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Home Blog Page 2480

The Entrepreneurs on the Platforms of Nations

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Comment: “It’s time for African entrepreneurs to start to figure things out and to stop sitting on the fence waiting for the government to provide solutions. Governments can support later but the momentum and direction must first come from African entrepreneurs.”

My Response:  I will respond by classifying entrepreneurs into two categories – typical entrepreneurs and pioneering entrepreneurs. Typical entrepreneurs are entrepreneurs  we meet daily, and they are common, and run in thousands in economies. Pioneering entrepreneurs are generation-shaping entrepreneurs who transform economies and nations.

Africa has many typical entrepreneurs and those entrepreneurs need platforms to operate. Economic platforms are built by governments and entrepreneurs build companies on them. The platforms include road, clean water, security, postal systems, and amenities which enable companies to grow and thrive. Some countries invest to build those platforms, even at losses, providing ecosystems for their typical entrepreneurs to do their things. 

For example, the US postal service has not recorded profit in two decades, and the US Amtrak rail system has not made a profit since 1971, and America has not shut them down. What is happening is that the postal service and other platforms are foundational platforms which enable businesses to thrive in America. 

But there are also moments when the governments cannot build platforms by themselves. What they then do, is to transfer their rights as governments to pioneering entrepreneurs. When America promulgated the eminent domain ordinance, it helped  railway tycoons like Vanderbilt to build a platform for commerce. In other words, those pioneering entrepreneurs receive special benefits to solve platform-level problems in societies.

When you read about Mellon, Carnegie, Rockefeller, and other men who built America, you will notice that the government assisted in many ways because those men were building platforms. When Bezos started Amazon, a pioneering ecommerce platform, America did not require Amazon to collect sales tax, thereby making Amazon products cheaper than the ones sold in physical stores. Without those benefits, Amazon will not be where it is today.

So, the comment has it both ways: Africa needs pioneering entrepreneurs even as the typical entrepreneurs need platforms to operate.  And someone must build those platforms because they must exist before the typical entrepreneurs can create companies on top of them.

Note this: Across human histories, from the UK to America, companies rise before nations can build strong institutions. In other words, if you expect Nigeria to have the best public institutions before great companies, you would keep waiting. Typically, what happens is that nations have great companies, and then use the taxes paid by those companies to build better public institutions. My thesis is that Nigeria cannot have solid public institutions, from great schools to good public institutions, until Nigeria has created category-leading private companies that would provide resources to build those institutions.”

You can then ask: why must it be that way? It is what it is. What the US Congress did for Amazon would be seen as cronyism in Nigeria, but sometimes, those things are done to seed new platforms.

My summary: it is either your government builds those platforms or it gives goodies to the pioneers to build the platforms, because the platforms must be built for any nation to experience development and prosperity.

Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger (AES) To Exit ECOWAS in Jan 2025, Offer Free Movement for the Region’s Citizens

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Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are on the verge of finalizing their exit from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a bloc they helped establish nearly five decades ago.

This decision, culminating in the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), represents a significant challenge to the vision of a unified and cooperative West Africa. The departure, scheduled for January 2025, comes after the countries rejected Ecowas’s demands to restore democratic governance.

The AES however, has offered an olive branch to ECOWAS members, allowing its citizens the rights to live and work across AES states, while goods circulate freely under the bloc’s agreements.

While the leaders of the bloc have provided a six-month grace period for the Sahel nations to reconsider their exit, the announcement marks a significant blow to ECOWAS, one of Africa’s most integrated regional organizations.

The departure of these three founding members of ECOWAS, established in 1975 to foster economic and political integration, underlines a major shift in West Africa’s regional politics. Together, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger account for over half of ECOWAS’s geographical land area and 76 million of its 446 million citizens.

While AES leaders frame their exit as a necessary pivot to sovereignty and regional security, many view it as a step backward for West Africa’s collective goals of economic unity and political stability.

