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Home Blog Page 110

Understanding MicroStrategy’s mNAV Premium

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

MicroStrategy now rebranded as Strategy in some contexts, but still trading as $MSTR has long been known for its aggressive Bitcoin treasury strategy, holding 649,870 BTC as of late November 2025, valued at approximately $61.7 billion at current prices around $95,000 per BTC.

The company’s stock has historically traded at a significant premium to its modified Net Asset Value (mNAV), a metric that compares the enterprise value market cap plus debt minus cash to the value of its Bitcoin holdings.

This premium—peaking at nearly 4x in late 2024—reflected investor enthusiasm for CEO Michael Saylor’s “leveraged Bitcoin” model, where equity and debt issuances funded BTC purchases, creating a virtuous cycle of accumulation and share price appreciation.

However, mNAV has collapsed dramatically in 2025, falling below 1x trading at a discount to BTC holdings for the first time since early 2024. As of November 25, 2025, it hovers near parity around 1.0x–1.1x, with the stock down ~60% from its 2025 peak of $543.

This has sparked debates: Is the premium structurally broken, or is this a temporary compression amid a Bitcoin correction, BTC is down ~15% from its October high.

The Premium Has Vanished—But Is It Permanent?

No, the mNAV premium is not “gone for good” in a structural sense, but its return to historical highs (2x+) looks unlikely without a major Bitcoin bull run or renewed conviction in Saylor’s model. The compression reflects a “rational repricing” of risks, not a death knell for the strategy.

BTC fell from $107K (Oct) to $95K, pushing mNAV below 1x on Nov 12 (0.97x). Stock rebounded slightly to $210–$254 post-earnings. Temporary; historical patterns show mNAV rebounds with BTC (e.g., from 0.7x in May 2022 to 3.4x by late 2024).

Analysts like Standard Chartered see this as “correction exhaustion,” predicting recovery. Premium enables accretive issuance; near 1x turns it dilutive. Raised $20B in 2025 via equity, convertibles, and preferreds (e.g., €660M in Nov). Abandoned “no issuance below 2.5x mNAV” policy in Aug, eroding trust.

Q3 BTC buys slowed to 43K vs. 80K in Q1. Preferreds 8–10% yields provide funding but burden common equity, capping upside. Dilutes MSTR’s uniqueness, compressing premium. New entrants like MetaPlanet, Twenty One Capital and ETFs offer direct/cheaper exposure, reducing MSTR’s “moat.” mNAV fell to 1.32x by Oct.

Premium now ~18-month low 1.2x–1.3x avg. Could stabilize at 1.1x–1.5x if MSTR leads adoption. High debt $8.2B, 7–10% costs + negative software cash flow $100M loss in 2025. Total liabilities exceed cash; index exclusion risk (e.g., Nasdaq-100) could trigger $2.8B–$8.8B outflows in Feb 2026.

Manageable short-term: No major maturities until 2027; refinancing possible. But sustained mNAV <1x risks “death spiral” forced BTC sales for buybacks. Hedge funds like Jim Chanos profited from short MSTR/long BTC, closing positions as premium fell 60% from $80B to $15B implied.

Recent 6% stock jump on Nov 23 BTC buy announcement; institutional holders steady. Saylor’s “HODL” conviction intact. mNAV isn’t static—it’s emergent from market dynamics. It dipped to 0.7x in 2022’s bear market but expanded 5x in the subsequent bull. No treasury company has sustained <1x long-term without intervention.

Even at 1x, MSTR outperforms direct BTC in bull phases via yield 27.8% YTD BTC-per-share growth. Preferred stock sales like STRK at 8–10% dividends fund buys without full dilution, though they cap common upside. BTC rebound to $100K+ could restore 1.5x–2x mNAV.

S&P 500 inclusion still possible or corporate adoption wave might reignite premium. Q3 earnings beat expectations $10B net income, +7,100% YoY, showing underlying strength.

Peter Schiff, and Chanos argue the model is “fraudulent” or unsustainable—high costs, executive sales, and premium reliance make it vulnerable. If BTC stagnates, dilution could force sales, but probability is low debt buffer ~7.75x holdings.

The mNAV premium isn’t extinct—it’s compressed amid a risk-off crypto winter, echoing past cycles. MSTR remains a high-conviction BTC play for bulls outpacing BTC in recoveries, but risks like dilution and outflows make it riskier than spot ETFs.

At current levels ~1.0x–1.1x, it’s arguably undervalued for long-term holders betting on BTC’s upside, but short-term volatility could test 0.9x. Watch BTC’s $90K support and Dec index decisions for clues. If you’re in, it’s a “buy the fear” moment; if not, direct BTC exposure avoids the drama.

Tekedia Capital Welcomes Nozomio

By
Ndubuisi Ekekwe
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0

Tekedia Capital joins Paul Graham (a founder of YCombinator), executives in OpenAI, and other global investors to seed Nozomio, with $6.2 million, under the solo and singular one-person coding prodigy Arlan Rakhmetzhanov.

