A few years ago, Iran seized Stena Impero, a British-flagged oil tanker. One British commentator wrote that the Royal Navy had lost its mojo, if not, it would have turned Iran into a desert (when Great was in front of Britain, it would have destroyed the coastal region of Iran).

Years later, Russia went into Ukraine and NATO, led by the US, is helping to protect Ukraine – and possibly will issue a guarantee of Ukraine’s future security, one way or the other when the dust settles.

Right now in West Africa,  Mali and Burkina Faso have jointly told ECOWAS, led by Nigeria (holding the rotating Chairmanship), that if it fights the Niger Republic junta, they will fight to defend the Niger Republic sovereignty. The junta overthrew a democratic president a few days ago. Here, Mail and Burkina Faso are the NGGTO* (North of Gulf of Guinea Treaty Organization), analogous to NATO in Ukraine! 

And the most intriguing part, Russia’s newswire, TASS, posted the video, summarizing: “Burkina Faso and Mali intend to consider any military intervention in Niger as a declaration of war against them” — TASS (video below)

The military leadership of Mali and Burkina Faso warned that any military intervention against Niger would also amount to a declaration of war against the West African nations.

An operation in Niger would have “disastrous consequences” for Niger and risk destabilizing the whole region, government spokesmen for Mali and Burkina Faso said in a joint statement Monday.

People, if you love your nkwobi, amala and zobo in Nigeria, tell your political leaders not to declare war in Niger. It is not necessary because if they do, it means we will have Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso at war at the same time. If that happens, Nigeria is done economically and it can break the nation due to the stress that would come from it. Like the British did on Stena Impero, Nigeria and ECOWAS must dialogue!

??Burkina Faso and Mali intend to consider any military intervention in Niger as a declaration of war against them — TASS

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) July 31, 2023

*I made that up.

Comment on Feed

Comment 1: Another brilliant piece from Prof Ndubuisi Ekekwe .
I will never for once suggest that Nigeria and ECOWAS should go to war in order to remove the occupying forces in Niger republic.
Nigeria is currently battling ferocious internal crises ranging from insecurity, armed banditry and kidnapping to economic issues. We have more than enough to bite as a country already. We cannot afford more of these!
What ECOWAS should do is for it set political agenda with strict deadline for Niger republic through mutual negotiation with military occupiers. This agenda must include timelines to organize national elections and hand over to a democratically elected government and the exit of the military junta from political scene.
What we want in Africa right now is peace and stability; politically and economically.

Comment 2: When WW2 started in Europe on September 1, 1939, America stayed away from it as many analysts believed it should not enter the war but face it’s internal issues (the Great Depression was 10 years earlier). However, when Japan dropped over a thousand bombs on Pearl Harbor, America knew that problems were at its doorstep.

This challenge from NGGTO* is a litmus test for Nigeria to live up to its bidding as the giant of Africa. It’s the opportunity to call the bluff of Wagner’s ragtag group and project our image as Big Brother Africa.

It’s terrible optics if Nigeria backs down from these military boys; Togo, Ghana, Cameroon, Senegal etc, might follow. We must use Niger as the scapegoat and use all means to stop the military junta.

If ECOWAS backs down, the consequence in 10 years will make all of us wished they hadn’t given in to these Wagner puppets. It’s also an opportunity for Nigeria to improve its internal policing and intelligence capacity. Niger is the opportunity to ensure we quel a private army standing up to Aftica using some puppets.

Nigeria must ensure the Niger coup fails.

To the Nigeria president, well-meaning Pan-Africans are behind you in ensuring the coup in Niger fails.

Comment 2C: I completely agree with your views. After all diplomatic means have been exhausted, there will be no other option. Nigeria must rise up to the challenge and we must understand that there is price to pay if we hope to remain the giant of Africa. I have heard different views as to whether democracy is working in Africa, my opinion for the sake of Africa and Africans, democratically led government remains the best form of government and we must do all that is possible to keep it while we redesign it (where necessary) to fit more into a working system for Africa and the individual countries in the continent.

My Response: Great comment except that I am not sure ECOWAS will win any war in Niger even though it can win the battle. So, you can get in, take the junta out but for 20 years, you have insurgency in 3 countries. These countries have wars at home via BK, inflation, etc.

Comment 3: If we fail to learn from history. It is most likely to repeat itself.

As much as most have called for non-Military intervention against the rising regional conflict probably backed by big nations. It is also very important that Nigeria doesn’t play the diplomacy with too much weakness. Our Military is watching. Military might is contagious across nations and what happened in Niger backed by Mail and BK, might raise interest back home. I mean. May what happened to MKO not happen to Bola. Because Nigeria is facing an economic civil war right now and it should not translate to more uglier things. Wisdom to the wise the scripture says. Wisdom is needed to navigate this delicate situations. Meanwhile BRICS summit is coming up by end of August, am I sensing something fishing? China & Russia? I also don’t trust the NATO alliance. Wisdom to our Leaders. Amen.

