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RBI Weighs Forex Hedge Subsidy as India Battles Rupee Pressure and Dollar Outflows

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India’s banking sector has proposed a new foreign exchange hedging framework to the Reserve Bank of India that could pave the way for tens of billions of dollars in overseas borrowing, as policymakers intensify efforts to stabilize the rupee and attract fresh dollar inflows into the economy.

According to sources familiar with the discussions cited by Reuters, treasury heads from major Indian banks met with the central bank last week ahead of the RBI’s June 5 monetary policy meeting, where they discussed mechanisms to lower the cost of raising foreign currency debt.

The proposal centers on subsidized forex hedging costs. Under the suggested structure, companies would raise dollar-denominated borrowings through banks, while lenders themselves would gain access to lower-cost currency swaps from the RBI. That would effectively reduce the cost of protecting borrowers against exchange-rate volatility.

“As per the latest discussions, ?the RBI is comfortable at bearing 150 basis points of the hedging cost, which should make ?the dollar borrowing cheaper than local fundraise, but some banks have requested for higher discounts,” one of the sources said.

Bankers believe the move could make overseas borrowing cheaper than raising funds domestically. Some lenders, however, are pushing for even larger concessions to further boost demand. They estimate such a scheme could help attract as much as $50 billion in foreign currency inflows, a potentially significant buffer at a time when India’s external accounts are facing mounting pressure from rising oil prices, capital outflows, and a weakening rupee.

The discussions highlight growing concern within Indian policymaking circles over the country’s balance of payments outlook. Economists have warned that elevated crude prices and sustained foreign investor withdrawals from Indian equities could push India into a sizable external deficit during the current financial year.

The rupee has emerged as one of Asia’s weakest-performing currencies in 2026, sliding as much as 4.7% against the dollar since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, which has driven global energy prices sharply higher. India, one of the world’s largest oil importers, remains highly vulnerable to spikes in crude prices because of their impact on inflation, trade balances, and dollar demand.

The pressure has complicated the RBI’s policy balancing act. While the central bank is attempting to preserve currency stability and maintain investor confidence, it is also trying to avoid excessively tightening domestic liquidity conditions at a time when economic growth remains uneven.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra signaled the urgency of the situation in an interview with Mint newspaper this week, saying India needs to strengthen both its current account and capital account positions.

The latest discussions also revive memories of a similar strategy deployed during India’s 2013 currency crisis, when the RBI introduced concessional swap windows for foreign currency non-resident deposits. That program successfully attracted roughly $26 billion from non-resident Indians and helped stabilize the rupee after the so-called “taper tantrum” triggered capital flight from emerging markets.

Reuters reported earlier this month that the RBI has again been studying ways to mobilize dollar inflows, including another potential NRI deposit initiative. Analysts say policymakers are now attempting to create multiple channels for foreign currency funding rather than relying solely on reserve sales to defend the rupee.

India’s foreign exchange reserves remain relatively strong by historical standards, but persistent intervention to smooth rupee volatility can rapidly deplete reserves during periods of prolonged external stress. Encouraging external commercial borrowings through subsidized hedging may therefore offer a less disruptive alternative.

The proposal also reflects how sharply global monetary conditions have shifted. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates elevated for longer have strengthened the dollar and intensified funding pressures across emerging markets.

For Indian corporates, overseas borrowing has often been unattractive because of expensive hedging costs, which can erase the interest-rate advantage of dollar loans. A central bank-backed swap mechanism could materially alter that equation, particularly for infrastructure firms, manufacturers, and large conglomerates seeking long-term financing.

Still, the proposal carries risks as subsidizing hedging costs could expose the RBI to currency-market losses if volatility intensifies further. It may also encourage excessive external borrowing if companies underestimate future exchange-rate risks.

There are also unanswered questions over eligibility. Reuters could not determine whether any eventual subsidy scheme would apply broadly across borrowers or be targeted toward specific sectors considered strategically important for economic growth.

India’s trade minister, Piyush Goyal, said last week that the government was closely monitoring rupee weakness and considering multiple measures to counter depreciation pressures.

