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The Race to Contain COVID-19: Key Lessons from High versus Low Power Countries

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Source: Google Trends, 2020; Infoprations Analysis, 2020

Since COVID-19 became a pandemic, keeping cases and mortality rate low has been the priority of global leaders. From government to business, leaders have taken and still taking a number of measures. Governments have been flexible and rigid in the implementation of some of the measures such as lockdown and social distancing. Businesses have come to the rescue of governments and individuals through some palliatives, especially donating to the war against the containment and possible vaccine development for total elimination of the virus that has infected million of people and killed thousands.

Despite positive outcomes in some countries, public affairs analysts and citizens believe that political leaders are using the pandemic to further enshrine their dictatorial rules on people through strict measures. This piece examines this and other issues in the race to full containment of the virus. The piece is not in support of dictatorial administrations or trampling upon fundamental human rights of global citizens at this critical time. Instead, it takes a critical look at how unequal power-driven measures are helping some countries in slowing the speed of transmission and emerging cases of the virus.

Power Distribution: What Does it Mean?

Several researches have shown that people accept power distribution and respect authorities differently. In a country with high respect for authority, people are expected to accept an unequal, hierarchical distribution of power and understand what is expected of them in terms of duties and roles towards personal and societal development. In the country with low respect for authority, people do not accept situations where power is distributed unequally. These positions have been popularised in the last two decades through researches and industrial applications in line with Geert Hofstede’s beliefs.

What does this mean for COVID-19 containment?  The answers lie in the fact that governments would do everything possible to stop the spread of the virus. In the course of doing this, stricter and lighter measures would be deployed. When the measures are stricter, our analysis suggests that the governments that deployed the measures played high power culture game. On the other hand, lighter measures place some governments within the low power culture game.

In high power culture game, we found that citizens and residents of the countries that played the game between January and April, 2020 followed the measures. This is largely due to some strict penalties put in place by authorities to enhance the enforcement. For the low power culture game, analysis suggests that people still had their way. They devised means of not following the measures as expected. When they adhered to the measures, analysis reveals that they were afraid of the likely consequences to personal life not to everyone.

How Public in High Power Countries See COVID-19

Our first point of analysis was the interest of citizens and residents in Coronavirus globally. We examined the interest through searching for specific information about the virus. Our analysis reveals over 50 countries where people had significant interest in the virus between January and April, 2020. From these countries, we concentrated our resources on the top 20 countries. The second analysis was done with the examination of scores recorded by the countries within high versus low power component of Geert Hofstede’s assumptions about culture. We found France, Qatar, Panama, Peru, United Arab Emirates, Uruguay, Romania and Portugal as places where people need to respect authorities and abide by rules without much inquisitorial. The remaining 12 countries are nations where people are not expected to respect authorities absolutely.

As at May 9, 2020, all the 20 countries have had a total of 2,417,390 as confirmed cases, while recoveries were 607,024. We equally discovered 205,309 as total deaths for the countries. The volume of public interest through the Internet search about the virus was 995, while the total scores of all the countries within the Hofstede’s component is 1,076. Looking at the threshold of interest (0-100) and individual score for high and low power context-nation (0-100), public interest in the virus and understanding that France is a high power context country is clearly established as the scores show 3 score difference.  Portugal also exhibits similar outcome as the public interest threshold score in the virus is more than half of the score recorded for being a high power context country.  In order of highest scores, Panama, Qatar, Romania and United Arab Emirates are high power context countries than France and Portugal [see Exhibit 1]. What do these scores mean for COVID-19 containment through government’s measures or policies?

Exhibit 1: Public Interest in Coronavirus and Unequal Power Distribution Scores

Source: Google Trends, 2020; Hofstede, 2020; Infoprations Analysis, 2020

Exhibit 2: Average of the Key Indicators

Source: Google Trends, 2020; Hofstede, 2020; Wikipedia, 2020; Infoprations Analysis, 2020

High Versus Low Power Distribution: What Does it Mean for COVID-19 Restraint?

