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US Trade Tariff and How Nigeria Can Move From 14% To 0%

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We continue to wish that the US and China will find how both will operate in this 21st century since they are the REAL countries while others are just voting Present. But besides the mercantilist framework of physical goods, positing that trade must deliver profitable balances, even at the flavour of protectionism, let me add the other “goods”.

Yes, when you add services and software, America wins the world and runs a huge “trade” surplus with every country on earth. Of course, those other “goods” are not cleared at the typical ports, and may not enter some dossiers of nations since they pass via IP addresses of computers, and banks’ digital wallets. In other words, from banking services to digital products which include Google ads, Apple Store, ChatGPT subscriptions, etc does any country come close to the modern “tariff” with US?

When this tariff conversation began, I asked the Nigeria’s trade czar to prepare a small table which shows two things: the physical trade goods surplus Nigeria enjoys over US (US imports crude oil and African foods from Nigeria while we rarely import much from the country) and Services/software (Nigeria has a huge trade deficit there, from Netflix to Microsoft to correspondence banking services). When those are taken together,  President Trump will see that Nigeria is running a trade deficit against the US. And can make our tariff “0%” lol.

In other words, America leads on trade when you combine the traditional and modern trades, and President Trump should include everything in his calculation. Using only the physical goods may not capture much, since those Adam Smith postulations were promulgated well before the invention and scaling of the Internet, and they need to be upgraded.

In summary: If Country A imports physical goods worth $10m  from the US,  and US imports physical goods worth $30m from Country A (usually raw materials), Country A has a trade surplus of $20m. But look deeper, on services, banking and software, Country A is importing things valued at $50m from US, when US records zero from Country A. If we include everything, you can even notice that the US is the one with a comprehensive trade surplus when you include all “ports”, beyond air, land and sea, to include “internet ports”.

Take a look at the ranking of mobile apps and their downloads, the US is top in all categories. So, Nigeria’s trade czar must update its playbook when he/she visits Washington DC to negotiate for the nation. I am confident that the US will understand this point and remove the extra 14% for us because Naira needs space to breathe!

Comment on Feed

Comment 1: Ndubuisi Ekekwe which economical and statistical tools can fairly measure total trade balance in an unbiased way for all trade partners to agree on? Maybe it is already done and should be the basis of trade negotiation

My Response: “which economical and statistical tools can fairly measure total trade balance in an unbiased way” – I will not blame the tools; the issue is the data fed into the tools. Lesotho has a GDP of $2.2b but owns banks which have corresponding banks with New York, use Microsoft software, watch Netflix, use apps stores, etc. It has a trade surplus with the US because it exports jeans but imports minimal physical goods. Check its central bank on what it pays for software, etc, you will see that it is on deficit if ALL goods are included.  The challenge is that people are still feeding tariff data using Adam Smith mercantilism and theory of physical comparative advantages which were purely built on atoms, with no bits and bytes.

Comment 2: Adam Smith’s postulations have since been improved by the Keynesians, New Keynesians, and neoclassical economists to incorporate modern-day technological progress. And ways to measure intangible services over the Internet have been designed as well, in terms of taxation and open economies. But since some of the big companies normally register their businesses in some of the countries they operate in, this changes the game. For instance, Meta in Ireland is seen as a European company by virtue of its incorporation in the EU.

My Response: I am not sure about that. All banks in Nigeria have correspondent banks in New York. Also, it is not the problem of Nigeria if Microsoft US wants to collect money via a shell in Ireland when we know that Ireland did not create Microsoft. As a Central Bank making that trade reconciliation payment, I will ask Microsoft to create your US bucket for me to pay; otherwise, we will not pay you. That you’re using Ireland as a wallet does not mean Microsoft is no more American.  If a vessel leaving Nigeria with crude refuels in Belize before arriving US, would that not still be Nigerian crude?

ChatGPT Becomes World’s Most Downloaded App, Surpassing Instagram and TikTok in March

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In a major shift that underlines the rising mainstream appeal of artificial intelligence tools, ChatGPT has overtaken Instagram and TikTok to become the most downloaded non-gaming app globally in March, according to new data from Appfigures.

The chatbot app hit 46 million new installs during the month, marking its largest monthly growth since launch and a 28% jump over February figures.

