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Home Blog Page 14

Implications of Ethereum Forming A Post-Quantum Security Team

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

The Ethereum Foundation has recently formed a dedicated Post-Quantum (PQ) Security Team often referred to as the Post Quantum team. This announcement came in late January 2026 and marks a significant escalation in Ethereum’s long-term strategy to protect the network against future threats from quantum computing.

The team is led by cryptographic engineer Thomas Coratger, with key members including Emile, a contributor to leanVM, described as a cryptographic cornerstone for Ethereum’s PQ efforts. EF management has officially declared post-quantum security a top strategic priority. This builds on years of research starting as early as 2019, with acceleration since 2024 under the leanEthereum vision.

The effort includes $2 million committed, largely through two $1 million research prizes:Poseidon Prize — to harden the Poseidon hash function (betting on hash-based cryptography for strong, efficient foundations). Proximity Prize — another PQ-focused initiative.

Bi-weekly All Core Devs Post Quantum breakout calls starting soon, led by Antonio Sanso, focusing on user-facing security like precompiles, account abstraction, transaction signature aggregation with leanVM. Multi-client PQ consensus devnets are already live, involving teams like zeamETH, ReamLabs, PierTwo, geanclient, ethlambda_lean, Lighthouse, Grandine, and Prysm.

A PQ workshop in October 2026, plus a PQ day on March 29 in Cannes ahead of EthCC. A 6-part video series on ZKPodcast, materials for enterprises/nation-states, and Ethereum’s representation on Coinbase’s PQ advisory board. Recent use of specialized maths AI for formal proofs in hash-based SNARKs.

A full transition to post-quantum cryptography in the coming years, targeting zero loss of funds and zero downtime. This move addresses growing concerns that quantum computers could eventually break current cryptographic primitives like ECDSA signatures used in Ethereum wallets, though the threat remains non-immediate.

Ethereum is positioning itself proactively, with wallet safety upgrades, test networks, and broader R&D.The announcement was shared publicly by EF researcher Justin Drake on X, and it has been covered widely in crypto media. It’s seen as a forward-thinking step to future-proof the protocol.

The formation of the Ethereum Foundation’s Post-Quantum (PQ) Security Team in late January 2026 signals a major shift from long-term research to active execution in preparing Ethereum for the quantum computing era. This has several layered implications for the protocol, users, developers, the broader crypto ecosystem, and even traditional finance/institutions.

The announcement explicitly notes that “timelines are accelerating” for cryptographically relevant quantum computers those capable of running Shor’s algorithm to break ECDSA signatures and expose private keys from public addresses. While no precise “break date” exists, the EF views the risk as moving from theoretical to something requiring concrete engineering now.

This proactive stance contrasts with more conservative views some experts like Adam Back estimating decades away, positioning Ethereum as taking the threat seriously rather than waiting for clearer signals.

Ethereum aims for a full transition to post-quantum cryptography like hash-based signatures, lattice-based schemes, or hybrids with goals of zero loss of funds and zero downtime. This likely involves: Replacing or augmenting ECDSA with quantum-resistant signatures via account abstraction enhancements, new precompiles, or leanVM-based aggregation.

Upgrading wallet security to support PQ schemes without forcing mass key migrations; a logistical nightmare if not handled carefully. Potential hard forks or soft upgrades, though the roadmap emphasizes smooth, low-disruption paths.

Ethereum could become one of the first major blockchains to achieve broad quantum resistance, but the migration will test coordination among core devs, clients, wallets, and dApps. Poor execution risks temporary fragmentation or user friction.

By prioritizing PQ security alongside leanEthereum vision elements like scalability and efficiency, Ethereum differentiates itself as a “post-quantum safe haven” for high-value assets and data. This could attract institutions, enterprises, and nation-states concerned about long-term digital asset security especially as EF prepares targeted materials and joins advisory boards like Coinbase’s.

In a world where quantum breakthroughs could devalue non-resistant chains like exposing dormant Bitcoin and Ethereum addresses via “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks, Ethereum’s early move enhances its credibility as a durable, future-proof Layer 1.