Both have positive and negative consequences on the extent of taming the speed of transmission of the virus and possible treatment of the infected persons. A recent survey reveals that “63 percent of French people indicated coughing, sneezing and spitting into disposable tissues in order to protect themselves from catching COVID-19. Furthermore, 90 percent avoided handshakes with people they know and almost 10 percent indicated wearing a protective face mask when leaving their home.” Beyond the public practicing of these measures or directives, in his government’s readiness to contain the virus after the first case and an understanding of how the virus is spreading globally, French President said “nationalism is not the answer to the coronavirus outbreak.”  He followed this statement with a number of strict measures, which range from total lockdown of Paris, the country’s capital to strict processes for essential movements within the country. In an effort to enforce social distancing and the use of masks, the French government deploys video surveillance cameras that monitor how many people are wearing masks and staying at least a metre (3ft) apart. France is also one of the countries that has considered a fine for violating confinement; from €135 ($147) to €1,500 ($1,630) for recidivism within 15 days; in the event of four violations in 30 days, a fine of €3,700 ($4,021) and six months in prison is imposed.

Like France, Qatar has also introduced a number of strict measures and policies with severe penalties for the violators. The Qatari government has refined and re-refined its measures and policies on many occasions to align with the speed of transmission in the wider population beyond the worst-affected groups where tests had been targeted. In areas where construction works are ongoing, government officials are carrying out inspections to ensure businesses adherence to the measures and policies. Report has it that the Qatari government is deploying its resources to the construction sites because it remains impossible to close sites due to ongoing infrastructure development and upgrade for 2022 World Cup.  Public places such as schools have been closed while the travel ban on travellers from many countries remains.

Panama and Peru are the countries that have one of the most controversial approaches to the effectiveness of people’s movement and social distancing. The two countries want people to move out based on gender. Some days are for men. The days men are outside, women are not expected to be outside. A report says “In Peru, women can leave their homes on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday and men on Monday, Wednesday and Friday. No one can leave their homes on Sunday. The days that women and men are allowed to leave their homes are the opposite in Panama.” In Panama, security agencies have been instructed to check identity of people to find out their real gender class.  This has been described as a violation of people’s fundamental human rights, especially the rights of transgender citizen.  Despite the criticism, some people believe that it has helped the country to be an outlier in Latin America’s COVID-19 severity.

The deployment of civil-military approach for effective enforcement of measures and recent introduction of criminal penalties for the dissemination of false information about the virus in the United Arab Emirates aligns with the country’s high power context position [see Exhibit 1]. The measures taken by France, Qatar, Panama, Peru and the United Arab Emirates are not quite different from what Uruguay, Romania and Portugal have also been carrying out.

Strategic Option

Though, public analysts, human rights activists and civil society organisations are condemning approaches for the enforcement of measures of the countries, it is obvious that positive results are being recorded in these countries. They are having fewer cases and high recoveries relative to some low power context countries [see Exhibit 3]. Regardless of the positive outcomes, our analyst observes that the few cases could be that the countries with high power context are not carrying out enough tests like countries with low power context. This is premised on the fact that countries where people can challenge authorities freely, government officials are more likely to deploy more resources for testing when citizens put them (government officials) on their toes on the need to have adequate testing.

Exhibit 3: High Versus Low Power Distribution and Coronavirus Management

Source: Hofstede, 2020; Wikipedia, 2020; Infoprations Analysis, 2020

How to Discourage COVID-19 Patients from Running Away

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We keep receiving news of COVID-19 patients that ran away from their isolation centres for reasons best known to them. We also hear of those that disappear after collection of samples for tests so that if their results come out positive, finding them and moving them to isolation centres become difficult for the taskforce. Just last week a patient that ran away from Delta State isolation centre was intercepted in Enugu by the Enugu State COVID-19 Taskforce. Stories like these make one wonder why Nigerians behave strangely at times.

On Friday, 8 May, 2020, the Lagos State Commissioner for Health, Prof. Akin Abayomi, declared that the members of Lagos State Taskforce on COVID-19 are passing through unnecessary and avoidable stress. This, he noted, happens because people that tested positive flee from their houses and switch off their phones when ambulances come to pick them up and convey them to isolation centres. He raised this alarm while explaining the reason why there are so many empty beds in isolation centres despite the increasing number of active cases.