The surge in downloads pushes ChatGPT ahead of usual top contenders Instagram and TikTok, which took the No. 2 and No. 3 spots respectively. It also underscores how AI, and OpenAI in particular, is no longer just a tech buzzword but a consumer mainstay.

While the March spike coincided with upgrades to ChatGPT’s image generation tools and loosened content moderation rules, updates that helped the app go viral thanks to its Ghibli-style meme-making capabilities, Appfigures believes the growth was more about brand dominance than product changes.

“It’s starting to feel like ChatGPT is becoming a verb, a lot like how Google did in the 2000s,” said Appfigures founder and CEO Ariel Michaeli. He pointed out that even conversations around other AI chatbots like Grok or Claude ultimately drive users to ChatGPT because of its name recognition.

That association has helped solidify ChatGPT’s position in popular culture, with many casual users now referring to “ChatGPT” when they mean AI in general — a branding feat that even tech giants struggle to match.

Why This Matters

ChatGPT’s rise to the top of the app charts is about more than numbers. It suggests that OpenAI has successfully bridged the gap between experimental AI and widespread utility. This latest milestone coincides with the growing integration of AI tools across industries, including education, customer service, coding, and content creation.

The app’s massive year-over-year growth, 148% compared to Q1 2021, also puts it in a different league from other AI tools trying to break into the market. While rivals like Anthropic’s Claude have struggled with traction, and DeepSeek or Manus AI remain largely niche, ChatGPT’s dominance shows no signs of slowing.

Even Elon Musk’s Grok, which benefits from his celebrity status and the X platform for distribution, may face an uphill battle. Appfigures noted that the problem for new entrants isn’t necessarily a lack of quality — it’s that users looking for AI just download ChatGPT by default.

Instagram, TikTok Knocked Down — For Now

Instagram, which had held the No. 2 position on the App Store and Google Play in both January and February, fell behind ChatGPT in March. TikTok, usually the top dog, dropped to third place — a shift that reflects changing consumer interest amid regulatory concerns.

TikTok’s earlier download bump this year was driven in part by fears of a U.S. ban. While that threat has eased, with President Trump now reportedly seeking a deal with China to keep the app accessible to American users, uncertainty remains. Instagram, meanwhile, has maintained strong popularity, especially among U.S. teens.

A new survey by Piper Sandler showed Instagram as the most-used social app among American teens, with 87% monthly usage. TikTok followed with 79%, and Snapchat with 72%.

Other social apps continued to hold spots in the global top ten in March, including Facebook, WhatsApp, Telegram, Threads, and CapCut. The top 10 collectively pulled in 339 million downloads, a notable jump from February’s 299 million.

End of the Road for GPT-4 in ChatGPT

As ChatGPT enjoys a record-breaking month, OpenAI is also preparing to retire the GPT-4 model from the app by April 30, replacing it entirely with GPT-4o, the newer model now set as the default.

GPT-4o has been praised by OpenAI for its improved performance in writing, coding, STEM tasks, and conversational flow. The company says it outperforms GPT-4 in head-to-head evaluations and better follows instructions.

Originally launched in March 2023, GPT-4 cost more than $100 million to train and introduced multimodal capabilities for image and text understanding. It was later followed by GPT-4 Turbo, and now GPT-4o. While GPT-4 will no longer be available in the ChatGPT app, developers will still be able to access it via OpenAI’s API.

The company is also preparing to roll out more models, including the GPT-4.1 family (featuring GPT-4.1-mini and GPT-4.1-nano) and a new reasoning series called o4-mini. These efforts suggest OpenAI is pushing to scale its capabilities even further while keeping the user experience fast and accessible.

China-U.S. Trade War: Beijing Won’t Devalue Yuan As A Countermeasure – Economists

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As the trade war between the United States and China escalates, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports soaring to 145% and China retaliating with a 125% levy on American goods, Beijing appears to be opting against a seemingly viable countermeasure – devaluing its yuan.

Economists and market analysts believe that while weakening the currency could theoretically offset the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, China’s policymakers are steering clear of this tactic, prioritizing financial stability over short-term trade relief. The decision, rooted in fears of market chaos and capital flight, underscores China’s careful approach as it navigates one of the fiercest economic showdowns in recent history.

