The World Bank projects that the country’s public debt will fall below 40 percent of GDP for the first time in more than a decade.

The development marks a notable shift for Africa’s fourth-largest economy, which has faced years of fiscal strain driven by weak oil revenues, heavy borrowing, and high cost of governance.

The projection, contained in the World Bank’s October 2025 Nigeria Development Update (NDU) titled “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home,” attributes the improvement to steady economic growth, stronger fiscal management, and a raft of structural reforms aimed at stabilizing public finances.

According to the NDU, Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.9 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2025—up from 3.5 percent during the same period in 2024—driven largely by gains in services, agriculture, and non-oil industries.

The World Bank forecasts that growth will rise modestly from 4.2 percent in 2025 to 4.4 percent in 2027, buoyed by private-sector recovery, improved power supply, and gradual reforms in the oil and gas sector. The country’s foreign reserves have also risen above $42 billion, while its current account surplus now stands at 6.1 percent of GDP—figures boosted by non-oil exports and reduced reliance on imported petroleum products.

On the fiscal side, despite lower crude prices, Nigeria’s federal deficit is projected at 2.6 percent of GDP in 2025—broadly unchanged from 2024. More importantly, public debt is expected to decline from 42.9 percent to 39.8 percent of GDP, marking the first drop in over ten years.

However, the development—though welcomed by the government—has drawn cautious reactions from economists, who warn that Nigeria’s renewed appetite for external borrowing could quickly reverse these gains. On Tuesday, President Bola Tinubu wrote to the House of Representatives seeking approval to raise $2.347 billion from the international capital market to fund part of the 2025 budget deficit and refinance Nigeria’s maturing Eurobonds.

The president also requested approval for the issuance of a $500 million debut sovereign Sukuk bond to fund critical infrastructure projects across the country. The new borrowing plan comes despite the administration’s earlier claims that removing fuel subsidies would increase revenue, reduce borrowing, and free up funds for capital projects.

Economists say the move signals a troubling return to the country’s old borrowing pattern that had driven its debt-service burden to unsustainable levels before the current reform efforts. Nigeria’s debt-service-to-revenue ratio peaked at nearly 98 percent in 2022, forcing the government to rely on overdrafts from the Central Bank and external loans to meet obligations.

There is concern that while the headline debt-to-GDP ratio looks good, the real issue is the government’s rising debt-service costs, which crowd out capital spending and social programs. If this trend continues, Nigeria risks slipping back into the same debt-servicing trap it’s trying to escape.

The World Bank’s Senior Economist for Nigeria, Samer Matta, echoed similar caution, warning that inflation remains “the biggest tax on the poor.” Although inflation is projected to ease gradually under the Central Bank’s tight monetary stance, food prices continue to climb, with poor households spending up to 70 percent of their income on food.

World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, praised the government’s reform efforts but stressed that “macroeconomic stability alone is not enough.” He said the true test of success would be whether Nigerians begin to feel tangible relief in their daily lives, especially the poor and vulnerable.

According to the NDU, food inflation has become one of the gravest challenges to household welfare. Between 2019 and 2024, the cost of a basic food basket rose fivefold, eroding purchasing power and deepening poverty levels even amid improving fiscal metrics. The report urges the government to sustain reforms that promote inclusive growth, strengthen public services, and protect the most vulnerable.

In its May 2025 edition, the World Bank had projected that Nigeria’s inflation would average 22.1 percent for the year, as the Central Bank’s monetary tightening begins to anchor expectations and restore investor confidence. But analysts insist that without fiscal restraint and revenue diversification, Nigeria’s recovery may be short-lived.

The Nigeria Development Update remains one of the World Bank’s flagship publications, offering biannual assessments of the country’s macroeconomic landscape and reform progress. While the current edition strikes an optimistic tone, it underscores a growing concern among experts that Nigeria’s road to sustainable recovery will depend less on projections and more on sound economic policies and the government’s ability to kill its ferocious debt appetite.

