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Nigeria Tops Africa’s Stock Market Rankings in 2026 With Record Dollar Gain

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The Nigerian stock market has emerged as Africa’s best-performing equity market in 2026, marked by rising valuations.

According to reports, the Nigerian exchange delivered a remarkable 34.4% year-to-date return in dollar terms as of February 20, 2026. This comes as the naira currently trades at N1,333 to 1 dollar.

This significant performance marks a major jump from last year, when the market ranked fourth on the continent, signaling renewed global confidence in Nigeria’s capital markets.

According to market data highlighted in a chart by Businessday, Nigeria leads a strong cohort of African exchanges experiencing positive momentum. Tanzania follows closely with a 33.4% return, while Zimbabwe posted 31.9%.

Other notable performers include Ghana (28.6%), Egypt (21.7%), and Zambia (19.5%). Markets in Uganda (18.1%), BRVM (16.7%), Kenya (12.4%), and Namibia (12.4%) complete the top ten.

Nigeria’s stock market rally has been supported by a combination of macroeconomic and market-specific factors. A stronger naira has enhanced dollar-denominated returns, making the market more attractive to international investors. At the same time, improving liquidity conditions and increased foreign portfolio inflows have reinforced bullish sentiment across key sectors.

In recent years, the Nigerian stock market has transitioned from cautious recovery to sustained expansion, positioning itself as one of Africa’s most dynamic investment destinations.

Recall that in 2025, the exchange market, reached a historic milestone by crossing the N100 trillion mark for the first time. This achievement reflects renewed investor confidence and the resilience of the Nigerian capital market. The market capitalization rose from N99.94 trillion to N101.81 trillion, driven by strong demand from both domestic and foreign investors.

Investor sentiment has remained upbeat this year, with continued price rallies and expanding trading volumes signaling confidence in listed companies’ earnings potential. The surge in transactions also reflects growing participation from both institutional and retail investors seeking higher returns amid shifting macroeconomic conditions.

With foreign investors gradually returning to the market, valuation recovery has accelerated, pushing equity prices higher. One of the clearest indicators of the market’s growth is the rapid expansion of total market capitalisation. The value of listed equities has climbed sharply, reaching historic highs and adding trillions of naira within short periods.

This expansion demonstrates not only rising share prices but also increasing depth in the market as more capital flows into Nigerian equities. Many listed companies have reported stronger revenues and profitability with a growing share price. Also, better earnings typically support higher share valuations, encouraging sustained investor demand.

Notably, the significant growth of the Nigerian stock market, comes amid a new wave of retail participation, as young Nigerian investors increasingly turn to the market to build wealth. Interest among young Nigerians has intensified alongside growing conversations about stock investing across digital communities and social platforms.

On X (formerly Twitter), market updates, share price movements, and investment education content now circulate widely online, contributing to a gradual shift in financial awareness. Some analysts note that informal peer-to-peer knowledge sharing across social media has become a major driver of retail market entry.

Outlook

Nigeria’s leadership in Africa’s equity performance rankings underscores the country’s rising prominence as an investment destination. If current trends persist, the Nigerian market could sustain its appeal as a gateway for capital seeking exposure to Africa’s largest economy.

For observers of Africa’s financial landscape, the development highlights how currency stability, policy direction, and investor confidence can rapidly reshape capital market performance across the continent.

Europe Braces for Trade Chaos as Trump’s New 15% Global Tariff Sparks Alarm, Threatening Recent U.S. Deals

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European officials and business leaders expressed deep alarm and uncertainty on Monday, after President Donald Trump imposed a new universal 15% tariff on all imports over the weekend, according to a CNBC report.

The move came just days after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down his earlier IEEPA-based tariff regime.

The rapid escalation has raised serious questions about the viability of trade agreements signed with the United States last year, prompting calls for emergency consultations and warnings of potential retaliatory measures. The Supreme Court’s 6-3 ruling on Friday invalidated Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad “reciprocal” and fentanyl-related tariffs ranging from 10% to 50%.

