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Exploring the Messari’s 2025 Crypto Thesis, and 2024 As Turning Point for Crypto Policy Development

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

The Trump administration, supported by a Republican-controlled Congress, is set to prioritize reshaping crypto regulations. A key move will be appointing a new SEC Chair and commissioners who are more open to innovation and industry engagement.

However, lasting regulatory clarity is expected to come from Congress rather than the SEC. With majorities in both chambers, Republicans are motivated to fulfill campaign promises by advancing legislation that establishes clear and supportive guidelines for the digital asset ecosystem.

Expect a modified version of FIT-21, incorporating elements of the Lummis-Gillibrand Responsible Financial Innovation Act and addressing Senate concerns regarding illicit finance, to be a top legislative priority. Passage of such legislation would establish a much-needed framework for digital asset issuers and intermediaries, clarifying jurisdictional lines between the SEC and CFTC, streamlining registration processes, and establishing tailored disclosure requirements.

The shift from regulatory uncertainty to a clear legal framework would also likely encourage institutional adoption and further integrate digital assets into the traditional financial system.

Stablecoin Legislation Gets Signed into Law

The stars are aligned for stablecoin legislation in 2025. With bipartisan support in Congress and a Trump Administration eager to promote financial innovation, a comprehensive stablecoin bill is highly likely to be enacted.

The final legislation will likely draw heavily from Chair McHenry’s Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act, incorporating a strengthened federal floor for state-qualified issuers and provisions addressing AML/CFT concerns to appease Senate Democrats. Expect a robust state pathway for issuers, fostering competition and innovation in the stablecoin market.

Establishing a federal stablecoin framework would bring crucial regulatory clarity, encouraging mainstream adoption, integration into payment systems, and strengthening the U.S. dollar’s position in global finance. With BRICS developing an alternative financial system—a move Trump has opposed, threatening 100% tariffs on adopters—the Administration may view U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins as a strategic tool to counter BRICS’ influence.

The future of decentralized stablecoins like DAI remains uncertain. While a regulatory framework for centralized stablecoins could accelerate their adoption, it may also place decentralized alternatives at a disadvantage due to challenges in meeting regulatory requirements. This shift could further strengthen the dominance of centralized stablecoins like USDC and USDT.

The ability of decentralized stablecoins to retain market share will hinge on their adaptability to the new regulatory environment and their capacity to demonstrate unique value in a more regulated ecosystem. However, innovation in decentralized stablecoins may stall, potentially delaying the realization of a fully decentralized financial system.

CBDC Development Continues, but Retail is Off the Table

Under a Trump Administration and a Republican-controlled Congress, a retail CBDC is highly unlikely. However, research and development of wholesale CBDCs will continue at the Federal Reserve. The Fed will explore potential use cases for wholesale CBDCs in cross-border payments and settlements, working with industry stakeholders to address privacy and security concerns.

Legislation will likely be enacted to explicitly prohibit the Fed from issuing a retail CBDC without clear Congressional authorization, further solidifying the Republican Party’s stance on protecting financial privacy.

This focus on wholesale CBDCs, while less impactful for individual consumers, could still have significant implications for the financial system, potentially improving efficiency and reducing costs for cross-border transactions. It could also create new opportunities for private sector innovation in developing and implementing CBDC-related technologies and services.

Self-Custody is Protected, but Privacy Remains a Battleground

With a Republican majority in Congress and a Trump Administration committed to protecting individual liberties, the right to self-custody will likely be codified through legislation. This would safeguard individuals’ ability to hold and control their own digital assets, a core tenet of the crypto community.

However, the debate over privacy-enhancing technologies, like mixers, will persist. Expect targeted legislation aimed at addressing the illicit use of mixers, while also seeking to preserve privacy for lawful transactions.

Policymakers face the challenge of balancing privacy rights, national security, and efforts to combat illicit finance. The outcome of this debate will significantly impact the future of financial privacy, shaping the adoption of privacy-preserving technologies in both crypto and traditional finance. Striking the right balance is essential to foster innovation while addressing legitimate law enforcement needs.

