Oil prices surrendered much of their early gains on Tuesday after Qatar said diplomatic efforts to end the five-month U.S.-Iran war were continuing, easing immediate fears of a prolonged disruption to global crude supplies even as attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz kept energy markets on edge.

The mixed trading across oil, gold and U.S. Treasuries is seen as the latest indication that investors remain caught between two powerful forces: persistent geopolitical risks that threaten global energy supplies and expectations that higher oil prices could keep inflation elevated, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer.

Brent crude rose 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $83.94 a barrel after earlier climbing as high as $86.33. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 30 cents, or 0.37%, to $80.04 a barrel after reaching an intraday high of $82.33.

Both benchmarks had surged more than 2% earlier in the session as uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations initially boosted risk premiums across energy markets.

Qatar Revives Diplomatic Hopes

The reversal followed comments from Qatar indicating that negotiations aimed at ending the conflict remain active. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed Al Ansari said mediators including Qatar, Pakistan and Oman continue to coordinate closely with both Washington and Tehran, facilitating exchanges of draft proposals designed to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough.

The comments provided investors with renewed optimism that an agreement could eventually reduce geopolitical risks surrounding one of the world’s most strategically important oil-producing regions.

“Oil prices are pairing earlier gains on comments from Qatari officials saying a potential U.S.-Iran resolution has been drafted,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

However, he cautioned that the oil market remains fundamentally tight.

“While production in the Middle East has recovered from the lows, it remains below pre-conflict levels, keeping the oil market undersupplied,” he said.

The remarks suggest that even if diplomacy advances, physical supply constraints continue to support crude prices.

Despite diplomatic efforts, shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continue to inject significant uncertainty into global energy markets. The waterway carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil consumption, making any disruption a major concern for refiners, commodity traders and governments.

Recent attacks on commercial shipping have heightened fears that transportation bottlenecks could tighten supplies even if oil production gradually recovers. The continuing instability has also contributed to increased volatility across commodity and financial markets as investors attempt to assess whether geopolitical tensions will escalate further or begin to ease.

Treasury Yields Climb As Fed Outlook Hardens

The uncertain geopolitical backdrop also pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher as investors reassessed inflation and monetary policy expectations.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose two basis points to 4.708%, while the 30-year Treasury yield increased two basis points to 5.254%, remaining close to its highest level since 2007.

The two-year Treasury yield, which is particularly sensitive to Federal Reserve policy expectations, edged up to 4.264%.

Bond markets continue to reflect expectations that elevated energy prices could feed into broader inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to ease monetary policy.

The recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting reinforced those concerns after policymakers delivered what many investors described as a “hawkish hold,” keeping interest rates unchanged while maintaining a cautious stance toward inflation.

Adding to that message, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said inflation remains on a gradual path lower but warned that policymakers would not hesitate to raise interest rates again if price pressures fail to moderate.

Interest-rate futures now imply roughly a 63% probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September.

Gold Trapped Between Safe-Haven Demand And Higher Yields

Gold prices remained largely range-bound as competing forces offset one another. Spot gold traded little changed at $4,053.40 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures gained 0.6% to $4,114.30.

Investors continue to balance gold’s traditional role as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises against the negative impact of higher interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

“Gold prices have been stuck in a narrow range over the past few weeks, trading roughly between $4,000 and $4,100, as investors remain uncertain about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path,” said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades.

“The past 24 hours have done little to change that picture.”

The persistence of the trading range suggests investors remain reluctant to take large positions until there is greater clarity on both U.S. monetary policy and Middle East diplomacy.

But higher oil prices continue to complicate the inflation outlook. Energy costs are a major input across transportation, manufacturing, and consumer goods, meaning sustained increases in crude prices could spill over into broader price pressures.

That dynamic has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to keep policy restrictive for longer or even tighten further if inflation accelerates. This week could prove pivotal for those expectations as investors digest several key U.S. labor market reports, including JOLTS job openings, the ADP private employment survey and Friday’s closely watched nonfarm payrolls report.

Strong employment data would reinforce expectations that the U.S. economy remains resilient enough to withstand higher interest rates, potentially strengthening the case for additional monetary tightening.

While gold remained largely unchanged, other precious metals outperformed.

Spot silver rose 1.1% to $58.83 per ounce, platinum advanced 2.2% to $1,663.13, and palladium gained 1.9% to $1,288.32.

The broader strength suggests continued expectations that industrial demand for precious metals will remain resilient despite tighter financial conditions.

HSBC Holdings reported stronger-than-expected first-half earnings and upgraded its full-year net interest income outlook, as its pivot toward Asia’s wealth management and cross-border banking markets continues to generate robust returns.

Europe’s largest lender posted pre-tax profit of $19.5 billion for the first six months of the year, a 23% increase from $15.8 billion a year earlier and comfortably ahead of analysts’ consensus estimate of $18.9 billion.