Chief Justice John Roberts, writing for the majority, held that IEEPA does not authorize unilateral import taxes absent a direct, imminent foreign threat — effectively dismantling the legal pillar of Trump’s spring 2025 global tariff policy. Trump responded swiftly. On Saturday, he first announced a temporary 10% global levy under alternative legal authority, then raised it to 15% — the maximum rate permissible for 150 days without congressional approval.

“Effective immediately,” the president declared in a Truth Social post, framing the action as a necessary response to the court ruling and continued “unfair” trade practices by partners.

European Reaction: Chaos, Uncertainty, and Calls for Clarity

European Parliament International Trade Committee Chair Bernd Lange described the situation as “pure tariff chaos from the U.S. administration.”

“No one can make sense of it anymore — only open questions and growing uncertainty for the EU and other U.S. trading partners,” Lange wrote on X.

He announced an emergency meeting of the trade committee on Monday to assess the implications and proposed suspending implementation of the U.S.-EU trade deal until Brussels obtains “a comprehensive legal assessment and clear commitments from the U.S.” regarding the new tariffs.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told ARD that Europe would formulate “a very clear position” ahead of his planned early-March visit to the White House, deferring specifics to the European Commission. French Trade Minister Nicolas Forissier urged EU members not to be “naive” and to adopt a united response, telling the Financial Times that Brussels should prepare countermeasures if necessary.

The U.K. government expressed concern over potential erosion of its competitive advantage under last year’s bilateral deal, which set a baseline 10% tariff rate — lower than the EU’s 15%. A spokesperson said London would “work with the administration to understand how the ruling will affect tariffs for the U.K. and the rest of the world,” while insisting the “privileged trading position” would continue.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned Sunday on CBS’ Face the Nation that the trans-Atlantic business relationship could suffer: “It’s critically important that all people in the trade… have clarity about the future of the relationships. It’s a bit like driving. You want to know the rules of the road before you get in the car.”

USTR Greer Defends Continuity of Existing Deals

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer pushed back against claims that recent agreements are at risk. Speaking Sunday on CBS’ Face the Nation, Greer insisted: “The president’s policy was going to continue. That’s why they signed these deals, even while the litigation was pending. So we’re having active conversations with them. We want them to understand that these deals are going to be good deals. We expect to stand by them. We expect our partners to stand by them.”

Greer clarified that the Supreme Court ruling affected only IEEPA-based tariffs, leaving intact duties imposed under other statutes (Section 232, Section 301, antidumping/countervailing measures). He confirmed the administration would launch several new Section 301 investigations covering major trading partners, focusing on pharmaceutical pricing, industrial overcapacity, forced labor, digital services taxes, and discrimination against U.S. tech and digital goods.

Trade-Weighted Impact and Uneven Effects

Analysis from Swiss-based Global Trade Alert shows the new 15% tariff creates uneven pressure: the U.K. faces a 2.1 percentage point increase in its trade-weighted average tariff rate.

EU sees a 0.8 point rise.

Brazil and China benefit from sharp reductions (13.6 and 7.1 points, respectively) due to prior punitive measures being rolled back.

Tina Fordham of Fordham Global Insight told CNBC that the U.S.’s closest allies appear hardest hit.

“This is an administration that doesn’t think too much about second or third-order effects, and so what we’re seeing is that those countries that tried to get in early and do an advantageous deal… are being penalized,” she said.

The EU and the UK are expected to demand formal clarification on whether existing trade deals remain intact or if the new 15% rate overrides prior concessions. Failure to secure assurances could prompt retaliatory tariffs, potentially reigniting trans-Atlantic trade tensions just as both sides had begun stabilizing relations.

Treasury Yields Steady as Supreme Court Tariff Ruling and Trump’s 15% Levy Roil Trade Outlook

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The clash between the Supreme Court and President Donald Trump over tariff authority has injected a new layer of legal and policy uncertainty into a bond market already balancing inflation risks against slowing growth.


U.S. Treasury yields were little changed at the start of the week. Still, the calm in early trading masked a deeper recalibration underway in global markets after the Supreme Court of the United States curtailed much of President Donald Trump’s tariff framework — only for the White House to respond with a fresh escalation.