The broader concern for policymakers is that geopolitical instability, particularly in the Middle East, is colliding with tighter global financial conditions at a vulnerable moment for emerging markets. This means maintaining stable capital inflows has become increasingly important for India, not only for defending the currency but also for preserving macroeconomic confidence and funding long-term growth ambitions.

Robert Kiyosaki Warns: Iran’s Yuan Oil Move Will Crash The US Dollar

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Renowned investor and author Robert has Kiyosaki issued a stark warning on Iran’s decision to accept Chinese Yuan for oil payments, including conditioning passage through the critical Strait of Hormuz.

According to Kiyosaki via a post on X, the move away from the “petrodollar” system, where global oil transactions are largely conducted in U.S. dollars, could weaken global demand for the American currency over time. He further stressed that the development could have long-term implications for inflation, global trade, and the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar.

He wrote,

“WORSE THAN WAR in IRAN Death of the US Dollar? Iran began accepting payment for oil in Chinese Yuan. What does that mean to you and your future and the future of the US dollar? I strongly encourage you to invest about and hour in your financial education. I strongly suggest you tune into Ray Dalio’s podcast “Iran just killed the petro dollar.”

“This is the biggest news in world financial history and no one is explaing it save for Ray Dalio. Ray keeps it simple and offers concrete actions almost anyone can take to not become a victim of this massive change and crisis in money. Please do not hesitate to tune into the wisdom Ray Dalio offers, wisdom very few will tune into. Remember your best investment is your investment into your financial education….education our schools will never cover.”

As a strong advocate for assets such as gold, silver, real estate, and digital assets like Bitcoin, which he frequently describes as hedges against inflation and currency devaluation, Kiyosaki post suggests that people should protect themselves by investing in these assets to avoid falling victim to dollar crash.

While the U.S. dollar remains the world’s leading reserve currency, he believes the growing trend of countries reducing reliance on the dollar could reshape the future of global finance in the years ahead.

What Iran Is Doing

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most vital energy chokepoints, through which roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas passes. Amid escalating tensions in 2026, Iran has reportedly begun allowing limited tanker passage only if oil transactions are settled in Chinese Yuan rather than US dollars.

This builds on years of bilateral trade. Iran has sold most of its oil to China in Yuan since at least 2012 due to Western sanctions. The new escalation ties transit fees and oil cargo payments directly to the Yuan, effectively creating a “toll booth” that favors non-dollar trade.

China, which buys over 80% of Iran’s oil exports, stands to gain significantly as this strengthens the Yuan’s role in global energy markets and bypasses the US-dominated financial system.

The Petrodollar System Under Threat

Since the 1970s, the petrodollar system has been a cornerstone of US economic power. Major oil producers price and settle oil in US dollars, creating constant global demand for the currency. Oil-exporting nations recycle these “petrodollars” into US Treasuries and other dollar assets, helping finance US deficits and keeping borrowing costs low.

Iran’s move, combined with broader de-dollarization trends (such as BRICS nations exploring alternatives), challenges this architecture. While the US dollar still accounts for around 57-58% of global reserves, its share has been declining gradually. Analysts note that shifts like this could accelerate if more countries follow suit.

Kiyosaki argues this financial shift could have a more long-term impact than military conflict, potentially leading to higher inflation, a weaker dollar, rising import costs, and pressure on US debt markets.

However, many observers note that the dollar’s dominance won’t disappear overnight. The US financial markets remain the deepest and most liquid in the world, and full convertibility issues limit the Yuan’s global reach.

Outlook

Robert Kiyosaki recent warning echoes that philosophy in his book Rich Dad Poor Dad, which says in times of massive change, those who are financially literate will thrive while others suffer.

The situation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remains fluid. Whether this marks the beginning of the end for petrodollar dominance or another chapter in a slow transition is still unfolding.

Anthropic Co-Founder Chris Olah Urges AI Regulation From Outside The Tech Industry

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A senior executive at Anthropic warned on Monday that artificial intelligence development is moving too quickly and carries risks too profound to be left solely in the hands of technology companies, calling for stronger oversight from governments, religious institutions, and civil society groups.

Speaking at the Vatican during the presentation of Pope Leo XIV’s first encyclical on artificial intelligence, Anthropic co-founder Chris Olah said the world faces a “real possibility” that AI systems could displace human labor on a massive scale, creating economic and moral pressures unlike previous technological transitions.