2024 Was a Turning Point for Crypto Policy Development – Messari

2024 was a turning point for crypto policy, setting the stage for transformative developments in 2025. If there ever were a year to embody “climbing a wall of worry,” 2024 might be it. After surviving the onslaught of inflation in 2022 and 2023, investors were still glancing over their shoulders in fear of its return.
When it became clearer that inflation had moderated, the focus shifted to a weakening labor market, begging the question: did the Fed overtighten or wait too long?
The first half of the year saw an intense struggle over the industry’s direction, with the SEC asserting its authority through aggressive enforcement actions. In response, the crypto sector, supported by allies in Congress, pushed back by advocating for clear, tailored legislation and pursuing judicial interventions to limit regulatory overreach.
In the latter half of the year, the political landscape shifted drastically as the Trump Campaign adopted a pro-crypto stance. With Trump’s eventual victory, expectations for a more favorable regulatory environment surged, establishing 2024 as a defining year for the evolution of crypto policy.
The SEC’s Enforcement Blitz:
The SEC, led by Chair Gary Gensler, intensified its “regulation by enforcement” approach in 2024, targeting major players across the crypto industry. High-profile cases rolling over from 2023 against Coinbase and Binance accused them of operating as unregistered securities exchanges, brokers, and clearing agencies, reflecting the SEC’s broad interpretation of existing securities laws.
The agency also set its sights on DeFi protocols like Uniswap, alleging unregistered securities offerings, and extended its reach into the creator economy by pursuing NFT projects for similar violations. While these actions led to some settlements and fines, they drew widespread criticism for stifling innovation and pushing crypto businesses to relocate offshore.
The SEC’s refusal to engage in rulemaking, despite repeated calls from industry and some members of Congress, further fueled frustration and calls for legislative intervention.
The SEC’s arguments in court, particularly its assertion that secondary market sales of crypto assets constitute investment contracts, were met with mixed results, highlighting the legal uncertainty surrounding the application of the Howey test to digital assets. The Debt Box case, where the SEC was sanctioned for making misleading statements to the court, further damaged the agency’s credibility and fueled calls for greater oversight.
Congressional Push for Regulatory Clarity:
In response to the SEC’s aggressive enforcement and the growing regulatory uncertainty, the House, under Republican leadership, made significant strides in advancing crypto-specific legislation. FIT-21, a comprehensive market structure bill, passed the House with a surprising level of bipartisan support, signaling a growing recognition that tailored rules for digital assets are necessary.
The Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act also advanced in the House, demonstrating bipartisan interest in establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins. However, these bills faced an uphill battle in the Democrat-controlled Senate, where the focus remained on addressing illicit finance concerns through proposals like DAAMLA and CANSEE, which the industry viewed as overly broad and potentially harmful to innovation.
Despite the Senate roadblocks, bipartisan efforts to address tax reporting requirements for digital asset brokers and promote blockchain innovation in non-financial sectors gained traction, suggesting potential areas for compromise in the future. The House also passed a resolution to repeal SAB-121, an SEC accounting rule that deterred banks from custodying digital assets, though President Biden ultimately vetoed the resolution.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has Lost a Confidence Vote Leading to Collapse of Coalitions

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

Germany is indeed heading for early elections after Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote in parliament. Scholz’s coalition government collapsed, leading to a vote where 394 MPs voted against him, while only 207 supported him. The early elections are scheduled for February 23, 2025.

This political turmoil comes at a challenging time for Germany, with economic struggles and geopolitical tensions. The upcoming elections will be crucial in determining the future direction of Europe’s largest economy. Scholz had called the vote, expecting to lose it, weeks after his coalition collapsed. Later Monday he asked President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to dissolve the legislature soon and ask voters to head back to the ballot box.

Although the center-left chancellor continues in a caretaker role and with a minority in parliament, the political turmoil threatens months of paralysis until a new coalition government is formed. Embattled Scholz, 66, lags badly in the polls behind conservative opposition leader Friedrich Merz who heads the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of ex-chancellor Angela Merkel.

After more than three years at the helm, Scholz was plunged into crisis when his unruly three-party coalition collapsed on November 6, the day Donald Trump won re-election to the White House. The political turbulence has hit Germany as it struggles to revive a stuttering economy hammered by high energy prices and tough competition from China.