However, to allay fears that their exit will harm political and economic growth of the region, the leaders of the three Sahel nations have sought to reassure the bloc of continued goodwill. AES Chairman and Mali’s military ruler, Assimi Goïta, emphasized that visa-free travel, residency rights, and the right of entry for ECOWAS citizens would remain intact within the AES.

The three nations, heavily reliant on neighboring ECOWAS coastal states for trade, risk significant isolation. Most migrants from these Sahel countries move to richer coastal economies, highlighting their dependence on the economic engine of ECOWAS.

The Back story: The Rise of Military Rule

The seeds of discord were sown with a series of military coups that toppled democratic governments across the Sahel. In 2020, a coup in Mali ousted President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, citing corruption and the government’s failure to address a growing jihadist insurgency.

Two years later, Burkina Faso followed suit, with the military overthrowing President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré under similar pretenses. The coup wave reached Niger in 2023, with soldiers seizing power and deposing President Mohamed Bazoum.

In each case, Ecowas swiftly condemned the takeovers, suspended the countries’ memberships, and imposed sanctions in an attempt to restore civilian rule. However, the juntas, buoyed by public support and regional solidarity, resisted. For the new military leaders, the sanctions became a rallying cry against what they perceived as undue interference and a reflection of ECOWAS’s alleged allegiance to Western powers, particularly France and the United States.

The Sahel leaders have accused ECOWAS of aligning too closely with Western powers, particularly France and the United States. This growing rift denotes broader geopolitical competition in the region, as Russia positions itself as an alternative ally for African states seeking to counter jihadist insurgencies.

Russia’s involvement, through private military contractors like the Wagner Group, has deepened, with some Sahel nations attributing military gains against jihadists to Russian support.

In Mali, the military junta expelled French forces and welcomed Russian military contractors, including the Wagner Group, to combat jihadist insurgents. Burkina Faso and Niger soon followed suit, citing the need for more effective security partnerships.

The Birth of the Alliance of Sahel States

In the aftermath of the Niger standoff with ECOWAS, the three nations announced the creation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in early 2024. The new bloc was founded on principles of security cooperation, political solidarity, and economic integration.

AES leaders framed the alliance as a necessity in the face of what they described as ECOWAS’s failures. Mali’s leader, Assimi Goïta, declared that the new bloc would “chart its own path” to regional stability and development. Burkina Faso’s junta leader, Ibrahim Traoré, echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the need for a Sahel-centric approach to the region’s challenges.

ECOWAS Leaders Extend Olive Branch

Despite the Sahel states’ assertion that their exit is “irreversible,” ECOWAS leaders are working to maintain dialogue. Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Togo’s Faure Gnassingbé have been tasked with leading ongoing negotiations.

During the ECOWAS summit in Nigeria, Commission President Omar Touray expressed disappointment at the impending departures but commended mediation efforts. “This is disheartening,” he said, noting the bloc’s commitment to preserving unity.

The January to July 2025 transitional period has been opened by the bloc so that the Sahel nations can rejoin ECOWAS should they reconsider.

Exploring the Messari’s 2025 Crypto Thesis, and 2024 As Turning Point for Crypto Policy Development

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The Trump administration, supported by a Republican-controlled Congress, is set to prioritize reshaping crypto regulations. A key move will be appointing a new SEC Chair and commissioners who are more open to innovation and industry engagement.

However, lasting regulatory clarity is expected to come from Congress rather than the SEC. With majorities in both chambers, Republicans are motivated to fulfill campaign promises by advancing legislation that establishes clear and supportive guidelines for the digital asset ecosystem.

Expect a modified version of FIT-21, incorporating elements of the Lummis-Gillibrand Responsible Financial Innovation Act and addressing Senate concerns regarding illicit finance, to be a top legislative priority. Passage of such legislation would establish a much-needed framework for digital asset issuers and intermediaries, clarifying jurisdictional lines between the SEC and CFTC, streamlining registration processes, and establishing tailored disclosure requirements.