Its emonstrates the EF’s commitment to long-term robustness, aligning with Vitalik Buterin’s emphasis on Ethereum passing the “walkaway test” (protocol ossification with built-in quantum resistance, scalability, and decentralization). This could bolster confidence in ETH as trustless collateral.

$2M in prizes (Poseidon for hash hardening, Proximity for other PQ advances) and devnet investments signal serious resource allocation, potentially spurring innovation in hash-based SNARKs, formal proofs, and ZK tech. Its may pressure competitors (Bitcoin, Solana, etc.) to accelerate their own PQ efforts, or highlight Ethereum’s edge in institutional-grade security.

PQ schemes often introduce larger signature sizes, higher computational costs, or performance hits—Ethereum’s focus on “lean” foundations (e.g., Poseidon hash, leanVM) aims to mitigate this, but real-world trade-offs remain.

Over-prioritizing PQ could divert resources from nearer-term issues, scaling via PeerDAS/ZK-EVM, though the EF frames it as complementary to the long-term roadmap. Achieving consensus on upgrades in a decentralized ecosystem is hard; rushed changes could lead to contentious forks.

This is a bullish, forward-thinking move that reinforces Ethereum’s cypherpunk roots and commitment to uncompromising security. It positions the network to thrive in a post-quantum world, potentially turning a existential risk into a competitive moat. The full roadmap is expected soon and upcoming events like March PQ day, October workshop will clarify next steps. Stay tuned—Ethereum is going “full PQ.”

Binance is Launching Tesla-linked Perpetual Futures Contracts

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

Binance is launching Tesla-linked perpetual futures, specifically the TSLAUSDT equity perpetual contract on its futures platform.This allows users to trade exposure to Tesla (TSLA) stock price movements 24/7 using USDT as margin, with up to 5x leverage.

Trading begins on January 28, 2026, at 14:30 UTC based on recent Binance announcements and coverage. This is not tokenized stocks in the traditional sense like the 2021 Binance stock tokens that mirrored actual shares and were later discontinued due to regulatory issues.

Instead, it’s a perpetual futures contract tied to Tesla’s equity price—similar to other crypto perps but for a stock underlying. It bridges crypto trading infrastructure with traditional equities, enabling continuous, leveraged trading without stock market hours.

Recent reports and posts highlight excitement around this as a step toward broader TradFi-crypto convergence, with hints that it could signal a return of tokenized stock products on Binance which they paused in 2021 but have been rumored to revive.

This builds on Binance’s history— they originally launched tokenized Tesla shares back in April 2021 (fractional ownership via tokens), but suspended purchases soon after due to regulatory pressure. Now, via derivatives like this perp, they’re offering indirect exposure in a potentially more regulator-friendly way.

Community reactions on X range from viewing it as bullish for cross-market liquidity to concerns it might pull capital from altcoins toward “real” assets like TSLA.

Binance does not currently offer direct tokenized Apple stocks like the AAPL-based tokens from their 2021 program on its main spot platform, as they discontinued that product line due to regulatory pressures shortly after launch.

However, there are several ways to get exposure to Apple (AAPL) through Binance-related or integrated products in 2026: Tokenized Apple stocks via Binance Web3 Wallet / integrations — Binance supports trading of tokenized versions like AAPLX (Apple tokenized stock xStock) and AAPLon via Ondo Finance or similar issuers.

These are available in the Binance Web3 Wallet under the Trade tab, where you can swap USDT for these tokens. They provide 1:1 exposure to Apple’s stock price, often with 24/7 trading, fractional ownership, and no traditional market hours restrictions. Current prices hover around $247–$248 USD per token, with active trading volume in the millions.

These are blockchain-based tokens backed by actual shares held in custody by regulated providers, not direct Binance-issued ones like in 2021.  Following the recent launch of TSLAUSDT equity perpetual futures with up to 5x leverage, starting late January 2026, Binance is actively exploring or signaling a broader revival of stock-linked products.

Reports indicate plans to reintroduce tokenized equities including major names like Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft for 24/7 trading, potentially outside strict U.S. oversight. No official AAPLUSDT perp has launched yet, but community buzz and announcements suggest more equity perps could follow Tesla’s rollout soon.