According to Abayomi, it is hard to track these runaways because their communities do not help matters. The communities of these runaways collaborate with them and hide them from the authorities. The taskforce, the commissioner said, does not have the necessary logistics to track down runaways and move them away from the midst of people. This means that a lot of these positive runaway cases are still staying somewhere in the community, even though they know they’re threats to themselves and to those hiding them.

I blame the country for this type of mess anyway because if Nigeria has complete data on everyone, it will be easier to track people. Apart from that, people no longer trusted the government. The stories flying about today are that numbers are being inflated and that negative cases are tagged positive because the government officials want to use the opportunity to embezzle funds. Information like this, be it fake or not, makes it difficult for people to trust the government they already distrusted.

But all these apart, the major problem right now is how to discourage these people from fleeing isolation centres and from the taskforce. It is the duty of state governments to ensure that their isolation centres are in good conditions and that the patients are well taken care of. Prof. Abayomi claimed that the isolation centres in Lagos State are comfortable, unlike in the days of Ebola. This may be true considering that no fake news/information has said that any isolation centre is in bad condition. We have also seen videos of people enjoying palatable dishes in these centres. But, it will still be good if they are verified to rule all negative things out.

However, as these centres are being checked, the different taskforces on COVID-19 should consider taking up the following measures:

  • Taking Patient’s Photograph

The photographs, especially the passport sized photos, of tested patients should be taken. Maybe this is already in place because I don’t know how the positive cases could be tracked down without their pictures, especially if they decide to play pranks on the taskforce. However, if this practice is not already in place, it should be considered. Taking someone’s picture will also discourage the person from running away because he knows that he will be found.

  • Obtaining Complete Data

Taking a person’s name, address and phone number may not be enough when the need to track him down arises. For that, the person should submit complete personal data, occupational information and next of kin. The next of kin may take the position of a surety. The sureties will help to make sure the patients didn’t run from the authorities because that may land them into troubles they didn’t bargain for. It will be good to verify the provided information to be sure the patients are not playing a fast one on the officials.

  • Publish Pictures and Data

This may sound harsh but as it is said, desperate times call for desperate measures. This wouldn’t have been considered if not because of the threat the runaway patients posed to themselves and to others. Here, the pictures and the data of the positive cases that flee from home after samples have been collected and that of those that escaped from isolation centres should be made public if they fail to show up after a given period. This way, every member of the community, and beyond, will help in fishing them out. This measure will also discourage these people from running off because no one will want his face plastered all over the social media for something like this.

All in all, these people need to be sensitised. They need to understand that Coronavirus is not the end of the world. They need to believe that the government is not using them to inflate figures. They need to trust the government.

February 2020 Scorecard for Telcos in Nigeria

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As coronavirus continues to exert ravenous might on the economy, the telecommunication sector appears immune to its strains. The number of subscribers to telcos in Nigeria is rising even with limited freedom that has impacted many businesses. There has been a significant increase in the number of internet and call networks’ subscribers. The report for the month of February showed that the increase started early in the year.

According to the data from the Nigerian Communication Commission (NCC), the number of subscribers rose to 187 million in February. The number indicated eight percent year-on-year increase considering the 173.28 million subscribers at the same time in 2019.

There were a total of 1.4 million additions to the customer base of the telecommunication industry in the month of February given that the telcos recorded 185.74 million in January. Internet users also surged by 15 percent, increasing from 114,725,357 in February 2019 to 131,647,895 in February 2020.

Among the telcos, MTN Nigeria leads with 1.7 million new subscribers to command a total of 72.47 million users.

Airtel gained 490,389 new subscribers to reach a total of 50.49 million users. On the other hand, Globacom added 48,798 new subscribers to book its place behind Airtel with a total of 51.8 million customers in February.

9mobile lost 913,733 subscribers in February, making it the only GSM company to lose customers within that period. Its total subscribers dropped to 12.24 million.

MTN leads with a wide margin even though it lost 1,058 subscribers through the Visafone spectrum. It maintains its place as the largest network operator in Nigeria with 38.73 percent market share.