Anthropic, the artificial intelligence company backed by Google’s Alphabet and Amazon, has announced plans to open its first office in India next year — a move that underscores how the South Asian nation has become the new frontier for American AI companies seeking global growth.

The new office, set to open in early 2026 in Bengaluru, will serve as Anthropic’s second Asia-Pacific hub after Tokyo. The expansion comes amid India’s accelerating adoption of AI technologies and China’s AI policies, which have seen the government tighten control over data and restrict access to Western AI platforms.

Co-founder and CEO Dario Amodei is scheduled to visit India this week to meet with public officials and corporate partners, signaling Anthropic’s intent to deepen local partnerships and strengthen its foothold in the region. The company, valued at about $183 billion, said the Indian office will serve as a base for research, enterprise collaboration, and product localization.

As China doubles down on government-backed AI infrastructure — promoting its own models like Baidu’s Ernie Bot and Tencent’s Hunyuan, while effectively cutting off access to American AI systems such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Anthropic’s Claude, and Google’s Gemini — global tech companies have turned to India as their preferred expansion ground.

India, now home to nearly one billion internet users, offers an open digital market with democratic regulation, a young, tech-savvy population, and a thriving startup culture. These conditions have made it an ideal destination for U.S. firms navigating geopolitical tension between Washington and Beijing.

Anthropic’s flagship product, Claude, has emerged as one of the fastest-growing AI assistants in India. The company revealed that India is now its second-largest consumer market, behind only the United States.

Claude’s strong coding and reasoning capabilities have made it especially popular among Indian developers and enterprises deploying AI for customer service, analytics, and software automation. Anthropic offers both free and paid versions of Claude in the market, but has not yet introduced local currency pricing, a move that analysts say could follow once the company establishes its Bengaluru office.

OpenAI, backed by Microsoft, formally registered as a legal entity in India in 2025 and also plans to open its first Indian office in New Delhi later this year. The company has already been in talks with Indian IT firms and educational institutions to integrate ChatGPT Enterprise into their systems, offering affordable subscription rates.

Meanwhile, Google’s Gemini and AI startup Perplexity are aggressively expanding in the Indian market. Both have rolled out free access to premium AI tools, aiming to capture users in a price-sensitive ecosystem while leveraging India’s enormous user base to refine their models.

China’s Walls vs. India’s Openness

This surge of American AI investment in India comes as Washington continues to tighten export restrictions on advanced chips and AI technologies to China, forcing U.S. companies to diversify their global reach. India’s openness to collaboration, paired with its growing digital infrastructure, has made it a strategic partner in the AI supply chain.

China’s government has launched massive efforts to build state-backed AI infrastructure, funding domestic chipmaking and encouraging the use of homegrown language models trained under censorship controls. The country has effectively blocked U.S. AI platforms, including ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, while mandating strict state review of AI content.

India’s rise as a global AI hub is supported by a booming tech workforce exceeding 5 million, robust digital infrastructure, and one of the fastest-growing startup ecosystems in the world. The government’s AI Mission 2030 seeks to position the country as a leader in responsible AI research and deployment, emphasizing collaboration with global firms.

Anthropic’s Global Push

Anthropic’s expansion into India follows its announcement last month to triple its international workforce, as it races to meet global demand for its Claude 3 AI models. The company’s partnerships with both Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud give it access to vast cloud infrastructure, essential for scaling operations in new markets like India.

AWS has integrated Anthropic’s Claude models into its Bedrock AI platform, while Google has made Claude available through Vertex AI, giving enterprise clients flexibility in deploying advanced models. This dual alignment with two major cloud providers could prove critical to Anthropic’s ambitions in India, where cloud adoption is growing across finance, healthcare, and manufacturing.

Anthropic’s Bengaluru office is expected to focus on AI research, enterprise integration, and regional expansion, with hiring to begin in 2025.

The European Commission has unveiled a €1 billion ($1.1 billion) plan aimed at expanding the use of artificial intelligence across critical industries, marking one of the bloc’s boldest efforts yet to close the widening technological gap with the United States and China.