At 3:47 a.m. ET, the 10-year Treasury yield slipped less than one basis point to 4.076%. The 30-year bond yield edged marginally lower to 4.72%, while the 2-year note — often seen as the most sensitive to Federal Reserve policy expectations — held near 3.47%. One basis point equals 0.01 percentage point, and yields move inversely to prices.

The muted price action followed a dramatic legal development on Friday, when the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the president had wrongly relied on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs. The justices said the statute “does not authorize the President to impose tariffs,” invalidating a large share of duties that had reshaped U.S. trade policy.

The ruling was widely interpreted as a constraint on executive trade authority and briefly raised expectations that tariff-related price pressures could ease. Lower tariffs can translate into reduced import costs, particularly for intermediate goods used in manufacturing, and may eventually filter through to consumer prices. In theory, that dynamic would temper inflation and ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive interest rates.

Yet the policy path quickly shifted again. On Saturday, Trump said he would raise the global tariff rate to 15% from 10%, describing the move as “effective immediately” and signaling further levies ahead. In a post on Truth Social, he wrote: “I, as President of the United States of America, will be, effective immediately, raising the 10% Worldwide Tariff on Countries, many of which have been ‘ripping’ the U.S. off for decades, without retribution (until I came along!), to the fully allowed, and legally tested, 15% level.”

The legal basis for the new tariff level was not immediately detailed, leaving open questions about whether the administration will pursue alternative statutory authority or face renewed judicial challenges. For investors, that uncertainty is now part of the pricing equation.

Trade policy, inflation, and the Fed

Tariffs function as a tax on imports. Depending on how costs are absorbed across supply chains, they can raise input prices for U.S. companies, compress profit margins, or be passed on to consumers. In an environment where inflation remains a central concern, markets are sensitive to any measure that could reignite price pressures.

Bond traders are therefore weighing two competing forces. On one side, higher tariffs risk pushing up goods inflation, which could lift long-term inflation expectations and pressure yields higher. On the other hand, an escalation in trade tensions can slow economic growth by dampening corporate investment, disrupting supply chains, and weighing on global trade volumes. Slower growth tends to pull yields lower as investors seek safety in Treasurys.

The near-flat movement across the yield curve suggests markets have not yet reached a firm conclusion. The 2-year yield’s stability indicates that expectations for near-term Federal Reserve policy have not shifted decisively. Meanwhile, the modest moves in the 10- and 30-year maturities signal that long-term growth and inflation assumptions remain finely balanced.

Investors are also parsing what the Supreme Court’s decision means for executive power more broadly. If the ruling narrows the scope of unilateral trade action, future tariff initiatives could require clearer congressional backing. That would introduce a different political dynamic into trade negotiations and may affect the durability of policy changes — a key consideration for long-term capital allocation.

Data in focus

The market’s next catalysts come in the form of economic data. Investors are awaiting durable goods orders and factory orders figures, indicators closely tied to capital spending and manufacturing momentum. Strong readings would underscore economic resilience, potentially reinforcing the case for higher-for-longer rates. Weak numbers could amplify concerns that trade volatility is beginning to weigh on business confidence.

Friday’s producer price index will be particularly closely watched. As a measure of wholesale inflation, it often provides early insight into pipeline price pressures. A stronger-than-expected print could suggest that tariff costs are feeding through to producers, complicating the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight. A softer reading would strengthen the argument that underlying price pressures are easing, even amid trade turbulence.

Fiscal backdrop and supply pressures

The Treasury market is also contending with structural forces beyond trade policy. Persistent federal deficits require sustained issuance of government debt, increasing supply at a time when global demand dynamics are shifting. Foreign buyers, including central banks, monitor trade relations closely; heightened tariff disputes can influence cross-border capital flows and currency movements, indirectly affecting demand for U.S. government bonds.

Longer-dated yields, including the 30-year bond near 4.72%, embed not only inflation expectations but also compensation for fiscal risk and term premium. Any development that alters perceptions of U.S. economic stability or policy predictability can influence that premium.

For now, the early-week stability in yields points to a market in wait-and-see mode. The Supreme Court’s decision challenged the administration’s legal framework. The president’s swift move to raise tariffs underscored his commitment to an assertive trade stance. Between those developments, bond investors are recalibrating models that must account for legal risk, inflation trajectories, growth prospects, and the Federal Reserve’s reaction function — all at once.