Globacom took the second place with 27.68 percent market share while Airtel clinched the third place with 26.98 percent market share. 9mobile remained at the fourth place with 6.54 percent market share.

On internet users, Globacom gained the highest number for the month of February with 1.75 million subscribers to record a total of 30.95 million.

MTN mobile internet subscribers’ base expanded to 56.49 million in the month of February, an addition of 960.814 new users from the 55.53 million in June last year. However, the South African company lost 1,378 users on its Visafone subsidiary, bringing the number of new subscribers down to a total of 88,818.

Airtel recorded 670,474 new users for the month of February to make a total of 36.17 million users when merged with the 35.5 million internet subscribers it recorded in January.

However, 9mobile incurred loss of subscribers also in mobile internet service. The company’s mobile internet subscribers nosedived from 8.04 million in January to 7.94 million in February, a 96,220 loss in the number of users in one month.

9Mobile’s struggle to keep up with the pace has been attributed to the bullying dominance of MTN, Airtel and Globacom. It was the main reason its parent company, Etisalat exited the country as the company was in the verge of liquidation and was about to be seized by creditors. The exit of Etisalat offered a lifeline to 9mobile as it gave opportunity to indigenous investors to buy into the company.

However, the domineering presence of the “big three” has continued to intimidate 9mobile. As it is the case with businesses in other sectors in Nigeria, subscribers always go to where the crowd is, unless there is a compelling change to attract them to the underdog. 9mobile tried to pull off the magic through promos but it could only entice a few who ported as soon as it no longer served.

The big deal lies in efficient services like the 4G roll out that ensures improved data services for subscribers. Nevertheless, financial constraints stymied 9Mobile’s aim to compete with the “big three” as they flex their financial muscle on infrastructural upgrade of their network systems. The 4G roll out alone attracted a large number of users to the other operators. Apart from that, the expansion of their network coverage to places where it has not been, especially rural areas helped to increase the number of voice communication users.

The recent data is an indication that 9mobile is still under pressure to catch up in the subscribers race. And it may take a holistic approach to the existing strategy for the needed growth to take effect.

However, the constant growth in the telecom sector even in the face of global economic turmoil presents Nigeria with the opportunity to close the gap of the unbanked using fintech. Experts have called on the Central Bank of Nigeria to issue licenses to network operators to enable them to provide banking services to a wider range of people in Nigeria.

Economic Structures, Systems and Pandemics

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The contemporary world in which we live is an ever-changing ever-dynamic globe. Things are happening at breathtaking pace, while social players try to adapt to these changes. In order to keep pace with developments, human beings have devised ways and methods by which to live and operate. The fundamentals of social existence suggests that every being is a social animal, and according to Charles Darwin’s theoretical framework, it is a matter of survival of the fittest and those without the strength and were withal to stay fit and alive naturally go into extinction. Modern societies operate on two models that may be classified into collectivism and individualism – concepts that were explicated by 18th century philosophers like Emile Durkheim and Herbert Spencer. At a basic level, individuals make up the society but they lack capacity to exist in isolation, which is where the collective capacity comes in.

From time immemorial, the ability to ensure that society keeps functioning is vested in various institutions, with a critical one being that of government. The government exists to organize the collective basis of our lives with a framework from which every member of society draws benefits and security for sustenance and prolonged existence. Governments in modern states have this in mind when that responsibility is bestowed upon them by whatever means deemed appropriate; either through democratic elections or through forceful takeovers. This institution is what empowers other lesser institutions to function in an efficient manner and the aggregation of these structures is what creates the overall social system. It is within this system that members find direction and support, while pursuing their individual goals and ideals. A functional social system fosters a sense of belonging in the minds of the members, which leads to a certain degree of trust on a long run.

Coming down to Africa, and bringing it closer home, we see the reflections of some of these aforementioned ideals. Having been under colonial rule and subsequent independence for well over half a century ago, it would take some real moment of hesitation to affirm that we have what can be called a functional social system in Nigeria. In every segment of our society, one is able to see the obvious gaps in efficiency and optimum operation of most institutions within this system. With over 200 million people- based on latest United Nations data (an equivalent of 2.64% of total world population) while over 60% are youths and a staggering unemployment rate of around 20%, there has never been a better time for drastic changes to take place than now.  