The latest punch in the trade war came on Friday, when China’s finance ministry announced the tariff hike from 84% to 125%, a direct response to the White House’s confirmation that U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods had reached 145%, including a 125% base rate and a 20% levy tied to fentanyl concerns. Trump, announcing the base tariff earlier this week via Truth Social, framed it as a necessary move to curb China’s “lack of respect” for global markets, vowing to end its trade dominance. China’s ministry countered, labeling U.S. actions “unilateral bullying” that violates international trade rules, yet signaled restraint by stating it would not match further tariff increases, hinting at alternative strategies.

Amid this tit-for-tat, the yuan’s role has drawn intense interest. Earlier this week, the offshore yuan slumped to a record low of 7.4287 against the dollar, and the onshore yuan hit 7.3509 on Thursday, its weakest since 2007 after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set its midpoint rate at its lowest since 2023. The slide fueled speculation that Beijing might devalue the yuan to make Chinese exports cheaper, offsetting the crushing effect of U.S. tariffs. However, economists overwhelmingly argue that China will not pursue this path, despite its potential as a trade weapon, due to the severe risks it poses to the nation’s already fragile economy.

“RMB devaluation will not be part of China’s retaliation toolkit to U.S. tariffs,” said Joey Chew, HSBC’s head of Asia FX, in an interview with CNBC.

She emphasized that a sharp weakening could erode consumer confidence and trigger capital outflows, a scenario China is desperate to avoid. The memory of 2015 comes flashing when a yuan devaluation led to nearly $700 billion in capital flight, destabilizing markets and shaking global confidence.

“Rapid depreciation is inviting financial crisis on its own,” said Dan Wang, China Director at Eurasia Group, highlighting Beijing’s top concern, which is preventing a repeat of such chaos.

The yuan’s stability is tightly managed by the PBoC, which sets a daily midpoint rate and restricts trading to a 2% band around it, unlike free-floating currencies like the dollar or yen. This control was evident earlier this year when the bank intervened to prop up the yuan against a surging dollar, discouraging speculative bets on its decline.

Among 11 analysts polled by CNBC, most predict only a gradual, orderly depreciation, with Mizuho’s Ken Cheung forecasting a year-end onshore USD/CNY rate of 7.12, the lowest in the group.

“The PBoC is guiding some depreciation via the fixing, but a sharp devaluation is not likely,” Cheung said, suggesting China will allow “two-way FX volatility” to navigate turbulent markets.

Even though devaluation could theoretically cushion the blow of 145% U.S. tariffs by lowering export prices, economists argue it’s a flawed strategy at this scale.

“How can a country depreciate by such a level without triggering financial instability? It will be very difficult,” said Jianwei Xu of Natixis, noting that even a significant drop wouldn’t fully offset tariffs of this magnitude.

Veteran investor David Roche took it further, arguing that a stable yuan forces the U.S. to bear the cost of its tariffs, given China’s role as America’s largest supplier.

“The best way to make the Americans pay is to keep the currency stable,” he told CNBC, suggesting devaluation could inadvertently ease pressure on U.S. consumers.

However, not all analysts dismiss the possibility of a weaker yuan. Jonas Goltermann of Capital Economics warned that prolonged high tariffs could push the USD/CNY rate to 8 by year-end, potentially sooner given recent trade war developments. But he conceded that even this wouldn’t negate the tariffs’ impact, denoting the limited upside of devaluation.

Most agree China’s economy, already stuttering with weak domestic demand and export pressures, can’t afford the risks of a currency slide, especially as it targets 5% growth for 2025.

Instead of devaluation, China is turning to other tools. On Friday, the PBoC reaffirmed a “moderately loose” monetary policy, signaling stimulus measures like infrastructure spending and consumer subsidies to offset trade losses.

“China is more likely to utilize domestic stimulus to project market stability,” said Kamil Dimmich of North of South Capital LLP, who suggested Beijing might repatriate capital from U.S. Treasury holdings to bolster the yuan. Trade diversification is another focus, with China deepening ties with ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America to reduce reliance on the U.S. market.

The trade war’s toll is already staggering. In the U.S., consumers face an estimated $1,900 in added costs per household this year, while exporters like farmers lose access to China’s $143.5 billion market. China risks a 1.5-2% GDP hit, threatening millions of jobs in export hubs.