In that sense, the basis-point moves tell only part of the story. Beneath the surface, the intersection of law, trade, and monetary policy is reshaping expectations about how far and how fast the U.S. economy can move in the months ahead.

Markets Showing Classic Risk-on and Risk-off Dynamics 

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The market is showing classic risk-on and risk-off dynamics right now amid heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East involving U.S.-Iran standoffs over nuclear issues and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil — Crude has pushed higher recently, with Brent settling around $71-72/barrel; recent closes near $71.76–$71.97, having surged on Iran conflict concerns and tighter physical markets. WTI is trading in the mid-$66 range around $66.39–$66.48.

This puts Brent just above $72, marking a notable rally from earlier lows and the highest levels since last summer in some reports. The move reflects a growing geopolitical risk premium, bolstered by falling U.S. inventories and fears of supply disruptions, even as longer-term forecasts point to potential oversupply pressures later in the year.

Gold is firmly bid and in a strong uptrend, recently surging above the $5,000/oz milestone with spot prices hitting around $5,040–$5,062 recently, with futures in the $5,039–$5,072 range. This reflects classic safe-haven demand driven by the same Middle East uncertainties, central bank buying which continues to accelerate, and gold’s decoupling from dollar strength in this environment.

Sovereign and institutional accumulation is now dominating, even with subdued retail demand in key markets like India and China.
Defense stocks are holding firm and often leading gains in this climate.

Aerospace & defense names like Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX, Boeing have seen solid year-to-date performance, with some up 20%+ in early 2026 amid elevated military spending expectations, U.S. budget increases, and European rearmament.

The sector benefits from long-term government contracts and acts as a relative defensive play during uncertainty. Recent catalysts include mobilization signals and potential escalations boosting sentiment.

The impact of the current geopolitical tensions primarily U.S.-Iran standoffs, with risks around the Strait of Hormuz on natural gas prices is more nuanced and regionally differentiated than the clear upside seen in oil, gold, and defense stocks.

U.S. Natural Gas (Henry Hub Benchmark)

Prices remain relatively subdued and are not showing a significant geopolitical premium at present. Henry Hub futures settled around $3.05–$3.07/MMBtu as of February 20, 2026, with spot prices in a similar range recent weekly averages dipping to ~$3.27 earlier in February after higher spikes from prior cold weather.

This reflects a sharp decline over the past month down ~37% in some measures, driven by: Record-high U.S. production ~108–109 bcf/day. Milder weather reducing heating demand. Storage draws below expectations, keeping inventories only modestly below normal.

The U.S. is a net exporter but largely self-sufficient, with domestic supply overwhelming any indirect effects from Middle East disruptions. Escalation could indirectly support prices via higher LNG demand if global trade tightens, but right now, bearish fundamentals dominate. Analysts note U.S. prices are near 4-month lows despite the tensions, highlighting a disconnect from crude’s rally.

European Natural Gas (TTF Benchmark)

This is where the geopolitical risk premium is more evident and supportive. TTF prices (Dutch hub, key European benchmark) are around €31.50–€32/MWh recently (March 2026 contract ~€31.88), with notable rallies on specific days (e.g., +6.5% in one session amid escalation fears).

Fears of disruptions to global LNG trade through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles ~20% of world LNG flows; heavily from Qatar, a top supplier to Europe. EU gas storage is well below average ~32% full vs. 49% 5-year norm, leaving less buffer against supply shocks.

Any prolonged Middle East conflict could tighten LNG availability, pushing Europe; increasingly reliant on seaborne imports post-Russia pipeline cuts toward higher spot prices. While not at crisis levels, the upward moves reflect safe-haven buying in gas futures, similar to oil’s risk premium but amplified by Europe’s vulnerability.

If tensions stay contained, natural gas upside remains capped — especially in the U.S., where weather and production are key. Europe sees more bid support. A blockade or major supply hit could spike global LNG prices sharply potentially flowing back to U.S. export terminals and lifting Henry Hub indirectly via higher export demand.

