Amid soaring tensions in the Gulf following U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday urged China to use its leverage with Tehran to prevent any attempt by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz — a move that has begun to upend the global oil market and further escalate the crisis.
“I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the Straits of Hormuz for their oil,” Rubio said during an appearance on Fox News.
His remarks follow reports from Iranian state media suggesting that Iran’s parliament is backing a possible closure of the key maritime route. However, the final decision rests with the country’s national security council.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but strategic chokepoint between Iran and Oman, is the most critical oil transit route in the world. In 2024, approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil per day — about 20% of global consumption — passed through the strait, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Iran’s threat to block the passage has sent shockwaves through global markets. While many believe the U.S. Navy, led by the Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain, would act swiftly to neutralize any blockade, some experts warn that the consequences may not be as short-lived or containable as assumed.
“They could disrupt, in our view, shipping through Hormuz by a lot longer than the market thinks,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy and former White House energy adviser. “It would not be a cakewalk.”
Oil Prices React Swiftly
Global oil prices reacted immediately to the escalating standoff. At the start of Sunday’s trading session — the first since the U.S. bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan — futures rose sharply.
U.S. crude climbed $1.76, or 2.38%, to $75.60 per barrel.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged $1.80, or 2.34%, to $78.81 per barrel after earlier spiking over 5.7% to reach $81.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Rapidan Energy warned that if Iran follows through with a closure of the strait, oil prices could shoot above $100 per barrel, especially if the disruption is prolonged.
China Holds a Key Card
Iran exports an estimated 1.6 million barrels of oil per day — nearly 80% of which goes to China. That heavy reliance on the strait makes Beijing a crucial player in the unfolding crisis.
Rubio’s remarks underline growing U.S. expectations that China, despite its alignment with Iran in broader geopolitical terms, would intervene diplomatically to preserve its own energy security and global market stability.
“It would be economic suicide for Iran to close the strait,” Rubio warned. “It would hurt other countries’ economies a lot worse than ours. It would be, I think, a massive escalation that would merit a response, not just by us, but from others.”
Iran’s Response and Escalation Risk
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian responded defiantly on Sunday, saying the Islamic Republic “reserves all options to defend its sovereignty.” The statement came less than 24 hours after the U.S. confirmed a coordinated air assault on three of Iran’s top nuclear sites — marking the most direct American military action against Iran in recent years.
While Iran’s parliament has supported closing the strait in retaliation, the decision ultimately lies with the country’s Supreme National Security Council. That makes the current phase one of intense uncertainty, where rhetoric could quickly translate into action.
Closing the Strait of Hormuz would not only impact oil shipments but also those of liquefied natural gas (LNG), as Qatar, another major Gulf exporter, also relies on the route.
The geopolitical tremor has come at a time when global energy markets were already jittery over supply cuts, a sluggish Chinese economy, and increasing volatility from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Now, with a direct U.S.-Iran military confrontation and a potential maritime blockade looming, traders are bracing for further instability.
Analysts believe that whether the situation de-escalates will hinge on multiple diplomatic levers: pressure from China, strategic restraint from Iran, and a broader international response led by Washington to keep the strait open.