“If that happens, supporting those displaced will be a moral imperative of historic proportions,” Olah said during the event, which brought together religious leaders, academics, and technology figures at the Vatican.

The remarks reflected growing unease inside parts of the AI industry itself, where even executives building advanced systems are increasingly warning about the societal consequences of the technology’s rapid acceleration.

Olah acknowledged that companies developing frontier AI models operate under intense commercial and geopolitical pressure, conditions he said can conflict with broader public interests.

“Every frontier AI lab operates inside a set of incentives and constraints that can sometimes conflict with doing the right thing,” he said, arguing that external scrutiny is necessary precisely because market incentives alone cannot reliably govern systems with potentially transformative social consequences.

The appearance marked a striking moment in the widening debate over AI governance, bringing together one of Silicon Valley’s leading AI safety advocates and the Catholic Church, which has increasingly positioned itself as a moral counterweight to the speed-driven culture of the technology sector.

The Vatican has emerged as an unusually active voice in ethical debates surrounding AI, automation, and human dignity, particularly around concerns that advanced systems could deepen inequality, weaken social cohesion, and concentrate power in a small number of corporations and governments.

Anthropic’s presence at the event also highlighted the company’s evolving role within the global AI policy debate. Founded in 2021 by former employees of OpenAI, including Olah, the company was created partly out of concerns that AI systems were being commercialized faster than adequate safeguards could be developed.

Anthropic has since tried to distinguish itself as a safety-focused AI developer, frequently advocating tighter controls and testing standards for powerful models. The company has also resisted pressure from parts of President Donald Trump’s administration to loosen restrictions around military applications of AI, particularly in areas such as autonomous targeting and domestic surveillance.

Olah said the ethical implications of AI now extend far beyond software engineering and should be treated as a broader societal issue involving philosophy, labor, economics, and human rights.

“I think this is a scary moment. Things are moving fast. It’s a really powerful technology,” he told Reuters after the event.

“There’s a risk that things could go badly, and it’s incumbent on all of us to push this in a good direction.”

His warning comes as governments around the world struggle to build coherent regulatory frameworks for increasingly capable AI systems, while companies race to deploy models that can code, reason, generate media, and automate complex workflows at unprecedented scale.

The debate has intensified in recent months following the release of more advanced AI systems from firms including Anthropic, OpenAI, and others, prompting concerns over cyber risks, labor disruption, and concentration of technological power.

Olah identified three areas he believes require urgent global attention: large-scale labor displacement, unequal access to AI benefits between wealthy and developing nations, and the growing opacity of advanced AI systems whose internal decision-making processes are becoming harder even for developers to interpret.

“AI development is concentrated in a handful of wealthy nations,” he told the Vatican audience. “How can we ensure the gains of AI are shared globally?”

That concern increasingly resonates beyond religious institutions. Policymakers in Europe, parts of Asia, and even sections of the US political establishment are debating whether frontier AI models should face stricter oversight before public deployment.

The Vatican event also indicates that the AI debate is shifting. What was once largely a technical discussion among engineers and venture capitalists is becoming a wider societal argument involving ethics, labor rights, geopolitics, and institutional trust.

Olah’s role as the only major Big Tech representative invited to the gathering underpins his longstanding focus on AI safety research and his outreach to religious communities. He said he had engaged with more than 15 faith traditions on the moral and philosophical implications of advanced AI systems.

Huawei Sets Ambitious 1.4-Nanometer Chip Target by 2031 as China Pushes for Semiconductor Self-Sufficiency Amid U.S. Sanctions

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SUNY College of Nanoscale Science and Engineering's Michael Liehr, left, and IBM's Bala Haranand look at wafer comprised of 7nm chips on Thursday, July 2, 2015, in a NFX clean room Albany. Several 7nm chips at SUNY Poly CNSE on Thursday in Albany. (Darryl Bautista/Feature Photo Service for IBM)

Huawei Technologies declared on Monday that it will achieve industry-leading semiconductor performance within five years, unveiling a new technological principle aimed at overcoming persistent U.S. export restrictions that have severely limited China’s access to cutting-edge chipmaking tools.