Analysts highlight this as a tail risk, with European prices more sensitive. Unlike oil which is directly tied to Persian Gulf crude flows, natural gas feels the impact more through LNG channel risks — boosting Europe and Asia more than the U.S. This explains why defense stocks and gold are firm, oil surges, but U.S. natgas lags.

The current climate adds a modest floor/underpin to natural gas (stronger in Europe), but it’s not driving a broad surge like in crude. Fundamentals (U.S. oversupply, mild weather) are counteracting much of the geopolitics for now. If headlines worsen, watch European TTF for the quickest reaction — and potential knock-on to U.S. LNG exports.

This setup screams geopolitical premium across energy, precious metals, and defense — exactly what we’d expect if tensions stay elevated or worsen. Markets are pricing in risk without full-blown disruption yet, but any further headlines could amplify moves. Keep an eye on developments in the Persian Gulf; that’s the main driver here.

SeamlessHR Processes N950 Billion in Salaries Across Africa in 2025, Underscoring Role as Workforce Infrastructure

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SeamlessHR, a provider of HR, payroll, learning, and recruitment solutions for businesses worldwide, processed more than N950 billion (over $600 million) in salaries across Africa in 2025, nearly doubling the N500 billion recorded in 2023.

The milestone reflects the company’s growing role in supporting payroll execution, HR operations, and workforce management for organizations across banking and financial services, oil and gas, retail, and the public sector.

“Payroll is the most trusted system in any organization. If it fails, trust begins to break down,” said Dr Emmanuel Okeleji, CEO of SeamlessHR. “Our responsibility is to ensure that millions of African workers are paid accurately, on time, and in full every single month, while giving employers the confidence to scale without operational risk. When you process payroll at this scale, you are operating critical infrastructure.”

Headquartered in Lagos with additional offices in Kenya and Ghana, SeamlessHR powers payroll for thousands of organizations and millions of employees across the continent. Its end-to-end platform enables businesses to manage the entire HR lifecycle from hiring and onboarding to retention and exit, through an integrated suite or modular deployment.

Core solutions include Applicant Tracking System (ATS), employee onboarding, payroll processing, leave management, performance management, talent development, succession and workforce planning, time and attendance, and learning and development. Leading enterprises and fast-growing businesses such as FCMB, Sterling Bank, Wema Bank, and VFD Group rely on the platform to manage payroll accurately at scale, with many also leveraging it for salary disbursements.

Founded in 2018 by Dr Emmanuel Okeleji and Deji Lana, SeamlessHR has continued to position workforce technology as a driver of productivity and organisational efficiency. In 2024, the company received the Business Leadership Award at the inaugural Chartered Institute of Personnel Management Mega Awards, alongside multinational corporations including TotalEnergies, MTN, Shell, Chevron, and ExxonMobil.

In January 2025, the company raised $10 million led by several prominent investors, including TLcom Capital, Capria Ventures, and Ingressive Capital. This investment is a significant endorsement of SeamlessHR’s vision and potential for growth. With the funding, SeamlessHR announced plans to use it to expand its operations, enhance its product offerings, and strengthen its market presence.

The African HR technology market is rapidly expanding, driven by the increasing adoption of digital solutions by businesses. With the rise in the use of smartphone and internet penetration, the growth of remote and hybrid work, and the need to manage distributed teams across borders are pushing companies to adopt cloud-based HR, payroll, and talent management platforms.

A major driver is regulatory complexity. As labour and tax rules evolve across different jurisdictions, businesses increasingly rely on automated systems to handle payroll accuracy, statutory deductions, and reporting. This reduces operational risk while improving trust between employers and employees especially important in sectors with large workforces such as banking, telecoms, retail, and oil and gas.

Notably, SeamlessHR is well-positioned to tap into this growing market, with its innovative platform and experienced management team. The startup is poised to capitalize on the growing demand for HR technology solutions in Africa.

Outlook

As African businesses expand and formalise operations, the company is expected to deepen its role as a critical layer of digital infrastructure supporting employment transparency, compliance, and financial inclusion.

Industry observers anticipate further regional expansion, broader integration with financial ecosystems, and enhanced automation capabilities as organisations demand more resilient systems to manage people, payments, and performance at scale.