A New Pandemic

The current global pandemic in form of COVID-19 has revealed a significant level of functionality or shortcoming in the capacity of different societies all over the world. In the history of pandemics, the Spanish flu of 1918 is described as one of the deadliest in the modern era, killing about 50 million people worldwide, with almost 500 million people infected. Its impact on Nigeria saw the death of about 500,000 citizens nationwide, with a national population of just 18 million at the time. As many may be unaware, the country also went through a lockdown in the manner we are witnessing now, while the disease was being contained.

The most developed countries with the best of systems have been worn out by this pandemic as seen so far. The situation in Nigeria is also testing the capability of our existing systems to confront this challenge. Before now, it is a consensus that ours is a society of weak systems. From politics, to economics, to health and infrastructure as well as other critical sectors, these have been characterized by inefficiencies over the years, which have often let down Nigerians at crucial times. Corruption is one malady that seeps through our social structures, while maladministration is a constant bane of these institutions. As at the time of writing, total number of recorded cases in Nigeria stands at just below 3000 according to NCDC figures, with the numbers expected to rise significantly in coming days, as Nigeria is yet to reach its own peak period, according to health experts.

Furthermore, nothing indicates a defective social structure more than the absence of a central national database for the country, as the Federal Government struggles to determine whom its poorest citizens are in its bid to provide palliatives during the desperate times like this.  The absence of any kind of social security or welfare net further shows the failure of our core social systems overtime. In other countries, stimulus packages are being rolled out to support nationals and this is based on efficient and reliable database in the face of lockdowns and social (physical) distancing directives.

Distancing by Nigerians?

This then brings us to the matter of social distancing as a strategy for combating the virus. By nature, Nigerians are a very sociable people. A simple evidence of this is seen in the number of social gatherings that takes place especially on weekends across most cities in the country. Drawing from sociological theories of 19th century scholar, Emile Durkheim, one of the leading sociologists of that era, two forms of solidarity comes to mind, these are; Mechanical and Organic. These concepts help us to understand how society evolves from one stage to another and how it operates in terms of social relationships and interactions. This is especially in light of the current directive on social – more like physical – distancing.

The Mechanical solidarity describes the kind of interaction based on shared beliefs and values usually seen in traditional pre-industrial societies while the Organic type is found in more complex and advanced or industrialized societies. After a while, every society transforms into an Organic solidarity type as a result of industrialization, according to Durkheim. The concept of social distancing is a phenomenon that many Nigerians have to come to terms with for the sake of now. Traditionally, the Nigerian social structure is one based on mechanical type of solidarity, where kinship ties are strong with shared beliefs and values by all members of a society, in a structure that brings everyone including extended family members together at times.

It Takes Planning

The point being highlighted here so far is that there is a need on government’s part to create necessary social and welfare systems if success is to be achieved in enforcing measures such as social distancing and state lockdowns – a trend that has gained greater significance because of the widespread global pandemic of COVID19. When unforeseen (unfortunate) situations that pose serious threats to the survival and comfort of ordinary citizens arise, this system serves as a form of cushion and further serves as a foundation for the provision of necessary palliatives to members of the public. Unfortunately, the government of Nigeria at all levels – most depressingly, the Local Governments– have not recorded much success in this regard. In order to ensure a sustainable system in place, the first step is to have the right kind of leaders in positions of authority. These leaders must be set of people with the much-needed political will, to make tough, drastic decisions that will culminate in sweeping changes and benefit Nigerians on the long run.

The National Identity Management Commission (NIMC) has failed to achieve its primary objectives over the years, which is very worrisome. This is something that can be addressed with quality, visionary and purposeful leadership – an element that has eluded the country’s ruling class over the years. Now is the time to reflect and begin to plan because COVID-19 will surely pass but who knows when the next pandemic might be? Posterity will not forgive us if we fail to plan, we must avoid a repeat of the popular saying that “if you fail to plan, you will plan to fail”.