The plan, announced Wednesday in Brussels, forms the core of the EU’s “Apply AI” strategy — an initiative designed to accelerate AI integration across the economy, foster homegrown innovation, and reduce Europe’s dependence on foreign technologies.

The move also reflects Europe’s growing anxiety over its lagging position in the global AI race, as U.S. companies like OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft, and Chinese counterparts such as Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent, dominate AI development, cloud computing, and chip production.

“AI Made in Europe” Vision

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the plan represents a turning point for the continent’s digital future, reiterating her vision for “AI made in Europe.”

“I want the future of AI to be made in Europe,” von der Leyen declared in a statement. “AI adoption needs to be widespread, and with these strategies, we will help speed up the process. We will drive this ‘AI first’ mindset across all our key sectors, from robotics to healthcare, energy, and automotive.”

The Apply AI initiative follows an earlier April 2025 action plan aimed at easing the heavy compliance and cost burdens of the EU’s AI Act, the world’s first comprehensive regulation on artificial intelligence, which came into force in August 2024.

While the AI Act positioned Europe as a global leader in AI governance, critics say it also slowed innovation, with startups warning that strict rules and documentation requirements made it difficult to compete with their U.S. and Chinese peers.

A Push to Catch Up

The new strategy is part of a broader effort by the European Union to reignite its technological competitiveness and stimulate industrial adoption of AI, an area where the bloc has been struggling.

According to data from the European Investment Bank, AI investment in the U.S. outpaces Europe’s by nearly five times, and China now produces the majority of the world’s AI patents. While American firms dominate generative AI and cloud infrastructure, Europe remains fragmented — lacking large-scale computing resources and unified industrial coordination.

To address these gaps, the Apply AI plan focuses on targeted industrial transformation, seeking to integrate AI tools into sectors that anchor Europe’s economy and employ millions of workers.

Target Sectors and Measures

The European Commission identified ten sectors where AI adoption will be accelerated: healthcare, pharmaceuticals, energy, mobility, manufacturing, construction, agri-food, defense, communications, and culture.

Under the plan, Europe will:

• Establish AI-powered medical screening centers to improve healthcare diagnostics and disease detection;
• Develop “agentic AI” systems — autonomous and adaptive models — for manufacturing, climate analysis, and drug development;
• Support AI-driven tools in renewable energy management, aimed at optimizing power grids and reducing emissions;
• Promote AI integration in agriculture and food production to enhance food security and resource efficiency.

The initiative will also connect startups with industry partners and research institutions to ensure that AI breakthroughs move quickly from the lab to real-world deployment.

Funding and Private Sector Role

The €1 billion funding will come primarily from the Horizon Europe and Digital Europe programs. The Commission expects member states and private investors to match the EU’s contribution, potentially doubling the total investment to around €2 billion.

The goal is not only to provide financial backing but also to stimulate private innovation ecosystems that can rival the scale of Silicon Valley or Shenzhen.

The push for AI independence aligns with the EU’s long-standing ambition for “strategic autonomy” — the ability to operate technologically and economically without overreliance on external powers.

In recent years, the bloc has found itself squeezed between the U.S. tech dominance and China’s rapid AI expansion, with both superpowers using AI to project global influence. European policymakers believe that building sovereign AI capabilities is now a matter of economic security as much as innovation.

Trade tensions with the United States — particularly over subsidies, data localization, and cloud computing access — have deepened the EU’s determination to invest in domestic AI infrastructure. At the same time, the bloc is cautious about Chinese AI systems, which raise security and ethical concerns over data privacy and state surveillance.

Europe’s challenge lies in balancing innovation with regulation. While the AI Act has been praised for setting global ethical standards, business leaders warn that overregulation could hinder the region’s ability to compete with the fast-moving ecosystems of the U.S. and China.

The Apply AI plan seeks to counter that perception by pairing strict oversight with tangible economic incentives. Brussels hopes the initiative will help rebuild investor confidence, attract top AI talent, and spur the next generation of European AI startups capable of competing globally.