Robinhood has recently launched a prediction markets hub in partnership with Kalshi, a regulated exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This new feature allows Robinhood users to trade contracts based on the outcomes of various real-world events, such as sports, politics, and economic indicators. The hub debuted with offerings like contracts on the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate for May and the men’s and women’s NCAA basketball tournaments, aligning with the timing of March Madness.

This move expands Robinhood’s offerings beyond traditional stocks and crypto, tapping into the growing popularity of prediction markets in the U.S. The collaboration with Kalshi, which won a legal battle in 2024 to offer election-related contracts, ensures regulatory compliance while bringing event-driven trading to Robinhood’s roughly 25 million users. Kalshi’s legal battle centers on its fight with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over the right to offer event contracts tied to political outcomes, specifically congressional control contracts that let users bet on which party will control the U.S. House or Senate after an election.

In June 2023, Kalshi, a New York-based prediction market registered as a designated contract market (DCM) under the CFTC, sought approval to list these contracts. The CFTC rejected them in September 2023, arguing that they constituted “gaming” or gambling—activities it believed were unlawful under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and against the public interest. The agency worried that such contracts could undermine election integrity, incentivize manipulation, or blur the line between financial markets and betting.

Kalshi fired back, suing the CFTC in November 2023 in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. It claimed the CFTC overstepped its authority, calling the decision “arbitrary, capricious, and contrary to law” under the Administrative Procedure Act. Kalshi argued that its contracts weren’t gambling but financial instruments tied to economically significant events—elections—that people could use to hedge risks or gain insight into future outcomes. They pointed to examples like businesses hedging against policy shifts or researchers using market data to forecast trends more accurately than polls.

On September 12, 2024, District Court Judge Jia Cobb ruled in Kalshi’s favor, granting summary judgment and vacating the CFTC’s ban. Cobb found that the CFTC misinterpreted “gaming” in the CEA, noting that elections aren’t games or illegal activities but civic processes with major economic impacts. She rejected the CFTC’s public interest concerns as speculative, saying the agency failed to prove concrete harm. The CFTC didn’t back down, appealing to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals and seeking an emergency stay to block Kalshi from offering the contracts during the appeal. Initially, the appeals court issued a temporary administrative stay, but on October 2, 2024, it denied the CFTC’s request for a longer stay.

Judge Patricia Millett wrote that the CFTC hadn’t shown it, or the public would suffer “irreparable injury” without the stay, though she called the underlying merits “close and difficult.” This greenlit Kalshi to launch its election contracts ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and it quickly did so, listing contracts on everything from congressional control to presidential outcomes. The CFTC’s appeal is still pending as of early 2025, with oral arguments heard by the D.C. Circuit on January 17, 2025. Meanwhile, Kalshi has expanded its offerings, and by late 2024, it reportedly saw over $1 billion in election-related trades.

The CFTC continues to argue that these contracts threaten election integrity, while Kalshi counters that they’ve proven valuable—offering clearer signals than polls during the 2024 race, with no evidence of manipulation. This battle’s outcome could reshape prediction markets. A win for Kalshi might open the floodgates for other platforms to offer similar contracts, challenging the CFTC’s regulatory scope. A CFTC victory could tighten restrictions, pushing such markets offshore to unregulated spaces like Polymarket. Beyond federal rules, state regulators could still ban these contracts locally, adding another layer of complexity. For now, Kalshi’s operating, but the fight’s far from over.

An explosion has ruptured a section of the Trans-Niger Pipeline (TNP) in Bodo community, Gokana Local Government Area of Rivers State, igniting concerns over environmental degradation and potential disruptions to Nigeria’s oil production.

This incident unfolds against a backdrop of escalating political tensions in the state, which analysts warn could exacerbate insecurity and further threaten oil operations.

The explosion occurred late Monday night near the Bodo-Bonny road, a critical infrastructure project currently under construction. Eyewitnesses reported a massive fire outbreak, with thick black smoke and flames engulfing the surrounding mangrove forests. The TNP is a vital conduit for transporting crude oil to the Bonny export terminal in Rivers State, and any disruption to its operations could significantly impact Nigeria’s oil exports.

