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Tariff-hit German Exports to the US Decline Sharply, Analysis Finds

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German economy has witnessed a sharp decline in the German exports to the United States in 2025, largely attributed to U.S. tariffs imposed under President Donald Trump’s administration.

A December 2025 study by the German Economic Institute (IW), commissioned by the German Foreign Office and reported widely including by Reuters and Xinhua, found that overall German exports to the U.S. fell by approximately 7.8% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025.

This reversed years of steady growth averaging nearly 5% annually from 2016–2024. Automotive— motor vehicles and parts: down ~14%, hardest hit, accounting for nearly half of the global export decline in this sector for Germany.

Mechanical engineering/machinery: down 9.5% impacted by 50% U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum inputs. Chemicals: down 9.5% partly due to tariffs, but also domestic factors like high energy prices.

These three sectors alone contributed over two-thirds of the total decline. Monthly exports to the U.S. showed volatility, with front-loading boosts early in the year like +8.5% MoM in February ahead of tariffs, followed by sharp drops, five consecutive monthly declines from April to August, hitting a low of €10.9 billion in August—a 4-year low.

By October 2025, exports to the U.S. were €11.3 billion down 7.8% MoM from September and 8.3% YoY. The tariffs stemmed from Trump’s “America First” policy, starting with higher rates, like 25% on vehicles initially, 50% on steel/aluminum, later moderated to a 15% baseline on most EU goods via an August 2025 EU-U.S. agreement.

Despite this partial relief, the elevated duties raised costs, reduced competitiveness, and prompted some price increases or production shifts by German firms like Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz.

Economists note this represents a “new normal” for transatlantic trade, with limited prospects for quick recovery unless tariffs are rolled back—unlikely in the near term. Germany has partially offset losses by increasing exports to markets like China, but the U.S. remains a critical partner despite the downturn.

The sharp decline in German exports to the United States—down 7.8% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025—has significant ripple effects across Germany’s export-dependent economy, exacerbating existing challenges like high energy costs and weak global demand.

Germany, already contracting in 2023 -0.3% and 2024 -0.2%, faced forecasts revised to zero growth or slight contraction in 2025 directly due to U.S. tariffs. The government and leading institutes like ifo and Bundesbank cited tariffs as the primary drag, potentially marking a historic third consecutive year without growth.

Analysts estimated tariffs shaved 0.1–0.3 percentage points off GDP, with risks of a “slight recession” if duties persisted. The hardest-hit sectors—autos (14% drop), machinery (9.5%), and chemicals (~9.5%)—accounted for over two-thirds of the total export decline.

These industries employ millions and drive innovation; reduced U.S. demand led to margin compression, potential layoffs, and scaled-back investments. German automakers  absorbed higher costs or passed them on, eroding competitiveness.

Germany partially offset U.S. losses by boosting exports to markets like China +5.4% in some months and non-EU countries overall. However, simultaneous weak demand from China compounded pressures on the export model.

Experts from the German Economic Institute (IW) described Q3 2025 export levels as a likely long-term baseline, assuming no major tariff rollback. The August 2025 EU-U.S. deal moderated duties to 15% on most goods with higher rates on steel/aluminum at 50%, but this still represented the most restrictive transatlantic regime in decades.

Tariffs highlighted vulnerabilities in Germany’s export-led growth, prompting calls for diversification to India, South America, reduced intra-EU barriers, and a shift toward services. Some forecasts suggested medium-term reallocation from industry to less tariff-sensitive sectors.

The policy contributed to broader protectionism concerns, disrupting supply chains and raising bureaucratic hurdles like the origin rules risking 200% punitive duties. While Germany suffered disproportionately as the U.S.’s largest EU trading partner, retaliatory risks loomed if negotiations failed.

While not catastrophic, the tariffs reinforced Germany’s economic fragility in 2025, delaying recovery and underscoring the need for adaptability in a more fragmented global trade environment. Limited prospects for quick U.S. relief suggest ongoing challenges into 2026.

ServiceNow strikes $7.75bn Armis Acquisition deal to deepen cybersecurity push as AI risks multiply

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ServiceNow said on Tuesday it will acquire cybersecurity startup Armis in a cash deal valued at $7.75 billion, marking one of the company’s largest acquisitions to date as it moves to strengthen its security offerings amid rising artificial intelligence-driven threats.

Shares of the enterprise software company fell about 3% following the announcement.

ServiceNow said the acquisition will significantly expand its cybersecurity capabilities and more than triple its market opportunity for security and risk solutions, as companies grapple with increasingly complex digital environments and a surge in AI-powered attacks.