Olaf Scholz’s loss of the confidence vote and the subsequent call for early elections stem from several key issues:

Coalition Collapse: Scholz’s three-party coalition government, consisting of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), fell apart due to disagreements over fiscal policies. The FDP, led by Christian Lindner, opposed easing Germany’s strict debt rules to finance support for Ukraine and key infrastructure projects.

Economic Challenges: Germany is facing significant economic struggles, including a stalled economy and the need for massive investments in infrastructure and defense. Scholz’s proposals for increased spending were met with resistance from the opposition, particularly the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz.

Political Strategy: Scholz called for the confidence vote, fully expecting to lose, as a strategic move to trigger early elections. This decision was seen as a way to potentially revive his party’s political fortunes and set a new course for the country.

Public Perception: The collapse of the coalition and the subsequent political instability have affected public perception of Scholz’s leadership. The upcoming elections will be crucial in determining the future direction of Germany’s political landscape. These issues have created a complex and challenging environment for Scholz and his party as they prepare for the early elections in February 2025.

Political scientist Claire Demesmay of Sciences Po Paris said Germany was now in a sweeping process of reorientation which is “feeding fears within society that are reflected on the political level”. “We can see a political discourse that is more tense than a few years ago. We have a Germany plagued by doubt.”

Since Scholz’s argumentative three-party governing coalition collapsed in November, he had been reliant on support from the opposition conservatives to pass any new laws, effectively rendering his administration a lame-duck government. Given Germany’s stalled economy and the global crises facing the West, staggering on until the scheduled election date of September 2025 risked being seen as irresponsible by the electorate.

TymeBank Joins Africa’s Unicorn Club with $250 Million Series D Funding

By
Ojukwu Emmanuel
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0

TymeBank, a South African Neobank, has officially joined Africa’s prestigious unicorn club following its successful $250 million Series D funding round, valuing the company at $1.5 billion.

The funding round was led by Nu Holdings, the parent company of NuBank, Latin America’s most valuable fintech, which invested $150 million for a 10% stake. Additional contributions included $50 million from M&G Catalyst Fund and $50 million from existing shareholders.

The latest funding round brings Tyme’s total capital raised to nearly $600 million, signaling renewed investor confidence in Fintechs despite recent global economic challenges. TymeBank recent unicorn status will see it emerge as Africa’s ninth unicorn, two months after Nigeria’s fintech company Moniepoint, gained unicorn status in October this year, following its $60m Series C funding.

Founded in 2019, aimed to disrupt South Africa’s traditional banking landscape by focusing on the underbanked segment. The Neobank operates a unique hybrid digital banking model, integrating online services with physical service points. Its primary focus is on building digital banks in emerging markets, providing products such as checking and savings accounts, debit cards, buy now, pay later services, and cash advances. The company currently serves 15 million customers across South Africa and the Philippines.

In South Africa, TymeBank has been a growth leader, boasting 10 million users. Its Philippines-based counterpart, Go Tyme, launched in partnership with the Gokongwei Group in 2022, has reached 5 million users. Together, these platforms have raised over $400 million in customer deposits and extended more than $600 million in financing to small businesses.

It is interesting to note that in January 2024, reports revealed that TymeBank turned its first-ever profit nearly five years post-launch. The Founder and Chairman of African Rainbow Capital (ARC), Patrice Motsepe, lauded the fintech for its historic profitability, citing more than four years of committed work, strategic investments, and “an unwavering commitment to the business’s core mission to offer quality banking services to all South Africans.”

TymeBank ascribes its achievement to its unique hybrid approach of combining digital channels with its, walk-in kiosks, made possible by long-standing, strategic partnerships with retailers, such as Pick n Pay, Boxer, and TFG, and loyal customers. The company also attributes its success to the unshakeable confidence of its shareholders.

Notably, Tyme Group, led by chairman and founder Con Jonker, is setting its sights on further expansion, with plans to enter Vietnam and Indonesia in 2025. The company remains majority-owned by Patrice Motsepe’s African Rainbow Capital (ARC), which holds a 40% stake.

Looking ahead, the company is targeting a New York Stock Exchange listing by 2028, with plans for a secondary listing in South Africa, cementing its position as a leader in emerging market fintech innovation.

