Geregu Power Plc has projected a post-tax profit of N12.1 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, a slight uptick from its N11.7 billion forecast for Q3, which is yet to be released.
The projection, filed with the Nigerian Exchange and signed by the company’s CEO and CFO, signals confidence that the power firm will close the year with its strongest earnings yet.
If realized, the estimate would bring Geregu’s full-year 2025 post-tax profit to about N44 billion or more, assuming quarterly results match expectations.
The trajectory is shaped by a mixed but resilient performance over the first three quarters. In Q1, the company projected N11.3 billion with an EPS of N4.5, but delivered slightly lower at N10.4 billion and EPS of N4.17. Q2 projections were beaten, with the company estimating N8.6 billion in profit but delivering N9.7 billion and EPS of N3.9. Analysts believe Q3’s projected N11.7 billion profit is within reach, pending official results.
Revenue Surge in Q2 a Turning Point
A major driver of Geregu’s strong outlook has been its revenue base. In Q2 2025, revenue jumped to N55.8 billion from N30.2 billion a year earlier. Energy sales contributed N35.8 billion, while capacity charges added N19.9 billion.
After accounting for N32.1 billion in cost of sales, gross profit climbed to N23.7 billion, representing an 81.8% rise from the N13 billion reported in Q2 2024.
By contrast, Q1 saw weaker top-line performance, with revenue slipping to N31.7 billion from N50.4 billion in the same period of 2024. Energy sales of N20.8 billion still outpaced capacity charges of N10.8 billion, while the cost of sales eased to N19.7 billion compared to N22 billion the year before, leaving a gross profit of N12 billion.
The rebound in Q2 reflected a healthier top-line trend, and the Q4 forecast suggests Geregu expects this momentum to carry through to year-end.
Operational Health Sustains Bottom Line
Geregu’s profitability has also been underpinned by its operational health. In Q2, operating profit rose 73.7% to N15 billion from N8.6 billion a year earlier. Rising operating expenses, including impairment losses on financial assets, which climbed to N6 billion from N2 billion, were offset by strong earnings from core operations. This allowed the company to stay profitable despite a net finance cost of N1.7 billion.
In Q1, operating profit was N14.6 billion, down from N21.7 billion in 2024. However, impairment losses reversed dramatically, turning a N3.9 billion loss in Q1 2024 into a profit of N5.2 billion. Administrative expenses inched up modestly from N2.1 billion to N2.5 billion, signaling tight cost control.
This balance between revenue growth and expense management points to a business model that has proven adaptable in a volatile power sector environment.
Comparative Industry Context
Unlike several players in Nigeria’s power sector that remain weighed down by mounting receivables and weak collections, Geregu has consistently signaled stronger balance sheet discipline. Its performance contrasts with the broader industry trend, where profitability is often hampered by regulatory bottlenecks, gas supply issues, and inefficiencies in transmission.
Analysts note that Geregu’s emphasis on energy sales as the dominant revenue source — as opposed to overreliance on capacity charges — strengthens its cash flow prospects. For comparison, many of Nigeria’s power generation companies have been more exposed to capacity payments that are often delayed by systemic liquidity challenges in the electricity market.
Experts also point to Geregu’s habit of issuing clear quarterly forecasts — and disclosing when actuals fall short or exceed estimates — as a distinguishing feature in Nigeria’s capital market. Even when projections are narrowly missed, such as in Q1, the consistency in guidance is viewed as a sign of transparency that could boost investor confidence.
In a sector where listed power firms often face skepticism over reporting delays and opaque financial disclosures, Geregu’s approach positions it as one of the more dependable power firms on the NGX. Analysts believe this practice could help attract greater institutional investor interest, particularly as Nigeria’s electricity market undergoes reforms aimed at increasing private capital participation.
Outlook
With Q4 profit projected at N12.1 billion, the company appears poised to post its best annual results since listing. Sustained profitability, however, will hinge on maintaining top-line growth, managing impairment risks, and navigating sector-wide challenges in receivables recovery and gas supply costs.
Still, Geregu’s projections place it among the more resilient and better-capitalized players in the Nigerian power space, offering a rare bright spot in a sector still struggling to stabilize.