Environmental groups have long voiced concerns about oil-related activities in the Niger Delta, particularly in areas like Ogoniland, which have suffered extensive pollution from past oil spills. The recent explosion threatens to compound these environmental challenges, affecting local communities that rely on the ecosystem for their livelihoods.

Political Crisis Fuels Insecurity and Threatens Oil Production

The pipeline explosion is believed to have been instigated by the deepening political crisis in Rivers State, marked by a power struggle between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his predecessor, Nyesom Wike, now the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The rift has led to a divided State House of Assembly, with factions loyal to each leader.

Earlier this month, energy economist Kelvin Emmanuel cautioned the federal government that the political turmoil could lead to insecurity affecting oil production. He remarked, “You want to raise crude oil output but you’re watching the state that contributes the most feedstock descend into anarchy that might necessitate a state of emergency. We are just not serious!”

Supreme Court Ruling Intensifies Legislative-Executive Standoff

The crisis escalated following a Supreme Court judgment affirming the legitimacy of 27 members of the Rivers State House of Assembly, who were previously accused of defection by Governor Fubara. The court upheld earlier decisions, stating that these lawmakers did not defect from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC), as alleged. This ruling has intensified the standoff between the legislative and executive branches in the state.

Fubara has accused the Assembly of obstructing his efforts to implement the Supreme Court’s judgment, particularly concerning the presentation of the 2025 Appropriation Bill. The governor claimed that the lawmakers’ actions were hindering governance and development in the state. The lawmakers led by Amaewhule have refused to honor the notice of the governor for the re-presentation of the budget, and have instead, served notices of misconduct to the governor and his deputy.

Accusations of Federal Interference

President Bola Tinubu’s administration has faced allegations of allowing Minister Nyesom Wike to leverage federal influence and the judiciary to destabilize Rivers State.

An 11-member Independent Judicial Accountability Panel, which included three retired justices, criticized the Supreme Court’s handling of the political crisis in Rivers State. On Friday, March 14, 2025, the panel faulted the court’s judgment, suggesting it set a dangerous precedent that could destabilize Nigeria’s legal and political systems.

The escalating crisis has drawn national attention, with political figures like Peter Obi, the 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate, urging everyone to sheath their sword. Obi in a statement on Tuesday, emphasized that the people of Rivers State are the real losers in the ongoing political drama and called for an end to the crisis to prevent further harm to the state’s stability and development.

“Looking at the ongoing crisis in Rivers State, we see yet another glaring example of how our democracy and governance is not serving it’s purpose, the welfare of the people of River State. The disagreement is not about improving the measurable indices of development: education, healthcare, or lifting people out of poverty but rather for reasons that do not in any way benefit the people of Rivers State and Nigeria in general,” he said.

“I fully understand the impact of what is happening in Rivers State. The real losers are the people—their welfare and the future of the society their children will live in.

“My respectful appeal to all those involved is to reconsider their positions and reflect on the grace God has bestowed upon them as leaders. They must think about the suffering people of Rivers State and work towards a better future for their children.”

Despite rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)—AI that can match or surpass human intelligence across all domains—remains an elusive goal. Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind, has projected that AGI could start emerging in the next five to ten years, a timeline that contradicts more aggressive predictions by some of his industry peers, including Elon Musk, who has warned that AI capable of surpassing human intelligence could arrive as soon as 2025.

Speaking at a briefing in DeepMind’s London offices on Monday, Hassabis defined AGI as “a system that’s able to exhibit all the complicated capabilities that humans can,” while emphasizing that today’s AI models, despite their impressive capabilities, remain far from achieving that level of intelligence.

“I think today’s systems, they’re very passive,” he said. “There’s still a lot of things they can’t do. But I think over the next five to ten years, a lot of those capabilities will start coming to the fore, and we’ll start moving towards what we call artificial general intelligence.”

Diverging Views on AGI’s Arrival

Hassabis’ measured outlook places him in contrast with other AI leaders who predict a much faster timeline for AGI. Dario Amodei, CEO of AI startup Anthropic, told CNBC in January that he expects AI systems that are “better than almost all humans at almost all tasks” to emerge in just two to three years. Cisco’s Chief Product Officer Jeetu Patel has gone even further, suggesting that meaningful evidence of AGI could appear as early as 2025.