The Art of Setting Stop-Losses

By
TI Partners
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0

When placing a stop loss in trading, there are several key factors to keep in mind to minimize risk and enhance your strategy. Here are some important considerations:

  1. Risk Tolerance

Evaluate your risk appetite for each trade. This will guide your decision on where to place your stop loss. Typically, a trader will use the percentage from their general capital (e.g., 1-2%). Your stop loss needs to be located at a level that aligns together with your risk tolerance.

  1. Position Size

Align your stop loss with the position size. A wider stop loss allows for more market flexibility but requires a smaller lot size to manage risk. Conversely, a tighter stop loss lets you take a larger position while maintaining the same risk level.

  1. Volatility

Consider the volatility of the asset you are trading. For highly volatile assets, such as indices and XAUUSD, a tight stop loss may cause your trade to close prematurely. In such cases, use a wider stop loss or a trailing stop to give the market room to move. For low-volatility markets, a tighter stop loss can help limit losses.

  1. Support and Resistance Levels

Use technical analysis to identify key support or resistance levels. For buy positions, place a stop loss just below a significant support level. For the sell position, place the stop loss slightly above a significant resistance area, as prices may test this area before declining.

As an additional tool, use the ATR (Average True Range) indicator to refine your stop loss placement. Set your stop loss 1 ATR above resistance or below support. For more volatile assets, consider increasing this to 2 ATR to account for larger price swings.

  1. Time Frame of the Trade

Match your stop loss to the trade’s timeframe. For day or intraday traders, tighter stop losses can limit small losses on shorter timeframes. Swing traders or long-term investors may need to set their stop losses further away to accommodate larger price swings.

  1. Risk-to-Reward Ratio

Aim for a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Avoid ratios like 1:1, as they typically aren’t worthwhile even with a high win rate. Instead, aim for at least 1:2 or 1:3, which can reduce the need for frequent trading while supporting long-term profitability.

  1. News Event

Be aware of upcoming economic data releases or significant news events. If you open a position before such events, consider using a wider stop loss to account for heightened market volatility. To find out when economic data will be released, traders can use the economic calendar.

  1. Type of Stop Loss
  • Fixed Stop Loss is set at a specific price and doesn’t change. It is based on a fixed number of pips, points, or percentages.
  • Trailing Stop Loss adjusts automatically as the market moves in your favor, maintaining a fixed distance from the current price. This option can help lock in profits as the market trends in your favor.

By considering all those factors, you can set stop-loss orders that align with your strategy, improve risk management, and enhance your chances of success in the market.

The Evolution of Africa’s Nine Startup Unicorns: A Timeline of Success

By
Ojukwu Emmanuel
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0

Over the past few years, Africa has witnessed remarkable growth in its fintech ecosystem, giving rise to a select group of billion-dollar startups known as unicorns.

By leveraging technology, these unicorns have provided millions of Africans access to financial services, including payments, savings, and loans, often bypassing traditional banking infrastructure.

Here’s a chronological journey through the continent’s current unicorns, showcasing their milestones and contributions.

1. Interswitch:

Interswitch is a prominent Africa-focused technology and payments company headquartered in Lagos, Nigeria. Founded in 2002 by Mitchell Elegbe, this fintech has played a pivotal role in driving digital payments and financial inclusion across Africa.

Interswitch is best known for its payment processing solutions, including the Verve Card, a widely used payment card in Nigeria, and Quickteller, a digital payment platform for bill payments, airtime purchases, and money transfers.

In November 2019, the Nigerian fintech company, made history as Africa’s first unicorn when Visa invested approximately $200 million, pushing its valuation to $1 billion. Subsequent funding of $110 million in May 2022 reinforced its standing, though the company has kept its valuation under wraps since.

2. Flutterwave:

Founded in 2016, Flutterwave launched to make it easier for Africans to build global businesses that can make and accept any payment, across Africa and around the world.

Flutterwave’s JavaScript API acts as a middle layer that payment service providers and global merchants can integrate with different payment methods and systems, allowing payments to be made by credit card, mobile wallet, and bank accounts in multiple African countries.

The fintech joined the unicorn club in March 2021 after raising $170 million in its Series C round, securing a valuation of over $1 billion. In February 2022, a $250 million Series D tripled its valuation to over $3 billion, making it the highest-valued unicorn on the continent. The company currently processes over 200 million transactions worth billions of dollars.