Reuters reports that at a semiconductor symposium in Shanghai, Huawei said its high-end chips will reach transistor density equivalent to 1.4-nanometer processes by 2031. While the company did not provide independent performance benchmarks, the target is highly significant.

According to the report, China’s most advanced proven manufacturing capability currently sits around the 7-nanometer node, while 1.4 nm is expected to represent the global frontier toward the end of the decade.

Taiwan’s TSMC, the world’s leading contract chipmaker, is currently in production with 2-nanometer technology and plans to begin mass production of 1.4-nanometer chips in 2028. Huawei’s announcement underscores Beijing’s aggressive drive to close the gap through innovation rather than reliance on restricted Western technology.

The Tau Scaling Law: Moving Beyond Moore’s Law

Huawei introduced a new guiding principle called the Tau Scaling Law, shifting the industry’s traditional focus away from simply shrinking transistors — the foundation of Moore’s Law, which has driven semiconductor progress for decades. As transistors approach atomic scales, further miniaturization is becoming physically and economically challenging.

Instead, Tau Scaling emphasizes reducing the time it takes for signals and data to travel through chips and computing systems, effectively improving overall performance by minimizing latency and interconnect delays.

“The industry can no longer rely on shrinking transistors for computing breakthroughs,” Huawei’s presentation implied, positioning Tau Scaling as a necessary evolution for the post-Moore era.

This approach aligns with broader global efforts in advanced packaging, chiplets, and system-level optimization, but holds particular urgency for China. U.S. export controls since 2019 have restricted access to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines and other critical tools, forcing Chinese firms to explore alternative pathways to performance gains.

He Hui, director of semiconductor research at Omdia, assessed the strategy positively. He noted: “What Huawei is proposing is a shift from traditional node-driven scaling to system-level efficiency scaling. Rather than depending solely on smaller transistors, the company is focusing on shortening interconnect, lowering latency and improving data movement inside the chip, which is a credible way to extract more performance when leading-edge lithography is constrained.”

AI Boom Amplifies The Stakes

The urgency behind Huawei’s push is heightened by the explosive growth of artificial intelligence. Huawei’s Ascend series of AI chips powers several leading Chinese models, including DeepSeek’s flagship V4, released last month. The company announced that its upcoming Kirin smartphone chips, scheduled for launch later this year, will be the first to incorporate a Tau Scaling architecture called LogicFolding, which shortens internal wiring and significantly boosts performance.

LogicFolding will also be extended to Ascend AI chips by 2030 and applied to large-scale AI computing clusters. Huawei claimed it has already designed and mass-produced 381 chips over the past six years based on Tau Scaling principles for use in smartphones, AI computing, and other applications.

This progress is critical as domestic Chinese tech firms seek alternatives to Nvidia’s most advanced AI processors, which remain heavily restricted from sale in China. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently conceded that the company has “largely conceded” the Chinese AI chip market to Huawei and local players.

Despite the ambitious targets, analysts caution that significant hurdles remain. Brady Wang, associate director at Counterpoint Research, noted: “Cost, power, heat, and system integration remain major challenges, especially for Cloud AI servers. In the short term, China may narrow the gap with global leaders, but a technology gap with the most advanced nodes will still remain.”

Huawei’s chip division head, He Tingbo, acknowledged the difficulties, including the need for new design tools tailored to Tau Scaling and managing thermal issues across applications from mobile devices to massive data centers. However, he expressed confidence.

“Given all the various constraints, we have found some pretty good solutions… I can confidently say in the coming 10 years our solutions for mobile computing and AI computing will be competitive,” he said.

The Ban that Inspired the Push

Huawei was placed on the U.S. Entity List in 2019, cutting it off from many American technologies and forcing it into what the company described as “extreme survival mode.” A secret backup chip project became central to its resilience, culminating in the surprise 2023 launch of the 5G-capable Mate 60 series powered by a domestically produced 7-nanometer chip from SMIC.SMIC shares rose 7.6% on Monday following Huawei’s announcement.

The foundry has also invested in advanced packaging research, signaling a broader ecosystem effort to push beyond conventional limits.