“This is about making a strategic move to accelerate growth, and we see the opportunity for our customers,” Chief Executive Bill McDermott said on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street. “In this AI world, especially with the agents, you’re going to need to protect these enterprises because every intrusion is a multimillion-dollar problem.”

The company said the deal is expected to close in the second half of next year and will be financed through a combination of cash and debt.

The acquisition underscores ServiceNow’s aggressive dealmaking in 2025 as it looks to sustain growth and position itself as a central platform for enterprise operations in an AI-driven economy. Earlier this year, ServiceNow agreed to buy AI agent platform Moveworks for $2.85 billion, and in early December announced plans to acquire identity security firm Veza.

McDermott said the Armis deal fits squarely into that broader strategy. “ServiceNow will have the only AI control tower that drives workflow, action, and business outcomes across all of these environments,” he said, pointing to the company’s ambition to unify IT operations, security, and automation under a single platform.

Armis, based in California, specializes in cyber exposure management, helping organizations identify and secure internet-connected devices, including those often overlooked by traditional security tools. That includes everything from medical devices and industrial equipment to operational technology systems increasingly connected to corporate networks.

Bloomberg had reported earlier this month that Armis was exploring a possible deal with ServiceNow at a valuation of around $7 billion, signaling growing interest in the company as cybersecurity spending accelerates.

In November, Armis said it raised $435 million at a valuation of $6.1 billion. At the time, co-founder Yevgeny Dibrov told CNBC that the company was considering an initial public offering in 2026 or 2027, but said his immediate focus was pushing the business past $1 billion in annual recurring revenue.

“The need for what Armis is doing and what we are building, in this cyber exposure management and security platform, is just increasing,” Dibrov said then, adding that demand for its tools was “very unique and huge.”

ServiceNow said Armis has now surpassed $340 million in annual recurring revenue, representing 50% year-over-year growth and up from about $300 million disclosed in August. That growth profile, combined with Armis’ focus on device-level security, appears to have made it an attractive target as enterprises expand their use of AI agents, automation, and connected systems.

The deal also reflects broader trends in the technology sector. With the initial public offering market only gradually recovering, many fast-growing startups are choosing to stay private longer or pursue acquisitions instead. Companies such as Stripe and Databricks have raised large sums in private markets, while strategic buyers with strong balance sheets are using M&A to secure growth and capabilities.

Cybersecurity has emerged as one of the hottest areas for consolidation. As AI lowers the barrier for launching sophisticated attacks, enterprises are increasing their spending to protect data, systems, and critical infrastructure. This year alone has seen several blockbuster security deals, including Google’s $32 billion acquisition of cloud security startup Wiz and Palo Alto Networks’ $25 billion agreement to buy CyberArk.

The Armis acquisition strengthens ServiceNow’s push to become a central operating layer for large organizations, combining workflow automation, AI agents, and security into a single platform. While investors initially reacted cautiously, the company is betting that tighter integration of cybersecurity into its core offering will pay off as enterprises confront higher risks and rising costs from breaches.

Nigeria’s $2.57bn Leads African Crude Exports to the U.S. in 2025, With Volumes Set to Rise Further in 2026

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Nigeria has emerged as Africa’s largest exporter of crude oil to the United States in the first eight months of 2025, a development that underscores growing relevance in the U.S. energy supply chain even as its domestic refining capacity expands and reshapes regional oil flows.

Data released by the U.S. Mission show that between January and August 2025, Nigeria shipped 33.23 million barrels of crude oil to the United States, valued at about $2.57 billion. The volume represented more than half of all crude oil exports from Africa to the U.S. during the period, placing Nigeria well ahead of other African producers supplying the American market.

In a post on its official X handle, the U.S. Mission described Nigeria as the leading African exporter of crude oil to the United States over the period, noting that the strong trade relationship “creates jobs and drives prosperity on both sides of the Atlantic.”

Strong exports despite shifting trade patterns

The strong export performance comes at a time of notable changes in Nigeria–U.S. petroleum trade. In a historic reversal earlier this year, Nigeria briefly imported more crude oil from the United States than it exported, according to figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). This occurred in February and March 2025, reflecting a combination of reduced U.S. East Coast demand for Nigerian crude and rising domestic crude requirements within Nigeria.

EIA data show that U.S. crude exports to Nigeria climbed to 111,000 barrels per day in February and 169,000 b/d in March. Over the same period, U.S. imports from Nigeria dropped to 54,000 b/d and 72,000 b/d, respectively, from 133,000 b/d in January. The shift highlighted how quickly Nigeria’s oil trade dynamics are evolving as local refining capacity expands.