Globally, markets are in turmoil: the S&P 500 dropped 20% from its peak on Friday, Asian indices faltered, and gold hit near-record highs. The European Union, fearing diverted Chinese goods, is exploring new trade deals, including talks to lift tariffs on Chinese EVs, while Japan and Canada navigate their own U.S. tariff battles.

However, economists agree that while devaluing the yuan remains a viable option on paper, its risks far outweigh its rewards.

Fluorescent Road Markings Trailed in Australia

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Fluorescent or photoluminescent road markings have been trialed in Australia, particularly by a company called Tarmac Linemarking in Victoria. These markings use a special paint that absorbs light during the day and emits a glow at night, improving visibility on roads, especially in low-light or rural areas without street lighting. The idea is to enhance driver safety by making lane lines and road edges clearer in the dark, potentially reducing accidents.

The technology works similarly to glow-in-the-dark materials, like those in kids’ toys or watch hands, using compounds like strontium aluminate to store and release light. Trials have been conducted on stretches of road in Victoria, such as Metung Road, and have shown promise for applications beyond roads, like bike paths, car parks, and boat ramps. It’s a clever use of passive lighting, which means no electricity is needed, making it eco-friendly and cost-effective compared to installing streetlights.

However, there are challenges. Some critics point out that the glow can weaken on overcast days or in heavy rain, and the paint’s durability is a concern—constant exposure to traffic, weather, and UV light might degrade its effectiveness faster than traditional reflective markings with glass beads. Maintenance could be a headache, and scaling it up for widespread use might not be as practical as it sounds. Plus, there’s the cost—while it’s cheaper than streetlights, it’s still pricier than standard road paint.

On the flip side, the concept has sparked a lot of excitement because it tackles a real problem: nighttime driving can be dangerous, especially on unfamiliar or poorly lit roads. If they can nail down the durability and consistency, it could be a game-changer. It’s also worth noting that similar ideas have been tested elsewhere, like in the Netherlands, with mixed results, so it’s not entirely new—but Australia’s approach seems to be gaining traction for its practical applications.

Safety, Environmental and Technical Implications

The glowing markings enhance lane and edge visibility in low-light conditions, potentially reducing accidents, especially on rural or unlit roads where crashes are more common at night. For instance, clearer road guidance could help drivers navigate curves or intersections more safely. Applied to bike paths or pedestrian crossings, these markings could make shared spaces safer after dark, addressing urban safety concerns.

The glow’s effectiveness may diminish in heavy rain, fog, or after overcast days when the paint hasn’t absorbed enough light, potentially limiting reliability compared to traditional reflective markings or active lighting. Unlike streetlights, these markings require no electricity, reducing energy consumption and reliance on fossil fuels, aligning with sustainability goals.

The production of photoluminescent compounds (e.g., strontium aluminate) involves mining and chemical processes, which could have environmental impacts if not managed responsibly. Long-term degradation of the paint might also release microplastics or chemicals into the environment. By avoiding artificial lighting, these markings could minimize disruption to nocturnal wildlife and preserve natural nightscapes, a growing concern in eco-conscious regions.

Installing and maintaining streetlights is expensive, especially in remote areas. Fluorescent markings offer a cheaper alternative for improving road safety without ongoing energy costs. The specialized paint is likely pricier than standard road paint, which could strain budgets for widespread adoption, particularly for cash-strapped municipalities.

If the paint wears out faster than conventional markings due to traffic or UV exposure, frequent repainting could offset initial savings, impacting long-term cost-effectiveness. Success here could spur further advancements in smart road technologies, like integrating glow-in-the-dark materials with sensors or self-healing coatings, pushing the boundaries of infrastructure design.

The technology’s effectiveness at scale—across diverse climates, traffic volumes, and road types—remains unproven. Lessons from similar trials e.g., the Netherlands’ failed glow-in-the-dark road project suggest technical hurdles in durability and consistency. These markings could pair well with autonomous vehicle tech, providing visual cues for cameras and sensors in low-light conditions, though they’d need to meet strict standards for machine readability.

Drivers and communities might embrace the novelty and safety benefits, but skepticism about reliability or unfamiliarity could slow acceptance. Education campaigns would be needed to build trust. Road authorities, like those in Australia, have strict standards for markings (e.g., retroreflectivity under headlights). Fluorescent paint must meet or exceed these to gain approval, which could delay rollout.