Comment 4: It is a great tragedy that Africans are even contemplating going to war with other Africans. It appears we have learned nothing. We continue to allow our real enemies to manipulate us for THEIR interests and not ours. Imagine if Africans actually spent time, energy, and precious resources building a Confederation of United African States. We could defend our continent and African sovereignty. There would be no need for our people to fight and we could dislodge the oppressors from Africans lands UNLESS they agreed to a much more Afrocentric approach to trade based on equality.

The Federal Government of Nigeria is running against time to avert a nationwide strike, due to commence on Wednesday by organized labor unions.

The recent strike threat was issued last week by the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC) as a way of getting the government to act fast to ameliorate the economic impact of its recent policies – the removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the FX market.

The President Bola Tinubu-led administration, in the wake of these policies, promised to roll out a range of palliative measures to mitigate their effect. The measures include the World Bank-backed cash transfer to poor Nigerian households and releasing of grains to boost food security.

But the palliative measures have been deemed significantly insufficient, bolstering the belief that the government is insensitive to the plights of Nigerians – instigating the current faceoff between the government and labor unions.

The removal of fuel subsidy and the deregulation of the forex market saw the price of fuel shoot up to N617 from N195 per liter and the naira exchange at around N800/$1 from N464/$1 at Investor & Export window. This means an unprecedented increase in the cost of goods and services – overwhelming the meager spending power of Nigerians.

Following the threat of a nationwide strike, and the backlash that followed an earlier announcement by the government to disburse N8,000 to 12 million Nigerian households, the federal government appears to have amended the palliative measures.

In his national address on July 31, Tinubu outlined 8 key palliative measures his administration is rolling out to cushion the adverse effects of the FX and subsidy reforms. They are the following:

Reducing the high cost of food: Tinubu said that to ensure food remains affordable, the government will release 2000 metric tons of grains from strategic reserves to households across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Furthermore, 225,000 metric tons of fertilizer, seedlings, and other inputs will be provided to farmers committed to the nation’s food security agenda.

Boosting agriculture with N200 billion: The president said agricultural development will be supported with the disbursement of N200 billion to cultivate 500,000 hectares of farmland. This program will focus on cultivating rice, maize, wheat, and cassava, benefiting small farmers as well as large-scale private sector players in the agricultural industry.

Minimum wage: He added that by collaborating with labor unions, the government is working to introduce a new national minimum wage for workers. The salary review will be implemented once agreed upon and budget provisions are made.

N125 billion for MSMEs: President Tinubu said the federal government will commit N125 billion in funding to support Micro, Small, and Medium-Sized Enterprises (MSMEs). From this fund, N50 billion will be dedicated to providing grants to 1 million nano businesses by March 2024. Each of the 774 local governments in Nigeria will receive a minimum grant of N50,000, benefiting a total of 1,300 nano business owners in each area.

N100 billion for mass transit: Additionally, the government will invest N100 billion to purchase 3000 units of 20-seater Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) fuel buses. These buses will be distributed to major transportation companies in states based on travel intensity. Participating transport companies can access credit with a maximum interest rate of 9% and a repayment period of 60 months.

9 percent interest loan for SMEs and Startups: Tinubu said 100,000 SMEs and startups will receive support through a scheme with a budget of N75 billion. Entrepreneurs can access loans ranging from N500,000 to N1 million at a maximum interest rate of 9% per annum, with a repayment period of 36 months.

Student loans: According to the president, the federal government plans to push over N1 trillion saved from fuel subsidy payments into providing student loans for higher education, ensuring that no Nigerian student has to abandon their studies due to financial constraints.

Infrastructure fund for states: To improve living conditions and address critical areas, a new infrastructure fund will be available to states. The fund will be utilized for healthcare and educational infrastructure upgrades, as well as to improve transportation routes for the transportation of farm produce to markets.

Which do Nigerians need more?

Among the many demands made by labor unions, wage increase has stood out, drawing overwhelming support from Nigerians who believe it will go a long way to boost their spending power, and in turn, help the informal sector to stay afloat. In addition, it is believed that other palliative measures like grain distribution and the CNG-powered mass transit initiative can only reach a limited number of people and the agriculture scheme will not yield immediate result.

Compared to other countries where petrol sells above N500 per liter, Nigeria has one of the poorest minimum wages.

The TUC had demanded N200,000 monthly minimum wage, but many doubt if it would be possible considering how broke Nigeria currently is. Some analysts believe that a significant increase from the current N30,000 monthly salary is achievable based on revenue boost from the removal of fuel subsidy. FAAC (federation account allocation committee) allocations to the federal, state, and local governments are expected to jump following the removal of fuel subsidy.