There seems to be little hope for economic recovery for Nigeria in the near future as the oil production shortfalls that have largely contributed to slow Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to extend to the next three years.

The situation was confirmed on Wednesday by the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs. Zainab Ahmed, after the Federal Executive Council meeting held in Abuja. According to the draft copy of the Medium Term Expenditure Framework 2023-2025, which was approved by the minister, the federal government has projected that the oil sector’s contribution to GDP will decline between 2023 and 2025 to 5%.

The oil sector has increasingly faltered quarter-on-quarter, trailing other sectors of the economy in contribution to Nigeria’s GDP growth.

According to data published by the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in February 2022, the oil sector contribution to the Nigerian economy declined to 5.19% at N1.055 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2021, down by 3.68 basis points, from the 5.87% contribution in the corresponding period in 2020.

This is notably as a result of the decline in the nation’s oil output that has fallen short of its 1.753 million barrels per day (mbpd) OPEC’s quota. Nigeria’s oil production has dropped Year-on-Year, by 23.8% to 1.024 (mbpd) in May 2022, from 1.344 mbpd recorded in the corresponding period of 2021, according to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The Finance Minister said that in the draft document of the framework, crude oil price assumption for 2023 is $70 per barrel, 2024 is $66 per barrel and $62 per barrel for 2025, with an estimated production rate of 1.69 million barrels per day for 2023 and 1.813 million barrels per day for 2024 and 2025.

“The assumptions that we made for the next medium term framework from 2023 to 2025 is that crude oil price will be at $70 per barrel for 2023, $66 per barrel for 2024 and $62 per barrel for 2025.

“Crude oil production is projected to be 1.69million bpd for 2023 and 1.813million bpd for both 2024 as well as 2025.

“We have also projected on the nominal GDP, that the size of Nigeria’s economy will rise up to N225.5 trillion with 95 percent of this contribution by the non-oil sector while the oil sector will contribute only five per cent.

“And some steady increase from 2024 to reach up to N280.7 trillion in 2025. This means that Nigeria continues to retain its position as the largest economy in Africa,” she said.

The oil windfall orchestrated by Russia-Ukraine conflict presented a golden opportunity for OPEC members to increase their GDP – but Nigeria is missing in the party.

The Minister of State for Petroleum, Chief Timipre Sylva, has attributed the shortfalls to vandalism of oil installations and crude oil theft that has cost Nigeria’s economy N3.038 trillion in the past one year.

With a solution not in sight, the federal government appears to be shifting attention to non-oil sectors.

President Muhammadu Buhari has touted agriculture to be Nigeria’s new main source of revenue generation. But insecurity in the country, particularly in the northern region, has greatly stymied the aim.

Other sectors are also striving under an unfriendly business environment dominated by epileptic power supply, making it difficult for the non-oil sector to fill the gap created in the nation’s GDP by the oil production shortfalls.

It is one of the most important new business models in Nigeria. It has grown from three people to hundreds in less than 18 months. And the firm just unveiled a massive refurbishment factory so that technicians and engineers can  refurbish electronics, a/cs, generators, furniture, etc, at scale.

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I watched with so much shame and disgust yesterday how some of the members of the Senate proudly staged a protest and walked out of the plenary session in lieu of impeaching the president over the insecurity challenge amongst other struggles the nation has been facing.

It is quite shameful and I say this with so many tears in my eyes that the lawmakers have been reduced to mere protesters and resorted to protest instead of manning up and carrying out their statutory duty of impeaching the president as constitutionally provided as at when the need arises. It is far long overdue. I boldly say that in a sane political clime, the president ought to have been impeached long ago, by whatever standard anyone wants to measure or argue it.

All the lawmakers ended up doing yesterday was media gimmicks, tomfoolery, a display of ignorance, and an outstanding show of shame with so much pride. It was rightly described in a response by the Presidential spokesperson that their act of yesterday was “childish” and I totally agree.

There’s no constitutional provision for impeachment procedure known as a protest or walk out. So some of the lawmakers walking out and staging a protest only reduced them to toothless bulldogs that can only bark but can never bite.

The procedure for impeachment is duly provided for in S.143 of the constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria. For benefit of the doubt, I will represent the step-by-step process of impeaching the president as provided by the constitution Incase the honorable lawmakers have forgotten.

According to the constitutional provision; the first step in the impeachment process of the president is a written notice of an allegation of gross misconduct against the person of the president which is duly signed by at least 1/3 members of the National Assembly (Senate and House of Representatives inclusive).

The senate president must within 7 days serve the president with the notice of the allegation and every other member of the National Assembly must be served a copy of the notice.

When the President and each member of the National Assembly have been served, the National Assembly must within 14 days resolve if the allegation against the president is to be investigated or not.

If the National Assembly resolves that the allegation against the president is to be investigated, the Senate president must within seven days request the Chief Justice of Nigeria to set up a seven-man panel to investigate this allegation(s).

The panel is given three months to investigate this allegation and their findings are to be reported back to the National Assembly. During the process, the president has every right to appear before the panel and defend himself in person or through his legal representative(s).

When the panel reports that allegations against the president have been proven or substantiated, the National Assembly will consider the report and adopt the report.

Once the report of the panel is adopted the president stands to be removed from office and ceases to hold or occupy the office of the president from the moment the report is adopted.

From the processes highlighted, it is crystal clear that the impeachment process of the president in Nigeria is quite stringent and cumbersome, hence the reason why the lawmakers should stop playing around and initiate the process if they really want to impeach the Mr. President (which is long overdue) because they have a really long way to go.

In nowhere in the constitution is staging a protest or walking out of the plenary session by lawmakers or giving the president six weeks ultimatum is referred to as an impeachment process in the constitution or any other Nigerian law. The lawmakers should cease the gimmicks and stop making fools of themselves and follow the procedures laid down by the constitution if they mean the business of impeaching the president.

As Nigeria goes through a challenging season of leadership quagmire, I want you to remember that nations rarely kaput. In this video, I introduce two men I study – Carlos Slim (Mexican billionaire) and Franklin Templeton (stock picker of the 20th century). As Abuja demoralizes you, remember that the sun will always rise. Do not kill that idea, because Nigeria will always be.

Franklin Templeton began a firm in 1947, against all odds, at the ruins of World War II. Mr Slim bought anything in his sight at one of the lowest points in Mexican history – the peso was down and markets in ruins. Templeton trusted the human race and bought “useless” stocks. Slim’s father told him that countries do not fail; they always come back.

Becoming successful in life is not about being busy – it is understanding things and making sense of them, more meaningfully. There are acres of diamond in Nigeria today, across many areas. Look for them. If you do not believe in humans, it is unlikely you can see opportunities in life. 

This moment will go and like the cryolite, the beautiful gems out of periwinkle, new moments will emerge. Plan to vote but do not lose confidence because abundance remains in the future.

I invested in the local pharmaceutical distribution space last week because very soon, importing foreign drugs will go. The challenges in Nigeria must redesign your investment thesis because even in the miry clay, special greener pastures remain. Think and thrive.