investor confidence in the lender and in Nigeria’s banking sector more broadly. Global borrowing costs remain elevated, and refinancing any foreign currency debt has become more expensive. By settling the bond ahead of time, the bank sidesteps the uncertainty of raising fresh dollar funding in a volatile environment.

The early liability reduction also gives investors room to tidy up their portfolios before the year closes, particularly those seeking to rebalance exposures ahead of anticipated rate decisions in early 2026.

The strategy aligns with broader moves at the Group level. Ecobank Transnational Incorporated reduced its total borrowed funds by 15% to N2.83 trillion as of September 2025, now representing 6% of total assets, down from 8% in December 2024. Group executives have repeatedly signaled that lowering leverage is a central priority.

Building on Group Momentum

Ecobank Nigeria’s actions cannot be separated from the wider momentum of the ETI Group, which enters 2026 in a stronger financial shape. The bank delivered one of its most impressive quarterly earnings performances in years during Q3 2025. Pre-tax profit rose 47% year-on-year to N394.6 billion, while post-tax profit climbed 48% to N268.5 billion. The momentum extended through the nine-month period, with pre-tax profit hitting N1.01 trillion, up 42% year-on-year, and profit after tax rising 43% to N702.4 billion.

The earnings expansion came even as the Group absorbed higher impairment charges and recorded a one-off loss from discontinued operations. Cost management played a major role. Operating expenses increased only 3% to N446.2 billion in Q3, an outcome the Group views as a win given steep inflation and currency swings across its markets.

The balance sheet remained sturdy. Total assets rose 11% to N47.97 trillion, largely lifted by customer deposits, which reached N35.68 trillion and accounted for nearly three-quarters of the entire asset base. Higher impairment charges — up 64% to N129.7 billion — signaled a more cautious posture, but analysts say the Group’s profitability gave it room to absorb the impact.

The Bigger Picture

Ecobank’s accelerated debt retirement underscores a trend that has grown more visible across African banking in the past two years: the shift toward tighter balance sheets, trimmed foreign currency exposure, and a broader push to insulate operations from global financial swings.

For Nigeria in particular, where the banking sector has been navigating the sharpest currency reset in decades, steps like this offer reassurance that systemically important lenders are building buffers ahead of 2026 regulatory adjustments.

The success of this tender will also inform investor views on how well Nigerian banks manage foreign liabilities at a time when access to global credit markets remains uneven.

China’s technology giant Baidu, which operates the country’s largest search engine, initiated a round of large-scale layoffs this week that is expected to hit multiple business units and run until the end of the year.

This aggressive restructuring move, confirmed by six sources briefed on the matter, follows the company’s recent report of a disappointing third-quarter net loss on November 18, underscoring the twin pressures of intensifying competition in artificial intelligence (AI) and the continued decline of its core online advertising business.

While the total, companywide number of jobs being cut could not be immediately established, the sources told Reuters the workforce reduction is internally perceived to be of a large-scale nature. The severity of the cuts is not uniform; layoff numbers vary significantly by business unit and performance ratings, with some teams facing reductions as high as 40%, according to two of the sources.

The job reductions are primarily a response to financial strain and market shifts. The layoffs follow Baidu’s second straight quarterly revenue decline, with total revenue falling 7% and the crucial online advertising revenue dropping 18% in the third quarter year-over-year. For the period, Baidu posted a substantial net loss of 11.23 billion yuan ($1.59 billion), a stark reversal from profit a year prior, primarily driven by asset impairment charges.

In response to these headwinds, the company is executing a definitive pivot by reallocating resources to high-growth, high-value areas. This means roles tied to AI and cloud computing will largely be protected, with one source noting that more resources would be directed into the AI division, signaling that long-term technological leadership remains the central ambition despite short-term profitability challenges.

Conversely, the Mobile Ecosystem Group (MEG) is expected to bear the brunt of the staff reductions, as this legacy unit is heavily exposed to the contracting online advertising market. Baidu’s workforce already stood at 35,900 at the end of last year, down from 39,800 in 2023 and 41,300 in 2022, indicating a multi-year trend of cost rationalization.

The Losing Ground in the AI Race

The deep cuts underscore Baidu’s failure to translate its multi-year, multi-billion-dollar investment in AI into a revival for its core growth. While Baidu was the first major Chinese tech firm to roll out a ChatGPT-style service, Ernie Bot, in 2023, it has struggled to maintain its early lead against agile competitors. Its large language model is now trailing offerings from rivals, including Alibaba and, notably, the fast-growing AI start-up DeepSeek.

The challenge is most apparent in user adoption figures: in September, Baidu’s Ernie Bot app recorded only 10.77 million monthly active users, significantly lower than the 150 million for ByteDance’s Doubao and 73.4 million for DeepSeek, according to AI product tracker Aicpb.com. Baidu’s attempts to gain ground through strategy shifts, including making its Ernie model open source earlier this year, have not yet closed the gap.

Nevertheless, Baidu remains committed to its AI push, focusing on embedding the technology into existing products. It states that more than half of its mobile search result pages now include AI-generated content, aiming to modernize user experience and drive future monetization.

However, this massive job reduction is part of a broader, global trend: major Chinese internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent slashed tens of thousands of jobs in 2022 following a broad regulatory crackdown, and major U.S. tech companies such as Amazon and IBM have also announced thousands of job cuts globally, making cost reduction and AI prioritization the dominant narrative across the tech sector.