Everyone is talking about AI bubbles. But I think AI bubbles are not the real issue. In every major technological era, bubbles happen. They are not anomalies; they are features of progress.
In a seminal paper I wrote in Harvard Business Review, I tracked gross world product (GWP) across two millennia and arrived at a simple conclusion: societies move from invention to innovation eras only when property rights are established at scale. When innovators are confident they can design, own, and profit from their ideas and outcomes, they begin to take real risks.
In the 13th century, some of the wealthiest merchants in society were unwilling to fund chemists and inventors to commercialize their discoveries, not because the ideas lacked promise, but because there were limited mechanisms to protect and appropriate the value of the outcomes. Without enforceable rights, invention remained largely academic.
By the 18th century, however, systems of patents, contracts, and legal protections became standardized. And with that, the game changed. Innovation moved from curiosity to commerce. Capitalist ambition, yes, even greed, entered the system, and a contest began: who would win, and who would go home. Out of that contest, progress was born.
History is clear:
- As Intel rose, Fairchild and Shockley Semiconductor faded.
- As GM, Ford, and Chrysler ascended, dozens of Detroit automakers went bankrupt.
- As Microsoft dominated, WordPerfect, Lotus, and many productivity tools disappeared.
- As the world converged on iPhone, Samsung Galaxy, and Google Pixel, countless phone brands went under.
- In the world of EV champions like Tesla or BYD, more than 200 EV startups have gone bankrupt.
- In Nigeria, finance house and banking licenses were once issued like candy in 1990s, and most failed. Yet from that same cohort emerged four of today’s five leading financial institutions.
That is creative destruction at work. And that is exactly what will happen in AI. So, do not obsess over the bubble. The bigger bubble is not participating at all. If you sit out, your future is already priced at zero. If you try, you at least give yourself a chance to be among the winners. Yes, there will be an AI bubble. And yes, many will fall. But post-bubble, a new order will emerge with stronger firms, new business models, and fresh economic possibilities.
Relax and ask: what is not a bubble today? Even in America, college graduates struggle to secure decent entry-level jobs. In Nigeria, the university bubble has been around for more than a decade. Yet people do not stop going to school. Why? Because even after bubbles burst, society still advances. From the miry clay, new futures rise.
Indeed, the real question is not whether a bubble exists, but whether you will be on the positive side of what comes after, since there is abundance in bubble, and we must not blindly fear it because it is part of the game!
Forget AI Bubble, this is The Real Bubble We Ignore

As a student trying to understand the architecture of American business, I attended many of McKinsey’s advanced technical degree career sessions, starting at my first year in Johns Hopkins University. I was not looking for a job as I was very early in my studies. But those sessions became a kind of free MBA, learning from some of the sharpest minds in consulting and business.
One format I particularly enjoyed was the group case study. Students were clustered into teams and given a business problem to solve. Almost always, someone with physics or engineering background would begin by declaring a “trillion-dollar market opportunity.” And almost always, the McKinsey partners would shut that down: “The U.S. economy is not organized in trillions of dollars. It is organized in billions.”
Back then, they were right. It was a mistake to describe sectors like education, healthcare, or retail in trillions. Those markets lived in the billions. But fast forward two decades; today, a single company is worth nearly $4.5 trillion.
What changed? We moved from linear growth to exponential growth. When Elon Musk signs compensation packages tied to $8.5 trillion in Tesla valuation, he is not assuming the U.S. economy will remain at $30 trillion. Implicitly, he is betting that the economic base itself will expand, perhaps toward $100 trillion, powered by AI, robotics, and new productivity engines.
Good People, look at Bitcoin. It started at less than a cent. Today, it trades around $87,000. Call it a bubble if you like, but if you entered at $1, are you not better off?
The challenge with AI is that participation itself is becoming gated. When governments begin to underwrite massive investments, as suggested by recent OpenAI-related leaks and U.S. support mechanisms, only a few players can truly compete. China is doing the same, backing its champions. For everyone else, the barriers rise.
If these bets pay off, in a decade we may be talking about double-digit trillions of dollars in company valuations. But the distribution of opportunity will be uneven, and many communities could be left behind.
Let’s go back to history: In the 1970s, General Motors employed about one million people to generate roughly $65 billion in annual revenue. GM now uses 162,000 people to generate about $200 billion. Today, Alphabet, Google’s parent company, employs about 200,000 people to generate close to $400 billion. Did you notice the productivity vector?
Period. No one is really talking about the bubble of opportunity, on who gets access to these exponential engines, and who does not. And to me, that is the real bubble, and not what happens to AI companies!