The performance caps another strong reporting season for Europe’s banking sector, where lenders have continued to benefit from resilient lending margins, buoyant trading revenues and growing fee-based businesses, helping offset the gradual easing of monetary policy across several major economies.

The results boost HSBC’s long-term strategy of concentrating resources in Asia, particularly Hong Kong and mainland China, where rising household wealth, expanding cross-border financial activity and growing demand for international banking services have strengthened recurring revenue streams.

The bank raised its guidance for 2026 net interest income, saying it now expects to generate more than $46 billion, compared with its previous target of approximately that level.

The improved outlook reflects stronger-than-anticipated lending activity, resilient deposit franchises and continued growth in wealth management, an important earnings driver as Asian households accumulate financial assets.

Chief Executive Georges Elhedery said Hong Kong remains central to HSBC’s long-term expansion strategy.

“Hong Kong remains front and center in the growth of our wealth business in Asia,” Elhedery said during the earnings briefing.

That strategy continued to deliver results, with HSBC and its subsidiary Hang Seng Bank adding approximately 640,000 new customers in Hong Kong during the first half of the year.

Cross-Border Banking Offsets Regulatory Uncertainty

The results also demonstrate HSBC’s ability to navigate regulatory changes in China while maintaining growth. Despite Beijing’s crackdown launched in late May to curb illicit cross-border wealth transfers, HSBC said customer acquisition and account-opening activity have remained largely unaffected.

The resilience suggests that demand for legitimate international wealth management and investment services remains robust despite tighter regulatory scrutiny.

Cross-border banking has become an increasingly important competitive advantage for HSBC, whose extensive international network allows affluent individuals and multinational companies to manage assets and transactions across multiple jurisdictions. Its corporate and institutional banking division benefited significantly from that trend, emerging as the bank’s largest earnings contributor by accounting for roughly one-third of first-half profit.

Growing trade flows, supply-chain diversification and increased capital movement across Asia have boosted demand for treasury services, trade finance, foreign exchange and international cash management, all areas where HSBC maintains a strong market position.

Beyond interest income, the results highlight the growing importance of fee-based businesses in supporting bank profitability. Revenue from wealth management and investment products continued to expand as customers increased allocations to investment products, insurance and private banking services.

Banking institutions are now seeking to reduce reliance on traditional lending income by expanding recurring fee-generating businesses that are less sensitive to interest rate cycles. The same trend was evident at Standard Chartered, which also reported better-than-expected first-half earnings last week on the back of strong fee income growth.

Shareholder Returns Continue

HSBC also announced the resumption of its share repurchase programme after temporarily suspending buybacks while completing the acquisition of the remaining shares in Hang Seng Bank.

The lender unveiled a share buyback programme of up to $1 billion and declared a second interim dividend of $0.10 per share, matching the interim dividend paid in May.

However, the size of the buyback fell short of some investors’ expectations.

Analysts at Citi noted that the programme was below the market consensus estimate of $2.2 billion, raising questions about whether HSBC intends to adopt a more conservative approach to future capital returns.

Investors will likely monitor upcoming quarters for signs of whether the latest programme represents a temporary restart following the Hang Seng transaction or signals a structural reduction in quarterly buybacks.

HSBC’s Hong Kong-listed shares traded little changed following the earnings announcement after earlier reaching a record high of HK$169.50.

IPO Pipeline Remains Healthy

Although HSBC has significantly reduced its presence in the U.S. investment banking market following years of strategic retrenchment, the lender continues to benefit from active capital markets across Asia.

Elhedery said the bank currently has more than 70 initial public offerings in its regional pipeline, including 40 listings in Hong Kong, underscoring expectations that Asia’s equity capital markets will remain active despite persistent geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.

A stronger IPO market is expected to provide another source of fee income for HSBC’s investment banking franchise, complementing growth in wealth management and transaction banking.

Looking ahead, HSBC’s upgraded guidance suggests management remains confident that the bank can sustain earnings momentum even as central banks gradually normalize monetary policy.

While lower policy rates generally compress banks’ lending margins over time, HSBC’s diversified earnings mix, particularly its expanding wealth management operations and cross-border corporate banking franchise, provides an important cushion against future declines in net interest margins.

The bank’s strong capital position also leaves room for continued shareholder distributions while supporting investment in strategic growth areas across Asia.

HSBC has undergone a multi-year transformation aimed at concentrating capital on faster-growing Asian markets while scaling back operations in lower-return businesses across Europe and North America. The strategy has centered on wealth management, private banking, commercial banking and cross-border financial services, particularly in Hong Kong, mainland China and Southeast Asia.

The shift comes as Asia continues to generate a growing share of global wealth creation, while multinational corporations increasingly require banking partners capable of facilitating trade, investment and treasury operations across multiple jurisdictions.