Musk, one of the most vocal figures in the AI space, said last year that AI systems would likely surpass human intelligence by 2025, a claim that has fueled his calls for strict regulation. Musk has repeatedly warned that AI poses a serious threat to human civilization, arguing that without oversight, its rapid development could lead to catastrophic consequences.

Speaking at the World Government Summit in Dubai, Musk reiterated his concerns, saying, “AI is one of the biggest threats to the future of civilization.” He has called for regulatory bodies to oversee AI development, comparing the technology’s potential risks to those posed by nuclear weapons.

However, like Hassabis, many experts remain skeptical of the 2025 timeline. Robin Li, CEO of Chinese tech giant Baidu, has suggested that AGI is “more than 10 years away,” emphasizing that while AI is advancing quickly, it still lacks the fundamental reasoning and adaptability of human intelligence.

The Challenges of Achieving AGI

Although there is notable rapid evolution of AI systems like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini, and Anthropic’s Claude, developing AGI requires overcoming several fundamental challenges.

According to Hassabis, the biggest obstacle is getting AI to truly understand and interact with the real world. While AI has excelled in structured environments, such as playing strategy games like Go or Starcraft, transferring those problem-solving abilities to the complexities of real-world decision-making remains an immense challenge.

“The question is, how fast can we generalize the planning ideas and agentic kind of behaviors, planning and reasoning, and then generalize that over to working in the real world, on top of things like world models—models that are able to understand the world around us?” Hassabis explained.

Multi-Agent AI Systems As A Possible Path to AGI

One promising avenue for AGI development is the advancement of multi-agent AI systems—networks of AI models that can collaborate, compete, and communicate to accomplish tasks. Hassabis pointed to DeepMind’s work on training AI agents to master Starcraft, a complex strategy game requiring high-level decision-making and coordination.

“We’ve done a lot of work on that with things like Starcraft in the past, where you have a society of agents, or a league of agents, and they could be competing, they could be cooperating,” he said.

Thomas Kurian, CEO of Google Cloud, added that enabling AI agents to communicate and share information with one another is a key step in developing AGI.

“Those are all elements that you need to be able to ask an agent a question, and then once you have that interface, other agents can communicate with it,” he said.

The Future of Human-Like Intelligence in AI

While AI models continue to break new ground in areas like natural language processing, image generation, and autonomous decision-making, the prospect of truly human-like intelligence remains distant. AI today excels at pattern recognition, data analysis, and performing specialized tasks, but it still struggles with abstract reasoning, intuition, and common-sense understanding—qualities that define human intelligence.

For AGI to become a reality, AI systems are expected to develop the ability to generalize knowledge across different domains, understand context deeply, and make independent decisions in unpredictable situations. While incremental progress is being made, the kind of breakthrough required for AGI is still an open question.

Hassabis’ prediction of a 10-year timeline suggests that AGI is not an imminent reality, contradicting Musk’s warnings of AI surpassing human intelligence within the next two years. The debate highlights a broader uncertainty about AI’s trajectory—whether it will steadily progress toward human-like intelligence or hit fundamental roadblocks that delay AGI indefinitely.

The Next Frontier—Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)

While AGI remains a long-term goal, some tech leaders are already speculating about the next step: Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI), which would not only match but surpass human intelligence. However, the timeline for ASI is even more uncertain than AGI.

“No one really knows when superintelligence will happen,” Hassabis admitted.

However, analysts believe that if AGI does emerge in the next decade, it will represent one of the most significant technological shifts in human history. Unlike today’s AI systems, which are highly specialized in narrow tasks, AGI would be capable of reasoning, learning, and adapting in ways that rival human cognition. This is expected to revolutionize industries from healthcare to finance while raising profound ethical and existential questions about AI governance, safety, and control.

Musk’s push for regulation stems from concerns that, if left unchecked, AI could develop in ways that pose existential threats to humanity. However, with leading AI researchers still struggling to bridge the gap between today’s AI models and true AGI, the future of human-like intelligence in AI remains speculative.