The Federal Government has said that it is targeting an increase in e-commerce trading, from the current market value of $13bn to about $75bn by 2025. The Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr Evelyn Ngige, disclosed this on Tuesday in Abuja at the second National E-commerce Roundtable.The statements were made on Ngige’s behalf by the Director, Commodities and Export Department, Suleiman Audu.

However Prof Ndubuisi Ekekwe has produced an interesting article for Tekedia Institute yesterday entitled:  ‘Buhari’s Legacy And Great Unification of Southern Nigerian Governors‘ In the article, Ekekwe muses on a Presidential ‘own goal’ following with a verbatim quote of the ‘meeting of the governors of Southern Nigerian in the Government House, Enugu, yesterday (16 September):

‘ #3. Reaffirmed its earlier commitment to fiscal federalism as resolved at the inaugural meeting of the Forum held on Tuesday, 11th May 2021 at Asaba, Delta State and emphasized the need for the Southern States to leverage the legislative competence of their respective State Houses of Assembly as well as representation in the National assembly to pursue its inclusion in the Nigerian Constitution through the ongoing constitutional amendment.

#4. Following from paragraph “3” above, the meeting resolved to support the position that the collection of VAT falls within the powers of the States.’

Conceivably, since E-Commerce transactions actually take place in ‘The Cloud’, it can be an interpretation by FGN that such transactions do not enjoy the jurisdiction of any specific state within the Federation.

This is irrespective of where any E-Commerce business chooses to site its physical activities, such as its administrative HQ, its distribution management or its warehousing (as applicable).

Over time, more and more shopping in Nigeria will be done online. Should FGN ultimately lose the legal war with individual States on VAT jurisdiction, FIRS (Federal Inland Revenue Services) may claw back VAT on online sales, interpreting them to be ‘extra-state’ in nature.

Is it any wonder then, that FGN may find a renewed eagerness and enthusiasm for virtual trade?

However, parallel to this we know that there are quiet but concerted efforts to end the Twitter ban:

‘I can tell that we’re just actually talking about a few, just a few more days now.’  said the Minister of Information and Culture, Lai Mohammed, while briefing journalists at the State House in Abuja on Wednesday.

The question is, should FGN argue the jurisdiction of E Commerce trade as being the preserve of FIRS in respect of VAT, wrestling it back from States…Does this set a dangerous precedent in FGNs delicate efforts to secure income from Social Media Moguls?

If FGN establish the jurisdiction of  E Commerce trade as being ‘extra state’…

What is to stop the social media moguls to cite the case, and use the same argument to establish that their operations are indeed, ‘extra-sovereign’ ?

For now, at least, multiple final outcomes are unclear.

We might say, its a bit up in the clouds!

I have called AbokiFX the most powerful economic website in Nigeria, due to its ability  to influence Nigeria’s trade through the asymmetric impact it has on Naira exchange rate. Honestly, I am not a fan. They have made things really hard even here in the US. You set a price on something in Naira and the next day for no apparent economic reason, new rates evolve. 

It turns out that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is paying attention to the factories of the future: digital startups. AbokiFX foreign exchange policy is stronger than whatever CBN has been doing with banks in the last six months. The government was to fight AbokiFX for its market “opinions”!

The Central Bank of Nigeria has accused the Abokifx, a website that collates the black market exchange rates of naira, of carrying out an “illegal activity that undermines the economy”.

The CBN governor, Godwin Emefiele, said the publisher of platform, Oniwinde Adedotun, was involved in “illegal forex trading”. […]

“It is completely illegal and unacceptable…Mr Oniwinde is an illegal fx dealer that have inflow and sold tens of millions of fx to several Nigerian companies in contravention of the fx law, he directly benefits from the rates he quotes daily on his website.”

CBN governor contends that AbokiFX could be involved in market manipulations. That would be unfortunate indeed. I hope they get to the root of this matter as quickly as possible as Naira needs help.

Meanwhile, foreign stock trading apps are coming back to life. From Bamboo: “We wanted to update you on the latest developments regarding the recent court order. The Federal High Courts Abuja has issued a varied order to unfreeze our bank accounts so that we can continue operations. As always, we remain completely dedicated to serving you and you can rest assured that your monies and investments are safe with us.” Nigeria’s apex bank has frozen the bank accounts of many foreign stock trading apps on the accusations of forex issues.

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Comment #1: Abokifx.com to my knowledge is just a parallel market exchange rate information aggregating website. We all know what the Nigerian problem regarding autonomous forex markets. Has CBN gone after dealers at Eko Hotel, Federal Palace Hotel, MMIA, Broad Street and Ikeja Airport Hotel yet? Has it attempted to influence the market by selling dollars to buyers at a lower price?

My Response: “Has CBN gone after dealers at Eko Hotel, Federal Palace Hotel, MMIA, Broad Street and Ikeja Airport Hotel yet? – Eko hotel, etc dealers are bounded by geography but AbokitFX is unconstrained and unbounded and that is why it is powerful

Comment #2: Anything that can help put a stop to this madness, I support it 100%. I keep questioning how we wake up each day and naira keeps doing top up, with no economic fundamentals or commodity price movement to point to, yet we accept the manipulation as mere demand and supply issue.

Some people are out to destroy our Naira, and if we don’t fight back, they will ask for our heads too.

Emefiele doesn’t need plenty press conferences on this one, all our national intelligence and security arsenals should be unleashed on these economic bandits.

Ribadu’s EFCC made a lot of people tremble those days, we need something similar and much more sophisticated this time, the era of smiling or appealing to our adversaries is over.

Our 2021 Q3 numbers are out and 2021 is looking SUPER-GREAT. Our leverages are compounding very well.  We continue to be laser-focused on pricing because “the most significant opportunity for African B2C startups lies with consumers who earn between $4 — $8 per day … This is largely because that income band holds the highest concentration of discretionary spending power on the continent, as the graph below shows.”

Companies like Bigi Cola and La Casera understand this redesign. You can also make a case that the sachetization in places like Nigeria where everything is now bundled in sachets has a root therein. Simply, there are not many consumers outside that $4-$8 per day segment for any big B2C business (if you focus outside this segment, your business must have a dose of B2B).

Interestingly, that is also where I see a big percentage of my popular 30 million people who earn relatively decent income in Nigeria; those 30 million are the core of the consumer market.