“Most of the refineries that we procure from are actually shutting down their operations because of the clamour for green energy and COP26 compliance” – Chief Financial Officer of NNPC, Umar Ajia.

Yes, many refineries around the world are closing shops and Nigeria has to work harder to import petrol. This is consistent with my playbook that investing in modular refineries (not the multi-product type Dangote is building), which just refine crude oil, and give the core byproduct of petrol, may not be a good business decision if you are looking at an investment that would require more than a decade to break even. In other words, we’re in a transition phase on energy (Russia-Ukraine war or not) with many factors going to be programmed outside the capacity of Nigeria.

Many people are pushing for modular refineries in Nigeria. It is indeed a very exciting business, on the face of it: Nigeria needs fuel to run our generators and drive our cars. And with our refineries not producing the capacity the nation needs, we have been importing for years. Indeed, government will like to substitute the imports with locally refined products especially in this age of foreign exchange scarcity. It makes economic sense because Nigeria has the crude oil and we have no business importing refined products.

That is the optimistic exuberance why most people are getting into this. According to the Vanguard, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) expects about 20 investors to pump in $20 billion in the business.

Indeed, if they decide not to make fossil-fueled cars in Japan, Europe and the US, there is nothing you can do since they will not run those factories to serve only Nigeria. Our new car import is insignificant to shape global car production strategy.

The implication will then become: once the old fossil cars have been shipped to Nigeria, and the world moves into green energy, some of those modular refineries may see low demand. Of course, you can argue that we have at least three decades for that redesign to become a full reality. 

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has raised an alarm over the decision of most of the refineries supplying Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, to Nigeria are shutting down their operations due to clamour for green energy.

This is as the state-owned oil company has put the volume of petrol consumed in Nigeria at 66.7 million litres per day as against the average of 98 million being reported in some quarters.

This was made known by the Group Managing Director of NNPC, Mele Kyari, during the continued investigative hearing of the House of Representatives Ad-hoc Committee to investigate the petrol products subsidy regime from 2013 to 2022, on Monday in Abuja.

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Comment: Well I know that you have been consistent with your position but my take remains that 200 million people have energy needs and their energy needs can be produced at a profit. We need refineries that can make aviation fuel available, we need refineries that will make diesel available for at least 2 decades. Lot’s of our companies that have embraced the green option try to make it hybrid. We can produce for ourselves and Africa. I believe that it will help if we had options within our country.

My Response: Actually, I have no position. I am just trying to analyze data.  NNPC is saying that it is finding it harder to buy petrol because the global refiners are closing shops.  My point is this: Nigeria cannot dictate the future on this and that we need to have a strategy. If Wall Street refuses to fund new refineries, even if you build one in Nigeria, you may not have the parts. Yet, this is not happening tomorrow. But it will come! Meanwhile, other use cases of crude oil are marginal and largely inconsequential to make a refinery profitable without petrol!

Former Vice President and presidential flagbearer of PDP scored a mindless own-goal on Saturday when he spoke at the interactive session of the Arewa townhall policy dialogue in Kaduna. It was his worst speech as a politician who many have seen to be detribalized. Many in Nigeria still believe that Atiku won the 2019 elections against Buhari.

But with Tinubu coming with a high voltage political force in his domain, Atiku is moving back to that dangerous “small mind” of look at my name, look at where I come from, and the associated demons. The former vice president has many things he can point to for the citizens to vote for him. With Obasanjo, they ran a really decent playbook. As the VP, he was the unofficial coordinator of the economy, well ahead of the ministers. There was peace under them and new sectors like telecoms blossomed.  They paid down debts or got them waived. I mean Waziri has many good records to prosecute this election.

What he does not need to say is that voters should vote for him because he is from the north. He is beyond that and he must move away for that. We need to preach competence. We need to canvas on readiness to read. We need to showcase vision. But NO to tribal politics.

Many northerners will vote for Atiku, Obi, and Tinubu. Many southerners will do the same. I do not expect Nigerians to use Atiku’s logic as they vote. Tinubu cannot tell SW “vote for me because I am Yoruba” or Obi to Igbos “you have never  since 1999 voted for any Igbo, please vote for me as I am an Igbo”.

I condemn Atiku’s logic and challenge him to move away from that.  My mathematics teacher in JSS3 was named Mr. Bukar. We all liked him because he was a really smart man. A teacher must have impacted your life to still remember his name decades after spending a semester in his class. Bukar for maths was a slogan and he booked many into mathematics (under him, no student failed Mathematics in JS3 external exam even though we had 3 who failed English. In other words, Mathematics was easier for all under him).

If they had sent an unprepared Igbo-man teacher from Umuahia who knew nothing, I am not sure that would have helped us. In other words, Nigeria can only rise on competence and not tribal sentiments. Let’s focus on that – and leave where we all came from!

After intervening in the tussle between Kogi State Government and Dangote Cement Plc over the ownership of Obajana cement factory, the federal government has ordered the reopening of the plant.

The federal government’s order to reopen the cement plant, which was shut last week on the orders of the Kogi State Government, was disclosed by the Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola, on Friday at the end of the National Security Council meeting.

The former governor of Osun State said that an agreement had been reached between Kogi State Government and Dangote Group on the necessity to reopen the cement factory, urging both parties to sheathe their swords and honor the deal.

“The council noted the development in Kogi and has ordered the reopening of the cement factory that is closed down and has advised that all issues related to that industry or factory should be resolved in accordance with the law, legally.

“Nobody must take the law into their own hands, either as a government or an individual. We are committed to guaranteeing and providing employment for Nigerians, whatever will hinder that or impede that must be discouraged.

“So, in that regard, the cement industry in Obajana must be reopened and all issues that are in dispute should be resolved legally,” Aregbesola said.

The lingering squabble between the Kogi State Government and Dangote Group over the ownership of the Obajana Cement Company escalated last week, following the inability of the duo to resolve it amicably. Dangote Cement claims 100% ownership of the plant while the Kogi State government said it is co-owned by the state, and that the company has been short-changing both the state and its indigenes by not giving the state its fair share.

Also, the Minister of Police Affairs, Maigari Dingyadi, who’s part of the federal government-led peace initiative, said an amicable solution has been reached to bring to an end this unfortunate development.

“An agreement has been reached between the Kogi State Government and the Dangote Cement in Kogi on the need to reopen the factory and ensure that peace is restored in the state,” he noted.

A picture shared on Friday after the NSC meeting, showed the governor of Kogi State, Yahaya Bello and the Chairman of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote in what appeared like a reconciliatory pose. However, the picture does not indicate that an agreement has been reached by both parties.

The Kogi State Government is yet to acknowledge that the matter has been settled, suggesting that the fight over the cement plant has not ended.