Binance paused tokenized stocks in 2021 after launching them for companies including Apple, Tesla, and others via partners like CM-Equity. The Binance Square posts confirms they’re considering/planning a comeback amid rising RWA (Real World Asset) tokenization trends. Tokenized U.S. stocks overall have surged, with circulating value hitting ~$915M and growing fast.

This fits the TradFi-crypto convergence wave, especially after the Tesla futures announcement. For visuals on what these tokenized Apple assets look like in trading interfaces or price charts: (These show examples of AAPLX price tracking and Binance Wallet swap interfaces.) This is high-risk territory—tokenized assets and derivatives can involve custody risks, volatility, and potential liquidation. DYOR and trade responsibly.

Polymarket Projects 81% as Chances for a U.S Government Shutdown

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

The odds of another US government shutdown occurring by January 31, 2026, have surged on Polymarket, currently standing at 81% for “Yes” on that outcome.

This represents a sharp increase from lower probabilities just days ago, such as around 9-11% late last week, as reported across multiple sources. The spike aligns with recent political developments, where Senate Democrats, led by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, announced they would withhold votes to advance a government funding package if it includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

This stance follows a fatal shooting in Minneapolis involving federal agents, reportedly from Border Patrol or ICE, which has intensified Democratic calls for changes to DHS provisions, including restrictions on ICE funding.

Government funding is set to expire at the end of this week (January 31), and without bipartisan agreement, a partial shutdown could affect non-essential federal operations, though essential services like Social Security and military pay would continue.

Republicans have pushed back, framing any potential shutdown as a “Schumer shutdown” due to Democratic opposition, while emphasizing the need for uninterrupted funding to support ongoing efficiency reforms like those from the DOGE initiative.

Discussions on platforms like X highlight trader sentiment, with some estimating even higher odds up to 85% based on the impasse over DHS reforms. Similar prediction markets like Kalshi show comparable jumps, reaching 79%.

Market reactions could influence stocks, particularly in sectors tied to government contracts, though historical shutdowns like those in 2018-2019 have often had limited long-term economic impact. Negotiations are ongoing, with senators like Chris Murphy and Tim Kaine seeking amendments, but resolution remains uncertain as the deadline approaches.

Government shutdowns in the United States have occurred periodically since the 1980s, stemming from failures to pass funding legislation, often due to partisan disputes over spending or policy riders.

 

Prior to that era, funding gaps rarely disrupted operations, as agencies continued functioning under the assumption of eventual appropriations. Since 1977, there have been about 20 such events, with an average duration of eight days, though some have lasted weeks or months.

Notable historical shutdowns include: 1995-1996: Two separate closures under President Clinton and a Republican-led Congress, totaling 26 days, triggered by disagreements over budget cuts and Medicare reforms.

Impacts included delayed passport processing, closed national parks, and halted toxic waste cleanups, affecting millions.

2013: A 16-day shutdown during the Obama administration over Affordable Care Act funding, leading to furloughs of 800,000 federal workers and economic losses estimated at $24 billion.

2018-2019: The longest on record at 35 days under President Trump, centered on border wall funding disputes. It reduced U.S. economic output by $11 billion over the following quarters, with ripple effects on contractors and small businesses.

Economic impacts have varied but are generally short-term and disruptive. Shutdowns have caused losses in tourism e.g., closed national parks costing millions daily  aviation delays due to understaffed TSA and FAA operations, and halted government contracts, leading to broader supply chain issues.

This changes in minutes at Polymarket

The 2018-2019 event alone resulted in $3 billion in permanent losses after accounting for back pay and recoveries. Additionally, they delay economic data releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, complicating market predictions and policy decisions.

Federal workers bear significant burdens: During shutdowns, non-essential employees often hundreds of thousands are furloughed without pay, while essential staff e.g., in law enforcement or air traffic control work unpaid until resolution.

Congress typically approves back pay afterward, but the interim financial strain leads to missed bills, depleted savings, and reliance on food banks or loans. Public services face interruptions, including delayed Social Security verifications, suspended FDA inspections, halted IRS audits, and paused research grants.