For China, achieving semiconductor self-sufficiency is a national priority with profound geopolitical implications. Success would reduce vulnerability to future sanctions, strengthen its position in the global AI race, and enhance technological sovereignty. Failure, or even prolonged gaps, could constrain its AI ambitions and economic competitiveness.

Analysts believe Huawei’s Tau Scaling initiative represents a creative and necessary adaptation to external constraints. While it may not fully close the gap with TSMC or Intel in the immediate future, it demonstrates China’s determination to innovate around restrictions and invest heavily in alternative pathways.

AI Boom Rewires India’s Data Center Race as Schneider Electric Bets on Explosive Growth

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Schneider Electric expects its India data center business to grow significantly faster than its broader operations in the country over the next four to five years, as artificial intelligence adoption triggers a fresh wave of investment in digital infrastructure.

The company said demand for AI-ready data centers, cloud computing capacity, and grid modernization is accelerating across India, turning the country into one of the most important emerging battlegrounds in the global infrastructure race.

Sumati Sahgal, vice-president for Secure Power and Data Centers, Greater India Zone at Schneider Electric, told Reuters that data centers currently contribute about 15% to 20% of the company’s India business, but the segment is expanding at a double-digit pace and is expected to account for a much larger share over time.

“This business will contribute to a much faster pace of growth than what the rest of the core business sees,” Sahgal said, adding that data centers and electricity grid upgrades would remain among the company’s strongest growth drivers.

This means that the AI investment boom, initially concentrated in the United States and China, is now rapidly reshaping India’s industrial and technology landscape. As companies rush to deploy generative AI systems, demand is surging for high-density computing facilities capable of handling enormous workloads, particularly those tied to training and running large language models.

Unlike traditional data centers, AI-focused facilities consume far more electricity and require sophisticated cooling systems, backup power infrastructure, and energy management software. That shift is creating a lucrative opportunity for suppliers such as Schneider Electric, which provides uninterruptible power supply systems, switchgear, cooling technologies, power distribution units, and monitoring software.

India has emerged as a particularly attractive market because of its large digital population, expanding cloud adoption, and government pushes to strengthen domestic manufacturing and digital infrastructure. Industry estimates cited by Schneider Electric suggest India’s data center market could reach $31.36 billion by 2035, growing at a compound annual rate of more than 13%.

Sahgal said India’s installed data center capacity could rise to between 6 gigawatts and 7 gigawatts by 2030, up sharply from around 1.5 gigawatts currently. That scale-up would require billions of dollars in fresh investment in power systems, cooling equipment, and transmission infrastructure.

The expansion is also spreading geographically. While Mumbai and Chennai remain dominant hubs because of submarine cable connectivity and financial infrastructure, companies are increasingly looking toward states such as Gujarat and Rajasthan to build new facilities closer to users and industrial clusters.

That decentralization trend reflects mounting concerns about land availability, power reliability, and latency requirements for AI applications. It also aligns with India’s broader push to develop regional digital ecosystems rather than concentrate infrastructure in a few urban centers.

Schneider Electric’s optimism comes amid a broader global scramble for AI infrastructure. Technology giants, including Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta, are collectively spending hundreds of billions of dollars to build AI computing capacity, while equipment makers and power infrastructure firms are benefiting from the surge in demand.

India is increasingly positioning itself as both a consumer market and a manufacturing base within that ecosystem. Sahgal said the country is becoming an important production hub for power and cooling equipment used in data centers, with local manufacturing helping operators manage costs and supply chain risks.

The shift is also tied to growing energy concerns. AI data centers require enormous amounts of electricity, placing additional strain on power grids already under pressure in many countries. That has elevated the importance of grid modernization and energy efficiency technologies, areas where Schneider Electric has been aggressively expanding.

Investors globally have poured into companies linked to AI infrastructure over the past two years, betting that the demand cycle could last for a decade or more. Semiconductor firms, power equipment makers, utilities, and cooling technology providers have all emerged as major beneficiaries.

For Schneider Electric, India now represents one of the clearest examples of how the AI boom is moving beyond software and chips into the physical infrastructure economy. The company’s strategy is seen as an indication of a broader industry view that the next phase of AI competition will not just be about algorithms, but about who can build enough energy-efficient computing infrastructure to support them.