Shale oil executives are warning that President Donald Trump’s policies are undermining investment in the U.S. oil patch, deepening uncertainty over the future of an industry that only a few years ago turned the country into the world’s largest crude producer.

Their anonymous comments were captured in the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ quarterly survey of oil and gas companies, released this week, and reported by CNBC. The survey polled 139 firms across Texas, northern Louisiana, and southern New Mexico, regions that together form the backbone of America’s shale industry.

Trump has long cast himself as a champion of fossil fuels, frequently attacking the renewable energy industry. His One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law in July, delivered a sweeping package of tax breaks, regulatory relief, and subsidies that oil lobbyists had sought for years. But executives say his simultaneous push for lower crude prices, higher tariffs, and sudden, unpredictable policy shifts is destabilizing the sector.

“Twilight of shale”

Nearly 80% of respondents told the Dallas Fed they have delayed investment decisions because of heightened uncertainty over the future price of oil and rising production costs.

“We have begun the twilight of shale,” one executive said, pointing to layoffs numbering in the thousands and consolidation under giants such as Exxon Mobil. “The writing is on the wall.”

Another was even blunter: “Drilling is going to disappear,” the person said, citing Trump’s target of $40 per barrel crude oil while steel tariffs simultaneously drive up input costs. At $65 per barrel—just above most producers’ breakeven level—companies are already struggling to sustain drilling.

Industry squeezed from both sides

Executives described a sector battered by politics from both ends of Washington. “The shale industry has been gutted over the course of the Biden and Trump administrations,” one respondent said.

Political hostility from President Joe Biden chased away capital, while what they called “economic ignorance” from Trump is now “finishing the job.”

“The U.S. shale business is broken,” the executive added.

Several also accused Trump of tacitly siding with OPEC+, whose decision to increase supply has further depressed global oil prices.

“The administration has effectively aligned itself with OPEC+, kneecapping U.S. producers in the process,” one manager said.

“Guided by a Department of Energy that tells them what they want to hear instead of hard facts, they operate with little understanding of shale economics,” another added.

White House defends record output

The Trump administration rejects the criticism. A White House spokesperson said the president is “rolling back burdensome regulations that were killing the industry,” crediting his policies with record production levels in June. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has repeatedly argued that cutting red tape is making drilling cheaper.

But the Dallas Fed’s data shows otherwise: 57% of executives said regulatory changes since January have reduced their breakeven costs by less than $1 per barrel—far too small to offset volatility in global markets and rising capital costs.

Long-term risks

Several executives also warned that Trump’s attacks on renewables could backfire on the fossil fuel sector in the long run. Investors, wary of policy volatility and the “stroke of pen” risk that Trump wields over energy projects, are pulling back from energy entirely, they said.

“Life is long, and the sword being wielded against the renewables industry right now will likely boomerang back in 3.5 years against traditional energy,” one respondent warned, predicting harsher methane penalties, tighter permitting rules, and tougher environmental reviews if Democrats return to power.

The outlook

The survey underscores the precarious state of U.S. shale. Once hailed as the engine of America’s energy independence, the sector is now squeezed by weak prices, high costs, political uncertainty, and dwindling investor confidence.

With Trump pressing for cheaper crude to keep inflation in check, executives fear that the very policies billed as pro-oil could hasten the industry’s decline.

Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI has struck a cut-rate deal with the U.S. government to provide access to its chatbot Grok for less than a dollar, directly challenging rivals OpenAI and Anthropic in the increasingly competitive government AI market.

Under the agreement with the General Services Administration (GSA), federal agencies will pay 42 cents to use Grok over the next year and a half. By contrast, OpenAI and Anthropic are charging $1 for their enterprise and government versions of ChatGPT and Claude for a 12-month period.

The discount goes beyond software access. The deal also includes direct support from xAI engineers to help agencies integrate Grok into their workflows, giving Musk’s startup a hands-on edge in tailoring deployments for federal use.

The unusual 42-cent price point fits Musk’s trademark flair for symbolism. It may be either a play on his repeated “420” references—often tied to his public marijuana jokes—or a nod to “The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy,” which famously calls 42 the answer to the meaning of life, the universe, and everything.

A Deal Revived After Controversy

The GSA arrangement comes just months after a high-profile setback. Earlier this year, xAI was reportedly close to being approved as a government vendor, but the plan collapsed when Grok began generating antisemitic posts and even labeled itself “MechaHitler” on X, the Musk-owned social media platform. The episode raised alarms in Washington about the reliability and security of Musk’s AI technology.

However, in late August, internal emails obtained by Wired revealed the White House intervened, instructing the GSA to add Grok to the approved vendor list “ASAP.” That move cleared the way for this week’s announcement, positioning xAI alongside OpenAI and Anthropic as a sanctioned AI supplier to federal agencies.

The company has also been selected—along with Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI—for a $200 million Pentagon contract, expanding the scope of AI partnerships into defense and military planning.

Musk’s Broader Government Footprint

Musk’s push into federal AI contracts comes against the backdrop of his deepening influence inside Washington since President Donald Trump’s return to office. Following the inauguration, Musk established the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a cost-cutting initiative that has seen mixed results.

As part of that effort, Musk placed several aides inside key agencies, including the GSA, which oversees procurement and contracting. These moves are understood to have given him proximity to regulatory levers and contracting processes that shape government spending in industries where Musk has commercial stakes—from aerospace and energy to now artificial intelligence.

Implications for the AI Market

The 42-cent Grok deal highlights how price is emerging as a strategic weapon in the AI wars. xAI is signaling it is willing to sacrifice short-term revenue for government market share by undercutting OpenAI and Anthropic’s $1 offers by more than half. Analysts say that kind of aggressive pricing could pressure rivals to revisit their margins, especially in enterprise and public sector contracts, where large-scale deployments are at stake.

Yet questions remain about Grok’s reliability after its earlier missteps, and whether agencies will view the chatbot as a serious tool for sensitive federal work. Critics have warned that if the technology continues to generate erratic or offensive responses, the government could face both reputational and operational risks.

The rivalry also underscores a broader shift in the AI industry: federal contracts are now a frontline battleground. Winning government trust not only provides recurring revenue but also serves as a powerful endorsement that can bolster credibility with corporations worldwide. For Musk, the Grok deal represents both a comeback from earlier embarrassment and an aggressive bid to outmaneuver OpenAI—the company he helped create and now battles fiercely in courtrooms and markets.