Vulnerable populations, such as those on food assistance or housing subsidies, experience payment delays, exacerbating hardship. National security can be affected through reduced military training or border operations, though core defenses continue.

Financial markets have historically shown resilience, with limited long-term effects on stock prices or bond yields, as investors view shutdowns as temporary political theater.

However, short-term volatility can occur, particularly in sectors reliant on government spending, like defense or healthcare. While shutdowns impose real costs—estimated in the billions—they rarely lead to structural changes in government size or function.

 

 

 

Bitcoin Struggles Below Key Resistance Point as Bearish Momentum Tightens Grip

By
Ojukwu Emmanuel
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0

Bitcoin remains under pressure as it struggles to reclaim key resistance levels, with bearish momentum continuing to dominate price action. The crypto asset experienced modest volatility around Tuesday’s Wall Street open, briefly climbing to $88,315 before retracing lower.

The price action reflects a cautious market environment as investors position ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision, amid a crowded backdrop of macroeconomic and political risks.

After reaching a year-to-date high near $98,000 earlier in the year, Bitcoin has remained on a downward trajectory, signaling that sellers continue to dominate market structure. With key resistance levels holding firm and momentum skewed to the downside, traders are increasingly focused on where price could head next if selling pressure persists.

Crypto analyst Crypto Patel noted in a recent post on X that Bitcoin has firmly rejected the $94,000–$98,000 neckline resistance zone, reinforcing a bearish technical structure. According to Patel, this rejection confirms that sellers remain in control, as the failure to reclaim this region has prevented any meaningful shift in momentum.

From a technical perspective, Patel highlighted that Bitcoin has completed a failed Head and Shoulders pattern, followed by a bear-flag breakdown. This sequence strengthens the bearish case, with price action continuing to print lower highs while struggling beneath major resistance.

As long as Bitcoin remains capped below the neckline, the broader trend remains decisively bearish. Patel added that a bullish bias would only return if BTC manages a strong reclaim and sustained acceptance above $92,000. Until then, rallies are likely to be viewed as selling opportunities rather than indications of a trend reversal.

Market sentiment has also been shaped by broader macro developments. Gracie Lin, CEO of OKX Singapore, observed that markets have become increasingly headline-sensitive as multiple risks converge. With gold posting fresh highs and investors digesting political and regulatory uncertainty, she noted that Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound and volatile in the near term. According to Lin, price action may be influenced less by the Fed’s decision itself and more by evolving liquidity conditions and overall risk appetite.

Speculative sentiment is also visible on prediction markets. On Polymarket, a contract running through the end of the week has recorded nearly $67 million in trading volume tied to Bitcoin’s price by the end of January. The majority of participants are betting on further downside, with $85,000 emerging as the most favored potential low. In contrast, longer-term sentiment appears more constructive. In a separate Polymarket contract with over $9.3 million in volume, most bettors predict Bitcoin will reach $100,000 before year-end.

Since slipping below $90,000, Bitcoin has struggled to reclaim higher levels, a dynamic that has weighed on the broader crypto market. Ethereum remains capped below $3,000, BNB below $900, Cardano trades around $0.35, and Dogecoin hovers near $0.122. Despite this, select altcoins have shown notable relative strength, sparking renewed discussion around a potential Altseason. However, on-chain data suggests that while altcoins may be approaching a structural turning point, the market is not yet in a clear comfort zone.

Outlook

In the near term, Bitcoin’s trajectory remains tilted to the downside unless buyers can reclaim and hold above the $92,000 level. A sustained move below current support could open the door to a test of the $85,000 region, which is increasingly seen as a key downside target.

Conversely, a decisive break back above resistance would be required to invalidate the prevailing bearish structure. Until clearer signals emerge, Bitcoin is likely to remain volatile, with macro developments, liquidity conditions, and shifting risk sentiment continuing to dictate price action across the broader crypto market.

AI Not the Main Pillar of U.S. Economy in 2025, Macro Report Finds, Tempering Bubble Fears

By
Samuel Nwite
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0

Despite the headlines, hype, and multi-trillion-dollar valuations tied to artificial intelligence, a new economic report suggests that AI was far from the dominant force that drove U.S. growth in 2025.