The shift from regulatory uncertainty to a clear legal framework would also likely encourage institutional adoption and further integrate digital assets into the traditional financial system.

Stablecoin Legislation Gets Signed into Law

The stars are aligned for stablecoin legislation in 2025. With bipartisan support in Congress and a Trump Administration eager to promote financial innovation, a comprehensive stablecoin bill is highly likely to be enacted.

The final legislation will likely draw heavily from Chair McHenry’s Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act, incorporating a strengthened federal floor for state-qualified issuers and provisions addressing AML/CFT concerns to appease Senate Democrats. Expect a robust state pathway for issuers, fostering competition and innovation in the stablecoin market.

Establishing a federal stablecoin framework would bring crucial regulatory clarity, encouraging mainstream adoption, integration into payment systems, and strengthening the U.S. dollar’s position in global finance. With BRICS developing an alternative financial system—a move Trump has opposed, threatening 100% tariffs on adopters—the Administration may view U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins as a strategic tool to counter BRICS’ influence.

The future of decentralized stablecoins like DAI remains uncertain. While a regulatory framework for centralized stablecoins could accelerate their adoption, it may also place decentralized alternatives at a disadvantage due to challenges in meeting regulatory requirements. This shift could further strengthen the dominance of centralized stablecoins like USDC and USDT.

The ability of decentralized stablecoins to retain market share will hinge on their adaptability to the new regulatory environment and their capacity to demonstrate unique value in a more regulated ecosystem. However, innovation in decentralized stablecoins may stall, potentially delaying the realization of a fully decentralized financial system.

CBDC Development Continues, but Retail is Off the Table

Under a Trump Administration and a Republican-controlled Congress, a retail CBDC is highly unlikely. However, research and development of wholesale CBDCs will continue at the Federal Reserve. The Fed will explore potential use cases for wholesale CBDCs in cross-border payments and settlements, working with industry stakeholders to address privacy and security concerns.

Legislation will likely be enacted to explicitly prohibit the Fed from issuing a retail CBDC without clear Congressional authorization, further solidifying the Republican Party’s stance on protecting financial privacy.

This focus on wholesale CBDCs, while less impactful for individual consumers, could still have significant implications for the financial system, potentially improving efficiency and reducing costs for cross-border transactions. It could also create new opportunities for private sector innovation in developing and implementing CBDC-related technologies and services.

Self-Custody is Protected, but Privacy Remains a Battleground

With a Republican majority in Congress and a Trump Administration committed to protecting individual liberties, the right to self-custody will likely be codified through legislation. This would safeguard individuals’ ability to hold and control their own digital assets, a core tenet of the crypto community.

However, the debate over privacy-enhancing technologies, like mixers, will persist. Expect targeted legislation aimed at addressing the illicit use of mixers, while also seeking to preserve privacy for lawful transactions.

Policymakers face the challenge of balancing privacy rights, national security, and efforts to combat illicit finance. The outcome of this debate will significantly impact the future of financial privacy, shaping the adoption of privacy-preserving technologies in both crypto and traditional finance. Striking the right balance is essential to foster innovation while addressing legitimate law enforcement needs.