If adopted primarily in wealthier areas due to costs, it could exacerbate disparities in road safety between urban and rural or affluent and low-income regions. This innovation reflects a global push for safer, smarter infrastructure amid rising road fatalities—Australia alone sees about 1,200 road deaths annually, many at night. It also ties into trends like sustainable urban planning and passive technologies. However, competing solutions, like solar-powered LED road studs or advanced reflective paints, might challenge its niche.

RCO Finance’s Token Presale Outpaces Early Solana and Avalanche by a Wide Margin

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Solana (SOL) briefly dropped below $100 during the market crash on Black Monday, and Avalanche (AVAX) saw significant declines as well. While both altcoins are on a recovery path, traders are investing in RCO Finance (RCOF) in anticipation of outsized gains in 2025.

RCO Finance has been successful during its ongoing token presale, attracting over $13 million from smart money and retail traders. At only $0.1, the undervalued altcoin is tipped to be the biggest performer when the bulls take control of the market.

Solana and Avalanche Recover After Major Losses

Solana (SOL) dropped below $100 for the first time in a year as altcoins tumbled due to President Donald Trump’s fears. Avalanche joined Solana in the bloodbath, tumbling to less than $15 in a brutal ‘Black Monday’ sell-off.

However, Solana has since recovered to $108.50, marking an 11% growth in 24 hours., Avalanche is up 14% in the same period, offering a reprieve to holders.

Analysts are closely watching the tariff war and how it will impact the crypto market going forward. Solana has a history of bouncing back spectacularly, with analysts noting its quick recovery after the FTX fall in late 2022.

RCO Finance’s Token Presale Set to Benefit Early Investors

The recent Black Monday has left investors with no choice but to flock to RCO Finance for a potential 50,000% gain in 2025. At only $0.1, RCOF is undervalued, offering an attractive entry point for early investors.

Its token presale has raised over $13 million. Analysts say early investors will earn huge profits when the project is listed on exchanges.

RCO Finance stands out from the competition because of its groundbreaking features, including the flagship Robo Advisor. The cutting-edge tool uses machine learning algorithms to offer personalized investment and trading recommendations tailored to individual financial goals.

The Robo Advisor tool also scans reputable news sources to adjust asset allocations in real-time, helping traders conquer the volatile crypto market.

The platform’s users would have been shielded from the recent losses that tanked the majority of altcoins, including Solana and Avalanche.

Apart from minimizing losses, RCO Finance’s users would have been recommended to invest in Snow Leopard (SNL) before it surged over 3,000% in 24 hours.

In addition, RCO Finance is already in beta testing for its platform, and the response has been overwhelming. The beta platform has attracted over 10,000 users. The development team is fine-tuning the beta platform and the Robo Advisor ahead of the alpha version release.

RCO Finance is also introducing a debit card to enable users to spend their crypto assets in the real world. This is a major step toward crypto adoption.

Furthermore, one of the most appealing aspects of RCO Finance is its KYC-free financial ecosystem. This promotes privacy and anonymity.

The project has attracted investors during its ongoing token presale because it offers users access to over 120,000 assets, allowing them to diversify their portfolios.

Security Audit Appeals to Investors

SolidProof, a trusted name in blockchain security, has vigorously audited RCO Finance’s smart contracts. This thorough audit guarantees that RCO Finance’s code is free from vulnerabilities.

The clean audit has helped the project cement its commitment to security. It has also given investors peace of mind.

Join RCOF’s Token Presale to Create Generational Wealth

At only $0.1, RCOF is tipped to be the altcoin to invest in. Analysts are predicting a 50,000% surge in Q2.

After rolling out its beta platform and attracting over 10,000 users, RCO Finance is on course to help traders earn consistent profits in the crypto market. The beta platform and the Robo Advisor tool are already undergoing further enhancements.

With a high leverage of up to 1,000X, RCO Finance is the perfect choice for new and experienced traders.

Invest in RCOF’s token presale to grow $1K into $500K in Q2 2025.

 

For more information about the RCO Finance Presale:

Visit RCO Finance Presale

Join the RCO Finance Community