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‘When is President Buhari Tenure Ending?’ Nigerian Youths in Dilemma as Twitter Ban Becomes Effective

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Social networking sites are part of the tools being used globally for holding political leaders accountable and in some cases businesses. In the last decade, interest in using the sites has been on the increase in developing countries, where citizens believe that the sites could help them in demanding and getting good leadership towards sustainable socioeconomic development.

Year-on-year, the users of Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, YouTube among others are growing. It is instructive to know that these sites are not only deploy for political purposes, but also for business activities. One of the factors that has been attributed to the growth of social media use is the increase in the number of Internet users. In 2020, it was reported that Nigeria has 46.6% of its population as the Internet users. This is expected to reach 65.3% in 2025. Available statistics indicate that Twitter is the second most use social networking site in Nigeria after Facebook. Between May 2020 and May 2021, Twitter user grew by 5.06% [see Exhibit 1].

Exhibit 1: Share of Nigerians’ Select Social Media Users

Source: Social Media Counter, 2021; Infoprations Analysis, 2021

In the political space, the sites are being used by citizens and politicians for engagement before, during and after elections. From the administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo to Musa Yar’dua and Goodluck Jonathan, Facebook and Twitter were used by their media handlers for civic engagement. While these sites were deployed, the handlers were commended and chided in relation to the government’s policies and programmes. The constant reactions from the public to the messages emanated from the presidency has never for a second stopped since 2015, the year President Muhammadu Buhari took over from former President Jonathan.

What has changed according to social commentators and public affairs analysts is the current government’s inability to withstand severe criticism from non-state actors. The criticism has been primarily occasioned by the various socioeconomic and political challenges ravaging the country and the government seems not be concerned about finding lasting solutions to them.

President Buhari’s recent statement on the need for the citizens in the southeastern region to support the government in ensuring peace and unity was quoted and posted on Twitter by the media handlers. Part of the message was considered offensive and capable of leading to genocide by the microblogging site. The site enforced its rules by deleting the message, this led to banning of the company’s operations in Nigeria.

Our analyst examines reactions to the ban by the government. In 24 hours of enforcing the ban by the telecommunication operators, analysis reveals that interest was more in knowing why the Federal Government banned Twitter, what is happening to the microblogging site and how to use Virtual Private Network to access it as the telecommunication operators effected government’s order. One of the critical questions being asked by the Internet users, who are mostly the youths, is When is President Buhari tenure ending? This is being asked on Google Search Engine.

In spite of the ban, our check shows that some users are using VPNs to access the microblogging site. Having discovered this, our analyst mined 10,195 tweets for further analysis and understanding of what the users debated between 10 am and 2pm on June 5, 2021. A total of 316, 130 words was used by the users to express their feelings about the ban.

Significantly, analysis establishes the use of ban, twitter, Nigeria, government, Nigerians, President Buhari. Endsars, freedom, people, power, democracy as dominant words appropriated to questioning rationales behind the ban. We also found democracy, Fulani herdsmen, dictatorship, policy, terrorism, cryptocurrency, Buharimustgo and accountability as dominant words.

From the ethnographic analysis of the tweets, our analyst found that these words were used within the contexts of existing socioeconomic and political challenges. These words were also discovered to be divisive factors, categorising the users into Pro-Government Group, Pro-Twitter Group, Anti-Government and Anti-Twitter. In our dataset, members of the Anti-Twitter Group were minute while the Anti-Government were many. It also emerged that members of PTG were more than those in PGG.

These groups equally have different perspectives regarding the ban. PGG believes that the microblogging is posing serious threat to national security and unity when one considers how the users are using it to spread fake news and misinformation. On the other hand, members of the PTG consider the decision as a factor that would affect Nigeria’s image globally and also increasing unemployment rate among the youths who are working in the digital economy sector.

Exhibit 2: Dominant Themes in Tweets

Source: Nigerian Twitter Community, 2021; Infoprations Analysis, 2021

The Economics of Twitter and What Nigeria Needs To Know

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If Nigeria thinks that it could inflict financial harm on Twitter, it must recalibrate. My estimate is that former US President Donald Trump possibly had more followers than 95% of all accounts in Nigeria combined, before Twitter suspended his account with close to 90 million followers. Largely, if Twitter had been overly concerned about the financial impacts, it would not have done that, as Trump was a rainmaker for the company in the microblogging domain. Unlike the industrial world of ExxonMobil, Chevron and Shell where entities saw all relationships with governments from the balance sheets, modern companies like Twitter and Facebook see things differently. 

Why? The raw materials are the users because those users provide the critical factor of production which is now used to produce the final products. For any tweet on Twitter, a user is adding in the production system, feeding Twitter algorithms, to engage everyone. Anything that can break that supply chain, from the angle of the platforms, must be immediately managed.

It comes down to a virtuoso circle of network effects with its accelerating returns, generating a positive loop that keeping many users will favor a platform rather than pandering to bullies who will scare everyone. This differs from the industrial age firms like Shell where governments control access to the raw materials (crude oil deposits). They will fold to politicians!