2024 Was a Turning Point for Crypto Policy Development – Messari

2024 was a turning point for crypto policy, setting the stage for transformative developments in 2025. If there ever were a year to embody “climbing a wall of worry,” 2024 might be it. After surviving the onslaught of inflation in 2022 and 2023, investors were still glancing over their shoulders in fear of its return.
When it became clearer that inflation had moderated, the focus shifted to a weakening labor market, begging the question: did the Fed overtighten or wait too long?
The first half of the year saw an intense struggle over the industry’s direction, with the SEC asserting its authority through aggressive enforcement actions. In response, the crypto sector, supported by allies in Congress, pushed back by advocating for clear, tailored legislation and pursuing judicial interventions to limit regulatory overreach.
In the latter half of the year, the political landscape shifted drastically as the Trump Campaign adopted a pro-crypto stance. With Trump’s eventual victory, expectations for a more favorable regulatory environment surged, establishing 2024 as a defining year for the evolution of crypto policy.
The SEC’s Enforcement Blitz:
The SEC, led by Chair Gary Gensler, intensified its “regulation by enforcement” approach in 2024, targeting major players across the crypto industry. High-profile cases rolling over from 2023 against Coinbase and Binance accused them of operating as unregistered securities exchanges, brokers, and clearing agencies, reflecting the SEC’s broad interpretation of existing securities laws.
The agency also set its sights on DeFi protocols like Uniswap, alleging unregistered securities offerings, and extended its reach into the creator economy by pursuing NFT projects for similar violations. While these actions led to some settlements and fines, they drew widespread criticism for stifling innovation and pushing crypto businesses to relocate offshore.
The SEC’s refusal to engage in rulemaking, despite repeated calls from industry and some members of Congress, further fueled frustration and calls for legislative intervention.
The SEC’s arguments in court, particularly its assertion that secondary market sales of crypto assets constitute investment contracts, were met with mixed results, highlighting the legal uncertainty surrounding the application of the Howey test to digital assets. The Debt Box case, where the SEC was sanctioned for making misleading statements to the court, further damaged the agency’s credibility and fueled calls for greater oversight.
Congressional Push for Regulatory Clarity:
In response to the SEC’s aggressive enforcement and the growing regulatory uncertainty, the House, under Republican leadership, made significant strides in advancing crypto-specific legislation. FIT-21, a comprehensive market structure bill, passed the House with a surprising level of bipartisan support, signaling a growing recognition that tailored rules for digital assets are necessary.
The Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act also advanced in the House, demonstrating bipartisan interest in establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins. However, these bills faced an uphill battle in the Democrat-controlled Senate, where the focus remained on addressing illicit finance concerns through proposals like DAAMLA and CANSEE, which the industry viewed as overly broad and potentially harmful to innovation.
Despite the Senate roadblocks, bipartisan efforts to address tax reporting requirements for digital asset brokers and promote blockchain innovation in non-financial sectors gained traction, suggesting potential areas for compromise in the future. The House also passed a resolution to repeal SAB-121, an SEC accounting rule that deterred banks from custodying digital assets, though President Biden ultimately vetoed the resolution.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has Lost a Confidence Vote Leading to Collapse of Coalitions

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Germany is indeed heading for early elections after Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote in parliament. Scholz’s coalition government collapsed, leading to a vote where 394 MPs voted against him, while only 207 supported him. The early elections are scheduled for February 23, 2025.

This political turmoil comes at a challenging time for Germany, with economic struggles and geopolitical tensions. The upcoming elections will be crucial in determining the future direction of Europe’s largest economy. Scholz had called the vote, expecting to lose it, weeks after his coalition collapsed. Later Monday he asked President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to dissolve the legislature soon and ask voters to head back to the ballot box.

Although the center-left chancellor continues in a caretaker role and with a minority in parliament, the political turmoil threatens months of paralysis until a new coalition government is formed. Embattled Scholz, 66, lags badly in the polls behind conservative opposition leader Friedrich Merz who heads the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of ex-chancellor Angela Merkel.

After more than three years at the helm, Scholz was plunged into crisis when his unruly three-party coalition collapsed on November 6, the day Donald Trump won re-election to the White House. The political turbulence has hit Germany as it struggles to revive a stuttering economy hammered by high energy prices and tough competition from China.

Olaf Scholz’s loss of the confidence vote and the subsequent call for early elections stem from several key issues:

Coalition Collapse: Scholz’s three-party coalition government, consisting of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), fell apart due to disagreements over fiscal policies. The FDP, led by Christian Lindner, opposed easing Germany’s strict debt rules to finance support for Ukraine and key infrastructure projects.

