Prediction markets have officially entered “Uptober” overdrive, clocking in over $2 billion in trading volume for the week ending October 20, 2025—a new all-time high that eclipses even the frenzied peaks of the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
This surge reflects booming interest in event-based betting on everything from NFL games to New York City mayoral races, fueled by a friendlier U.S. regulatory landscape and massive funding injections into key platforms.
For the first time, sports betting outpaced politics, with $414.7 million in volume compared to $322.6 million on political outcomes. Platforms like Kalshi have leaned hard into NFL and college football markets, capturing over 70% of their activity from sports alone.
With November midterms looming, bets on outcomes like government shutdowns 65% chance on Polymarket and gubernatorial races are spiking. NYC’s mayoral election has been a particular hotspot, driving “frenzy-level” activity.
The CFTC’s recent “no-action” relief and Polymarket’s U.S. relaunch beta app live as of early October have unlocked American users, boosting accessibility without full KYC for non-U.S. traders.
This comes after Kalshi became the first federally regulated prediction market in the U.S. Polymarket has clawed back the top spot after trailing Kalshi for eight weeks, but the duo is neck-and-neck in a high-stakes rivalry. Smaller players like Limitless and Myriad are scaling fast, hinting at broader ecosystem growth.
The sector’s not just hot—it’s venture-backed rocket fuel. A Certuity report projects $95.5B in total volume by 2035 (46.8% CAGR), driven by institutional adoption and tools like AI-powered analysis (e.g., Polyfactual on Polymarket).
Polymarket’s rumored native token launch 15% chance in 2025 per its own markets could spark airdrop farming frenzy, with users already grinding for $1K+ rewards. Traders are calling it “Wall Street on steroids” and a shift from token speculation to outcome forecasting.
“Betting on outcomes might end up bigger than betting on tokens.” Risks like manipulation linger (e.g., past oracle disputes), but blockchain transparency and 95% accuracy rates make it more reliable than traditional polls.
The record-breaking $2B weekly volume in prediction markets signals a seismic shift in how people engage with event-based betting and information aggregation. With sports outpacing politics and platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi hitting billion-dollar valuations, prediction markets are moving beyond niche crypto circles into mainstream finance.
The $95.5B projected volume by 2035 46.8% CAGR suggests a growing asset class, rivaling traditional derivatives in niche sectors. Massive investments indicate Wall Street’s bet on prediction markets as a new frontier for hedging and speculation. This could draw in hedge funds and retail investors alike, boosting liquidity but also volatility.
Rumors of Polymarket’s native token and Myriad’s $MYR airdrop are fueling user growth through gamified rewards. This could spark a speculative bubble, with users farming points for potential payouts, but also risks market saturation if token launches underdeliver.
With 95% accuracy in forecasting outcomes surpassing polls, prediction markets are becoming a go-to for real-time sentiment on elections, policy, and cultural events. This could challenge traditional media and polling industries, especially as platforms like Polymarket predict events like government shutdowns with precision.
High-stakes betting on midterms and local races (e.g., NYC mayoral) could amplify public focus on niche outcomes, potentially swaying voter behavior. However, risks of manipulation or oracle disputes could invite regulatory pushback, especially if markets are seen as influencing elections.
The CFTC’s softened stance and Kalshi’s federal approval signal a friendlier U.S. environment, but evolving rules could either unlock further growth or impose stricter KYC/AML requirements, impacting accessibility.
On-chain transparency via Polygon for Polymarket, Myriad, etc. ensures trust and auditability, but scalability and gas fee spikes during high-volume events could strain user experience. AI tools like Polyfactual hint at tech-driven analysis becoming a competitive edge.
Past oracle disputes highlight vulnerabilities in decentralized platforms. As volumes grow, bad actors could exploit low-liquidity markets, undermining trust. Airdrop farming and speculative frenzy could lead to user fatigue if rewards disappoint or platforms fail to sustain engagement post-election cycles.
While non-U.S. users face fewer KYC hurdles, regulatory fragmentation could create a two-tier system, limiting global participation. Expect volume spikes as bets on congressional races and policy outcomes (e.g., shutdown odds) intensify. Polymarket and Kalshi will likely dominate, but Limitless and Myriad could steal share with innovative features.
AI and blockchain advancements will likely deepen market efficiency, but platforms must balance user-friendliness with sophistication to retain retail traders. Prediction markets are no longer just a crypto experiment—they’re a cultural and financial juggernaut.