While AI investment captured investor attention and reshaped corporate priorities, the economy’s real backbone remained household spending, imports-adjusted domestic investment, and traditional drivers of consumption.

Macro Research Board Partners, an economic research platform, published the report in January, authored by strategist Prajakta Bhide. The research directly challenges the popular narrative that the U.S. economy’s growth is narrowly concentrated in AI and thus highly vulnerable to a sector-specific downturn.

“In short, without an AI boom, there would have certainly been less GDP growth last year, but there would also have been fewer imports, so that overall real growth would still have been decent,” Bhide wrote.

Consumers Remain the True Engine of Growth

Personal consumption — spending by households — remained the primary driver of GDP in 2025, even as aggregate income growth slowed and job gains remained modest. “Consumers continue to be the backbone of the economy,” Bhide told Business Insider. “There is a divide between what consumers say they feel and what they say that they’re going to do versus what they actually go and do.”

Despite cautious sentiment, households continued to spend, helping sustain overall economic growth.

This distinction is important because much of the AI-driven investment surge is in imported hardware, including high-performance computing chips, servers, networking equipment, and specialized data-center infrastructure. While these expenditures are significant, they do not directly add to GDP. After adjusting for imports, AI’s contribution to growth is substantially smaller than market perception might suggest.

AI as a Secondary, Not Primary, Driver

The report emphasizes that AI contributed to GDP mostly through software development, cloud-based services, and other domestic investment, while the physical infrastructure side — data centers, imported servers, fiber-optic networks, and GPUs — had a negligible net contribution to GDP.

“Although a negative shock to the optimism around AI implies a risk to GDP growth,” Bhide wrote, “the more realistic (and smaller) estimate of AI’s growth impact after adjusting for imports dispels the popular notion that the U.S. economy would falter without it.”

Historically, recessions are rarely triggered by a pullback in consumer spending before job losses occur. Business Insider has noted that consumer spending tends to weaken after economic downturns take hold, suggesting that fears of an AI-induced collapse might overstate the risk.

Corporate and Market Implications

The report also indirectly touches on stock-market dynamics. The U.S. tech giants driving the AI hype — including Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple — are collectively valued at roughly $22 trillion. Much of the perceived economic risk associated with AI is linked to market volatility in these companies rather than a direct GDP effect. Analysts have noted that even if AI-related enthusiasm were to cool sharply, the broader economy is unlikely to collapse, given the deep, stable reliance on consumer spending and diversified corporate investments.

Bhide’s analysis also highlights the structural difference between AI investment and traditional GDP contributors. While AI spending can be large, it is concentrated among a handful of firms and sectors, creating what she calls “narrowly concentrated” growth. By contrast, personal consumption spans nearly all households, making it far less volatile as an economic stabilizer.

The findings also carry important implications for policymakers and investors. While government and private investment in AI remains strategically important, supporting national competitiveness, technological leadership, and high-value job creation, fears that AI alone underpins U.S. economic growth appear overstated. Infrastructure investment in AI and advanced computing will continue to reshape industry, but the economy’s resilience remains anchored in everyday consumer behavior.

Moreover, understanding the limited GDP contribution of imported hardware helps clarify the economic trade-offs of AI investment. Trillions of dollars may flow into advanced equipment, but the direct domestic contribution is modest until associated services, software, and manufacturing are scaled. The report suggests that a recalibration of expectations around AI’s macroeconomic impact may be warranted, with consumer spending continuing to play a leading role in sustaining U.S. growth.

While AI’s transformative potential in sectors from cloud computing to autonomous systems is undeniable, Bhide’s report makes it clear that the U.S. economy is not precariously balanced on algorithms and data centers. Consumers remained the true engine of growth in 2025, and AI’s GDP impact, though meaningful, was secondary.

The real risk from an AI slowdown lies more in financial markets and investor sentiment than in the underlying economy. The report’s findings suggest that even if the AI hype bubble were to deflate, the broader economy would likely continue to grow, albeit at a more measured pace. Policymakers, investors, and corporate leaders would be wise to distinguish between AI-driven market excitement and the fundamental drivers of economic resilience.

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