Dangote Refinery and the transition to refined exports

At the center of this transition is the Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest, with a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. The refinery began processing crude oil in January 2024 and is expected to reach full capacity soon. Its growing appetite for crude has altered Nigeria’s internal supply balance, temporarily reducing export volumes at certain points while increasing imports to optimize feedstock blends and logistics.

Looking ahead, analysts expect Nigeria’s crude exports to the U.S. to rise again in 2026, as the Dangote Refinery expands its markets for refined petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

The expansion of refined product exports is also expected to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuels, free up foreign exchange, and improve the overall efficiency of the oil sector. For the U.S., increased imports of Nigerian refined products would add another layer to the energy relationship, shifting part of the trade from crude-only flows to higher-value petroleum products.

However, Nigeria’s position as the top African crude supplier to the U.S. reinforces its strategic role in transatlantic energy trade at a time when global oil flows are being reshaped by geopolitics, refinery closures in parts of the West, and changing demand patterns. Nigerian crude, which is relatively light and low in sulphur, remains attractive to U.S. refiners seeking flexibility and cleaner feedstocks.

For Nigeria, sustained demand from the U.S. provides a critical source of foreign exchange and revenue, supporting public finances and investment in upstream production, pipelines, and export terminals. It also strengthens bilateral economic ties, opening the door to deeper cooperation in energy infrastructure, technology, and downstream investments.

More broadly, the 2025 export figures point to the resilience of Nigeria’s oil sector despite persistent challenges, including production disruptions, security concerns, and global price volatility. Crude oil production has notably increased over the past year, with about 2mbpd being targeted in 2026.

Amazon Expands Alexa+ Into an AI Service Hub With New Travel, Commerce, and Local Business Integrations

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Amazon is broadening the scope of its AI-powered digital assistant Alexa+ as it seeks to transform the long-running voice service into a central gateway for travel bookings, local services, and everyday commerce, a move that underscores how artificial intelligence is reshaping the way consumers interact with online platforms.

The company said on Thursday that Alexa+ will add new integrations with Angi, Expedia, Square, and Yelp beginning in 2026. The new partners will allow users to book hotels, compare prices, manage reservations, request home-service quotes, schedule salon appointments, and interact with local businesses directly through conversational prompts.

With Expedia, users will be able to search for hotels, compare options, and manage bookings, or simply describe their preferences and let Alexa generate recommendations, such as finding pet-friendly accommodation for a weekend trip. Angi’s integration is aimed at home improvement and maintenance, enabling customers to source contractors and request estimates. Square and Yelp will expand Alexa’s role in local commerce, connecting discovery, bookings, and payments for restaurants, salons, and other small businesses.

These additions build on Alexa+’s existing integrations with services including Fodor, OpenTable, Suno, Ticketmaster, Thumbtack, and Uber. Collectively, they represent Amazon’s most concerted effort yet to reposition Alexa from a primarily smart-speaker tool into a full-scale AI concierge capable of handling multi-step tasks across different sectors.

Amazon’s broader ambition is to reduce friction between intent and action. Instead of opening multiple apps or browsing the web, users are meant to rely on Alexa+ as a single conversational interface that can understand context, refine requests through follow-up questions, and complete transactions on their behalf. The assistant is designed to support natural back-and-forth conversations, allowing users to adjust plans or preferences in real time.

The strategy mirrors a wider shift across the technology sector. As generative AI becomes more capable, companies are increasingly treating AI assistants as platforms rather than standalone tools. OpenAI has been moving in a similar direction by integrating third-party services into ChatGPT, while Google has been embedding its Gemini assistant across Android devices and productivity software. For Amazon, which has invested heavily in AI and cloud infrastructure through AWS, Alexa+ is a consumer-facing test of how AI can drive engagement and, eventually, revenue.

Amazon has struggled for years to monetize Alexa despite its presence in millions of households. Voice shopping never scaled as once envisioned, and most interactions remained limited to simple tasks like setting timers or controlling smart home devices. By folding in travel, local services, and commerce, Amazon is betting that AI-driven conversations can unlock higher-value use cases and make Alexa indispensable in daily decision-making.

The company offered limited but telling insight into early usage patterns. According to Amazon, service providers already integrated into Alexa+, such as Thumbtack and Vagaro, have seen strong engagement from early adopters, suggesting that users are willing to experiment with using AI assistants to manage real-world services.

Still, significant hurdles remain. Convincing consumers to change entrenched habits built around mobile apps and websites will not be easy. For AI assistants to gain widespread acceptance as substitutes for apps, they must be at least as reliable, transparent, and fast as traditional interfaces. Any friction, errors, or lack of clarity around pricing and confirmations could quickly erode trust.