Economic Challenges: Germany is facing significant economic struggles, including a stalled economy and the need for massive investments in infrastructure and defense. Scholz’s proposals for increased spending were met with resistance from the opposition, particularly the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz.

Political Strategy: Scholz called for the confidence vote, fully expecting to lose, as a strategic move to trigger early elections. This decision was seen as a way to potentially revive his party’s political fortunes and set a new course for the country.

Public Perception: The collapse of the coalition and the subsequent political instability have affected public perception of Scholz’s leadership. The upcoming elections will be crucial in determining the future direction of Germany’s political landscape. These issues have created a complex and challenging environment for Scholz and his party as they prepare for the early elections in February 2025.

Political scientist Claire Demesmay of Sciences Po Paris said Germany was now in a sweeping process of reorientation which is “feeding fears within society that are reflected on the political level”. “We can see a political discourse that is more tense than a few years ago. We have a Germany plagued by doubt.”

Since Scholz’s argumentative three-party governing coalition collapsed in November, he had been reliant on support from the opposition conservatives to pass any new laws, effectively rendering his administration a lame-duck government. Given Germany’s stalled economy and the global crises facing the West, staggering on until the scheduled election date of September 2025 risked being seen as irresponsible by the electorate.

TymeBank Joins Africa’s Unicorn Club with $250 Million Series D Funding

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TymeBank, a South African Neobank, has officially joined Africa’s prestigious unicorn club following its successful $250 million Series D funding round, valuing the company at $1.5 billion.

The funding round was led by Nu Holdings, the parent company of NuBank, Latin America’s most valuable fintech, which invested $150 million for a 10% stake. Additional contributions included $50 million from M&G Catalyst Fund and $50 million from existing shareholders.

The latest funding round brings Tyme’s total capital raised to nearly $600 million, signaling renewed investor confidence in Fintechs despite recent global economic challenges. TymeBank recent unicorn status will see it emerge as Africa’s ninth unicorn, two months after Nigeria’s fintech company Moniepoint, gained unicorn status in October this year, following its $60m Series C funding.

Founded in 2019, aimed to disrupt South Africa’s traditional banking landscape by focusing on the underbanked segment. The Neobank operates a unique hybrid digital banking model, integrating online services with physical service points. Its primary focus is on building digital banks in emerging markets, providing products such as checking and savings accounts, debit cards, buy now, pay later services, and cash advances. The company currently serves 15 million customers across South Africa and the Philippines.

In South Africa, TymeBank has been a growth leader, boasting 10 million users. Its Philippines-based counterpart, Go Tyme, launched in partnership with the Gokongwei Group in 2022, has reached 5 million users. Together, these platforms have raised over $400 million in customer deposits and extended more than $600 million in financing to small businesses.

It is interesting to note that in January 2024, reports revealed that TymeBank turned its first-ever profit nearly five years post-launch. The Founder and Chairman of African Rainbow Capital (ARC), Patrice Motsepe, lauded the fintech for its historic profitability, citing more than four years of committed work, strategic investments, and “an unwavering commitment to the business’s core mission to offer quality banking services to all South Africans.”

TymeBank ascribes its achievement to its unique hybrid approach of combining digital channels with its, walk-in kiosks, made possible by long-standing, strategic partnerships with retailers, such as Pick n Pay, Boxer, and TFG, and loyal customers. The company also attributes its success to the unshakeable confidence of its shareholders.

Notably, Tyme Group, led by chairman and founder Con Jonker, is setting its sights on further expansion, with plans to enter Vietnam and Indonesia in 2025. The company remains majority-owned by Patrice Motsepe’s African Rainbow Capital (ARC), which holds a 40% stake.

Looking ahead, the company is targeting a New York Stock Exchange listing by 2028, with plans for a secondary listing in South Africa, cementing its position as a leader in emerging market fintech innovation.