Twitter runs a business model called Aggregation and it is the most potent business model in the world. Most of the top leading technology companies in the world have an element of it. And platform policy is at the heart of the playbook. 

Under the aggregation construct, the companies that control the value are not usually the ones that created them. Google News and Facebook control news distribution in Nigeria than Guardian, ThisDay and others. Because the MNCs tech firms “own” the audience and the customers, the advertisers focus on them, hoping to reach the readers through them. Just like that, the news creators have been systematically sidelined as they earn lesser and lesser from their works. But the aggregators like Facebook and Google smile to the bank. The reason why this happens is because of the abundance which Internet makes possible. Everyone has access to more users but that does not correlate to more revenue because the money goes to people that can help simplify the experiences to the users who will not prefer to be visiting all the news site to get any information they want. They go to Google and search and then Google takes them to the website in Nigeria with the information. Advertisers understand the value created is now with Google which simplifies that process.

If this ban continues, I will offer myself for the Office of the President, Federal Republic of Nigeria. One of my campaign promises would be to restore Twitter back to Nigeria. Magical? Lol. Yes indeed – for all the challenges in Nigeria – Naira crossing N500/$, insecurity, inflation, debts, youth unemployment, etc – the only thing that engages the Nigerian government is a blue bird. Tufiakwa!

 

Comment on LinkedIn Feed

Comment: I would prefer a president that is ready to ban twitter and any other social media platforms that tries to dictate to the state.

My Response: Hilary Unachukwu Economics textbooks have not changed how they see firms because new business models like aggregation are yet to enter into those textbooks. Unlike the industrial era books which we still use in secondary schools, if you see all from the modern era, the power of social media platforms come from the users. And because of that, they do not answer to any government.

More so, unlike the old world, the raw materials are outside the control of government. So, magically, there are limited options for governments.  The greatest risk to Twitter is not the Nigerian government but a possibility that a Lagos company which provides a critical plugin could disconnect it. Since that does not exist, Nigeria can fight with an algorithm, giving Twitter free global advertising in WaPost, NYTimes, etc.

Facebook suspends Trump for 2 years: it made headlines in all conservative circuits. And many go to Facebook to express frustrations. Facebook smiles to the bank. It is called a continuum. In mathematics, it is asymptotic in nature: catch me if you can, but you cannot!

Comment #2: Social media platforms’ power came from the people. So why are social media platforms eager to censor? Because aggregation cause centralization of power, Power in the media. This is not economics. This is politics. The government should not allow any adversary the power of propaganda by means of medium control. Nigeria’s government is not fighting the algorithm. They have just stopped the operation of a company. As they should have done. Maybe they should try the same thing to the Ghanaian government and see what happens. Donald Trump let his opponents have the power to not only censor him but abuse and attack his supporters also. No state should repeat that mistake. I’m bad at mathematics, but I will not add to my opponents power.

My response #2: HU , I think EB explained this clearly “read T&C before clicking NEXT”. What Twitter is doing has been going on in all human systems: ability to ban and suspend guests. The only difference here is that BIG people are affected. A school can suspend a student. A club can ban members. APC can suspend and ban members. Those happen when they do not follow the T&Cs. If you do not like the T&C, do not join the club. But if you do, follow the rules! I understand how a man who has never been “banned” or “suspended” will feel what we the commoners go through. But he accepted the T&C.

Nigeria Criminalizes Use of Twitter: Government To Prosecute Violators

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Nigeria banned Twitter and also directed the telcos to immediately cut-off the microblogging platform from the Nigerian telecom systems. Now, the Attorney General has brought the law to execute the deal: “Office of the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice… to swing into action and commence in earnest the process of prosecution of violators of the Federal Government De-activation of operations of Twitter in Nigeria.” 

While we do not know yet if this statement is directed to the telcos, sim card sellers, laptop or phone sellers, or ordinary Twitter users, what is evident here is that very soon, the Police can round people up for violating the Twitter ban policy.

So, it is now illegal to use Twitter in Nigeria. Nigerian democracy in action. People, elections have consequences.

Next Level remains two more years!

The Full Statement

“Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami, SAN has directed for immediate prosecution of offenders of the Federal Government ban on Twitter operations in Nigeria.

“Malami directed the Director of Public Prosecution of the Federation (DPPF) at the Office of the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, to swing into action and commence in earnest the process of prosecution of violators of the Federal Government De-activation of operations of Twitter in Nigeria.

“Malami directed the DPPF to liase with the Ministry of Communication and Digital Economy, National Communication Communication (NCC) and other relevant government agencies to ensure the speedy prosecution of offenders without any further delay.”

Two More Days For Tekedia Mini-MBA To Begin

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Two more days and we will begin the academic excursion into the mechanics of market systems at Tekedia Mini-MBA. This edition which begins June 7 is the best yet. And it remains the same price. Click, register and co-learn with us. Registration closes soon.