Scale is another challenge. Traditional app stores offer vast ecosystems, while AI assistants rely on curated partnerships. Amazon and its rivals will either need to dramatically expand the range of available services or become highly adept at recommending the right service at the right moment. There is also a fine line between helpful suggestions and prompts that users may perceive as advertising, a risk that could undermine adoption if not carefully managed.

The expansion of Alexa+ comes at a critical moment for Amazon. Competition in consumer AI is intensifying, and rivals are racing to define how people will interact with digital services in an AI-first era. By embedding Alexa more deeply into commerce, travel, and local services, Amazon is signaling that it sees conversational AI not just as a feature, but as a foundational layer for the next phase of the internet.

If successful, Alexa+ could finally give the e-commerce giant a return on its years-long investment in voice technology.

Why Lying To Your Chatbot Might Get You The Truth Amid Growing AI Sycophancy Problem: AI Pioneer

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Artificial intelligence chatbots are designed to be helpful and engaging, but according to one of AI’s founding figures, that very eagerness can make them unhelpfully flattering.

Yoshua Bengio, a professor at the Université de Montréal and one of the so-called “AI godfathers,” says chatbots are often too eager to please, rendering them ineffective for providing critical feedback.

Speaking on the Diary of a CEO podcast on December 18, Bengio explained that he found AI chatbots consistently gave him positive feedback on his research ideas, rather than candid, constructive criticism.

“I wanted honest advice, honest feedback. But because it is sycophantic, it’s going to lie,” he said.

To overcome this, Bengio adopted a counterintuitive strategy: he presented his ideas as if they belonged to a colleague rather than himself.

“If it knows it’s me, it wants to please me,” he said, noting that this simple tactic produced much more critical and informative responses from the AI.

Bengio’s observations highlight a phenomenon AI researchers are increasingly concerned about: “sycophancy,” or the tendency of AI systems to prioritize user satisfaction over accuracy or objectivity. He emphasized that while such behavior may seem benign, it can have unintended consequences.

“This sycophancy is a real example of misalignment. We don’t actually want these AIs to be like this,” Bengio said, referring to the broader problem of AI alignment, where systems fail to behave according to human intentions despite appearing cooperative.

The problem extends beyond academic feedback. Bengio warned that positive reinforcement from AI could cause users to form emotional attachments to the technology, potentially distorting human judgment or reliance on the AI.

“You can become emotionally attached to this technology if it’s constantly agreeing with you or flattering you,” he said.

Bengio has been actively addressing these risks in the field of AI safety. In June, he launched LawZero, a nonprofit focused on mitigating dangerous behaviors in frontier AI systems, including lying, cheating, and other manipulative tendencies. The organization aims to develop frameworks for building AI that can act safely and ethically while still being genuinely helpful.

Other research has supported Bengio’s concerns about over-agreeable AI. In September 2025, a study reported by Business Insider journalist Katie Notopoulos analyzed how AI models responded to moral judgment tasks. Researchers from Stanford, Carnegie Mellon, and the University of Oxford fed confession-style posts from a Reddit page into chatbots and asked the systems to evaluate whether the behavior described was ethically wrong. In 42% of cases, the AI judged the confessions as acceptable, contrary to human reviewers’ assessments. The study suggested that AI often defaults to reassurance, even when that conflicts with widely shared social or ethical standards.

The sycophancy problem has also caught the attention of AI companies themselves. OpenAI, for instance, removed an update to ChatGPT earlier this year after discovering it led to “overly supportive but disingenuous” responses. The company said the move aimed to make the AI more honest and balanced in its advice, rather than simply agreeing with users to maintain engagement.

Bengio’s observations are particularly timely as AI tools are becoming increasingly embedded in professional, educational, and personal contexts. From automated tutoring to workplace decision support, these systems are expected to provide guidance that users can trust. Yet if AI continues to favor flattery over truth, it risks eroding confidence and fostering dependency on flawed advice.

Experts argue that mitigating sycophancy will require not only technical solutions but also careful design of user interactions. Ensuring that AI models provide critical feedback without causing emotional discomfort or alienation is a delicate balance. Open-source AI systems, which allow for more transparent monitoring and customization, may help users understand and control how chatbots respond.

For now, Bengio’s unconventional solution, lying to the chatbot, illustrates both the problem and the potential workaround. By disguising the source of his ideas, he was able to elicit more candid responses, exposing a fundamental tension in AI design: systems built to be agreeable and helpful may inadvertently become unreliable advisors.

As AI technologies evolve, the challenge will be to create systems that combine utility, honesty, and ethical alignment—tools that can disagree when necessary, offer critical insights, and maintain human trust without fostering emotional dependency. Bengio’s work, alongside other researchers in AI safety and alignment, underpins the urgency of addressing these issues before increasingly capable AI becomes a central part of everyday decision-making.