3. OPay

Opay launched its mobile payment service in Nigeria in December 2018, providing offline and online payment and digital wallet services with the aim of expanding the use of digital financial services in emerging countries and across unbanked populations.

OPay’s products in Nigeria, its largest market, are a bank account for faster online money transfers than traditional banks provide, and a point-of-sale device that enables vendors to accept card payments and offer cash withdrawals to customers. In August 2021, OPay secured $400 million in a Series C funding round led by SoftBank’s Vision Fund 2, achieving a $2 billion valuation.

4. Wave

Founded in 2018, Wave is a leading mobile money service, launched first in Senegal and now also active in Côte d’Ivoire. The fintech company launched with the goal of giving everyone in Africa access to digital financial services.

Wave made history in 2021 by becoming the first unicorn from Francophone Africa following a $200 million Series A funding round. The startup, which operates in Senegal, Uganda, Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, and The Gambia, has quickly gained market traction.

The fintech innovative pricing strategy, charging just 1% of the transaction value, has significantly disrupted the market where Senegalese residents previously faced fees as high as 10% for similar transactions. This competitive pricing model has enabled Wave to rapidly expand its user base and establish a strong foothold in the mobile money sector across multiple African countries

5. Andela

Andela is a global talent network that connects companies with vetted software engineers and other technology professionals from emerging markets. Initially launched in Nigeria in 2014, Andela began as a program to train African developers and connect them with global opportunities.

Over the years, the company shifted its model to focus on remote work, expanding its talent pool to professionals worldwide. The company focuses on sustainable careers, connecting technologists with long-term engagements,

On September 29, 2021, Andela became a unicorn after its $200 million Series E funding, valuing the company at $1.5 billion. The company attracted support from some notable investors like Carmelo Anthony, Steve Case, Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, Softbank, Google Ventures, Serena Ventures, and Generation Investment Management.

6. Chipper Cash

Chipper Cash is a financial technology company that offers a mobile-based, cross-border money transfer platform. Founded in 2018 by Ham Serunjogi and Maijid Moujaled, Chipper Cash enables users to send and receive money across multiple African countries and beyond, without paying traditional transfer fees.

The fintech company achieved unicorn status with a $150 million Series C extension in November 2021, reaching a valuation of slightly over $2 billion.

7. MNT-Halan

MNT-Halan is a prominent fintech company based in Egypt, recognized for its innovative approach to financial inclusion and digital lending. It provides unbanked and underbanked individuals and small businesses access to credit, payment solutions, and e-commerce services through a mobile app.

In January 2023, MNT-Halan announced a $260 million funding round, achieving a valuation of about $1 billion. By July 2024, its valuation had grown to over $1 billion, solidifying its unicorn status.

8. Moniepoint

Moniepoint is a Nigerian fintech company that provides an all-in-one payments, banking, and operations platform for businesses and individuals. Founded in 2015 by Tosin Eniolorunda and Felix Ike, the company has grown to become a significant player in Africa’s financial technology sector.

Moniepoint became a unicorn in October 2024 with its $60 million Series C, valuing the company at over $1 billion. The company’s deliberate growth strategy saw incremental funding rounds dating back to 2019.

As of 2024, Moniepoint serves over 10 million business and individual accounts, processing more than 26 million payments daily, with a total payment volume exceeding $17 billion monthly

9. TymeBank

TymeBank is a South African digital bank that operates without physical branches, offering services through its mobile app, online platform, and partnerships with retail chains like Pick n Pay and Boxer. Founded in 2015, the Neobank aims to provide accessible banking solutions, particularly targeting lower-income markets.

In December 2024, TymeBank closed a $250 million Series D round in December 2024, pushing its valuation to $1.5 billion. The bank has grown steadily, culminating in its unicorn status after multiple funding milestones.

The Big Picture

Collectively, Africa’s nine unicorns have raised over $3 billion in equity since 2019, contributing to a combined valuation of over $16 billion. These companies represent the strength and potential of Africa’s startup ecosystem, accounting for a significant portion of the $13 billion raised by African startups in the same period.

As these unicorns continue to grow and inspire, they underline Africa’s capacity for innovation and its increasing prominence on the global stage.

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