Arlan’s story is a magical one: from Kazakhstan to Silicon Valley for an advanced context augmentation system for AI agents . We wish this secondary school dropout the best of luck as he takes Nozomio to the next level.

Kalshi’s Rapid Valuation Surge and the Emerging Prediction Market Duopoly

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

Prediction markets—platforms where users bet on real-world outcomes like elections, sports, or economic events—have exploded in popularity since the 2024 U.S. presidential race.

What started as niche tools for gauging sentiment are now seen as scalable infrastructure for event-based trading, blending elements of betting, forecasting, and financial derivatives.

At the center of this boom are two dominant players: Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated U.S.-based exchange, and Polymarket, a blockchain-native platform that’s pushing for broader U.S. access.

Recent funding rounds have propelled their combined private valuations above $25 billion, signaling investor confidence in a concentrated “duopoly” where these two platforms capture the lion’s share of liquidity and activity, rather than a fragmented field of dozens of startups.

Kalshi’s Valuation Trajectory From $5B to $11B in Weeks

Kalshi’s growth has been meteoric. Just last week, the company closed a $1 billion funding round led by Sequoia Capital and Alphabet’s CapitalG, valuing it at $11 billion—more than double its $5 billion mark from an October 2025 Series D round that raised over $300 million from backers including Andreessen Horowitz and Paradigm.

This brings Kalshi’s total funding to roughly $1.6 billion. Post-election volume surge; expanded to sports betting. Hit $50B annualized volume; global expansion to 140+ countries. Record $1.3B quarterly inflows; 60% market share in volumes.

This “doubling in weeks” reflects over $1.3 billion in fresh capital committed to Kalshi this quarter alone, driven by its pivot from politics to high-volume categories like sports like NFL outcomes and crypto events.

Open interest (OI) now stands at $320 million, nearing 2024 election peaks, with November on track for record volumes exceeding $7 billion industry-wide.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket

Investors aren’t spreading bets across the sector—they’re doubling down on Kalshi and Polymarket as the “default venues” for event risk trading.

Polymarket, which runs on Polygon’s blockchain with USDC settlements, is reportedly negotiating a new round at $12-15 billion, up from $9 billion in an October 2025 deal backed by up to $2 billion from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE, owner of the NYSE).

This would push the duo’s combined valuation past $25 billion, a concentration unseen in recent crypto/fintech cycles like NFTs or AI startups. CFTC greenlight for U.S. via licensed venue; $259M weekly volume.

POLY token airdrop hype; 40% market share. Deep liquidity on just two platforms will dominate, much like DraftKings and FanDuel in sports betting. Kalshi holds ~60% volume share, while Polymarket’s on-chain data shows ~40%, with OI at $300 million.

Together, they’ve captured over $7 billion in volume since September, outpacing rivals. Kalshi’s CFTC license provides a “moat” for U.S. users, enabling fiat-based trading without crypto volatility. Polymarket’s U.S. re-entry via a derivatives venue adds legitimacy, with ICE integration potentially feeding data into Wall Street terminals.

Post-2024 election, volumes have 3x’d. Kalshi hit top of Apple’s Finance app charts with 1.3 million users; Polymarket’s decentralized model allows instant market creation hundreds live vs. Kalshi’s 10+. Sports now rivals politics as the top category.

Polymarket’s upcoming POLY token and airdrop inject crypto upside. Kalshi’s Robinhood partnership targets retail, while both use central limit order books (CLOBs) for better liquidity.

These aren’t just bets—they’re sentiment oracles for hedging (e.g., election impacts on stocks). Bank of America calls them “untaxed gambling,” but volumes suggest institutional interest.

Fiat/KYC focus; strong in U.S. sports/politics; resolution via third-party sources for nuance. Slower market launches, higher fees critics note wide spreads.

Polymarket: On-chain, global access; UMA Oracle for resolutions censorship-resistant but controversial. Zero fees, fast creation. U.S. restrictions until recently.

Both emphasize professional market makers, CLOBs, and similar categories. The battle shifts to distribution—Kalshi via apps like Robinhood, Polymarket via X partnerships and crypto wallets.

Critics argue prediction markets erode retail capital with poor odds, and resolutions remain contentious. Regulatory scrutiny could intensify, especially on “gambling” labels. Yet, with clearer paths and $25B+ in backing, the duopoly looks locked in.

If volumes hit $10B+ monthly, expect IPOs or tokens by 2026, reshaping how we price uncertainty. As one investor noted, they’ve “created a new market out of thin air.”

China’s Top Economic Planner Flags Bubble Risk in Humanoid Robotics Sector Amid National Growth Push

By
Samuel Nwite
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1

China’s leading economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), has issued a rare note of public caution regarding the rapidly escalating investment in the domestic humanoid robotics sector, warning that a speculative bubble may be brewing.

NDRC spokesperson Li Chao delivered the alert on Thursday, emphasizing that China’s humanoid robotics industry must find a delicate balance between “the speed of growth against the risk of bubbles,” particularly as more than 150 humanoid robotics companies, over half of which are startups or entrants from other industries, flood the market with highly similar models despite a scarcity of proven mass use cases.

While the NDRC seeks to establish better market entry and exit mechanisms and consolidate R&D resources to prevent this overcapacity, leading domestic companies like UBTech Robotics are simultaneously demonstrating significant technological commercialization that both fuels the investment frenzy and provides crucial validation for Beijing’s national strategy.

UBTech’s Industrial and Technological Milestones

UBTech, a Shenzhen-based company and one of the few publicly listed pure-play humanoid robot firms globally, has been at the forefront of translating academic ambition into industrial reality, focusing on three major scenarios: industrial manufacturing, commercial services, and household companionship.

The company has successfully executed a closed-loop commercial cycle from R&D to mass delivery and iterative improvement, providing the industry with a replicable model for scaled deployment. Its key achievements include:

  • Mass Delivery and Industrial Adoption: UBTech has achieved the world’s first mass delivery of industrial humanoid robots with its Walker S2 series. These robots are already being deployed in real-world industrial settings, notably in automotive manufacturing—collaborating with major players like BYD, Geely Auto, and FAW-Volkswagen—as well as in smart factories, intelligent logistics, and data collection centers. The company has accumulated orders exceeding 800 million yuan (approximately $112 million), with significant contracts including a 159 million yuan order to deploy Walker S2 units at a data collection center in Zigong.
  • Autonomous Operational Capability: The Walker S2 is distinguished as the world’s first industrial humanoid robot integrated with Co-Agent, UBTech’s proprietary intelligent agent system. This system grants the robot closed-loop operational capabilities, allowing for intention understanding, task planning, tool usage, and autonomous anomaly detection. Furthermore, the company successfully unveiled the Walker S2 model as the world’s first humanoid robot capable of autonomously replacing its own batteries, potentially enabling continuous, 24-hour operation on the factory floor without human assistance.
  • Strategic Government Contracts: Expanding beyond traditional manufacturing, UBTech has secured a substantial contract valued at $37 million (USD) to trial its Walker robots at a major border crossing near Vietnam. In alignment with Beijing’s push to integrate advanced robotics into public services, these humanoids will assist with border management duties, traveler guidance, and logistics, showcasing their utility in high-stakes public service and security environments.

This intense drive toward embodied intelligence—the technology behind humanoid robotics—is viewed by the Chinese government as a national priority and one of the six key industries for future economic growth through 2030.

While NDRC spokesperson Li Chao rightly cautions that large-scale, widespread adoption by households or general factories has yet to materialize, the rapid technological breakthroughs and multi-million-dollar industrial contracts secured by companies like UBTech underscore the significant momentum and the high stakes involved in China’s race to lead the global robotics industry.

How Sky’s Halo Is a Business Lesson in Balancing Demographic Appeal

By
TI Partners
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0

Aiming a product or a service at a given demographic is tough. Get it right, and you can have a lifelong fanbase. Get it wrong, and the backlash can be immense. So how do companies navigate this most tricky of situations in the digital era, and does demographic even matter anymore in the age of digital solutions?

Sky’s Halo Service

After three days in mid-November, broadcasting giant Sky decided to axe its new female-focused TikTok channel. The backlash to it had been extremely negative, with many branding it patronising and sexist. One commentator even described it as  “infantilising” and said it put back women’s sport years. Sky’s original aim had been to create an “inclusive, dedicated platform for women to enjoy and explore content from all sports, while amplifying female voices and perspectives.”

The company did apologise, saying that they “didn’t get it right”. They then added, “we’re learning and remain as committed as ever to creating spaces where fans feel included and inspired.” However, by then, the damage was done, and the social media parodies were out.

Getting Demographics Right

While Sky’s channel was condescending and a huge blunder, getting demographics right is always a tricky issue. Aiming a product at a particular niche is always tough, as you are generally grouping many individuals by a broad common thread.

One sector of entertainment that has worked hard to do this is the iGaming industry. When it comes to slot games, it has done this through providing extensive choice. You will find that many games by developers have similar mechanics or functions and share bonuses. Yet by changing elements, such as graphical themes, music, and difficulty levels, they can appeal to whole new audiences. This has provided everything from kawaii-style fairground themes like Fluffy Favorites slot to mythology-themed outings like Mega Zeus. Each appeals to a different demographic, but provides a similar entertainment experience.

Learning from Demographic Mistakes

The first step in demographics is defining your product or service. This involves understanding what it provides, its special features, and its unique approach. By checking this, you can consider what demographic this would appeal to. After, start to dig into analytics to see who your customers already are. It could include looking at social media statistics or website traffic. You may already have solid market data on this.

The next step is to begin conducting market research amongst this group. Ask what they’re looking for, and test different approaches. It is unlikely this is something Sky tried with the Halo channel, instead making assumptions about what consumers wanted and what would attract them. Once you have this information, you can start to break this demographic down into target personas. This increases personalization even further and can help shape your marketing efforts.

Targeting demographics has some huge advantages. It is almost accepted business practice. Yet making assumptions about what your customer wants, and how it should be presented, can lead to disaster. If you are considering it, invest time and money into quality research and avoid these mistakes.

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