The Andela’s Layoffs And Industry Disintermediation

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Covid-19 is really bad. It has distorted all elements of commerce. Andela, the remote work placement company, has fired 135 workers as it works to manage the challenges arising from the virus. The CEO of the company wrote: “Like any venture backed startup, our ability to attract future investment is determined by the ratio of how quickly we grow in comparison to how much we spend to achieve that growth.” The company has raised about $181 million from  investors and is certainly well loaded. Yet, its business model may be under stress, not necessarily from competition, but from an industry evolution.

Africa-focused tech talent accelerator Andela has let go 135 employees, CEO Jeremy Johnson confirmed to TechCrunch.

Senior staff at the company — with offices in New York and four African countries — will also take salary cuts of 10% to 30%.

The compensation and staff reductions are a result of the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis and bring Andela’s  headcount down to 1,199 employees. None of Andela’s engineers were included in the layoffs.

Backed by $181 million in VC from investors that include the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, the startup’s client-base is comprised of more than 200 global companies that pay for the African developers Andela selects to work on projects.

 Like I noted in the Harvard Business Review, Africa cannot rise on the strength of pure outsourcing as the U.S. and Western Europe will use AI, robotics and improved software systems to bring disintermediation. Sure, software developers are not within that domain at the moment. Yet, there are many software development works which AI will incrementally help elite companies to do, making it unnecessary to hire many junior software developers. Those elite companies are Andela’s  core customers, and they are the ones investing massively in reducing human elements via semi- and full-automation. 

The trajectory is simple: only the most experienced and talented software developers would be needed, while the junior and inexperienced ones will be disintermediated with intelligent systems. Yes, the Andela industry is shifting rapidly, and only elite software developers, the top 20% bucket in the world, can help it. It has to discover them in order to thrive. The inexperienced developers do not cost these companies that much, and most may not want outsourcing them at scale. For them, the key pain points are the ultra-expensive experts. They would like to get those capabilities at cheaper rates.

In September last year, Andela cut 420 staff. In Q1 2020, it also reduced workers. The recent one is evidently understandable with the virus derailing economies and markets. Yet, Andela challenge may not be a virus: it has to check the business model to see if other forms of tech are competing with the workers it has available to place in companies. Largely, Andela is not cutting staff due to competition (ignore the new 135 due to Covid-19). Rather, its competition is industry shift as AI advances! We are seeing the same in the microprocessor design industry. It has to revamp its playbook and account for this shift to get to its mission. That is important as you cannot let go about 600 direct staff in 9 months, and still claim that you can change the African continent!

Comment on LinkedIn Feed

Comment #: I’m not sure how this is the ‘problem’ with or for Andela. More so, I do not see ‘improved AI, Robotics and improved software systems’ changing the metrics. These intelligent systems have everyday parts that need to be put together. Even with data science skills gravitating towards increasingly towards drag and drop, engineers still need to be hands on.

Having been through 2 Andela tests and poached by several (way too much for my liking) tech recruiters, I see Andela’s challenge as failing to read well especially US international relations one hand and the fatigue of remote development on the other hand.

Remote work has been revolutionary but it comes with high cost of time, delay due to distance (even with virtual meets, it is a significant burden) and the fact that a lot of ‘resolutions’ arise every now and then.

The number of emails for developers and data analytics/science roles I get has increased in the past months. One thing is constant: they are looking for local talents. They realize that the immigration wahala bar has been raised especially during the present administration.

My Response: Of course we see it differently. Remote work is expanding. Most U.S. companies use remote workers in India as recently they cannot come to U.S. easily. But those used are top 5-20% to reduce cost. U.S. companies are not looking to cut the costs of those earning $90k but those earning $400k. Simply, Andela has to find a $150k equivalent to replace those earning $400k on skills. That is why it has no value for many junior engineers as U.S. firms are not concerned about them. Many community colleges in U.S. after 2 years can give you $60k engineers. Apple spent $50M to mass produce them in selected community colleges few years ago. Then AI is doing some of those jobs. The issue is the elite coders who command north of $400k.

Comment #2: Prof Ndubuisi Ekekwe is there a way the software development industry in Africa at large and Nigeria by extension can develop an internal solution that is Africa based? Yes, these companies get outsourced job from the West but there are also a lot of competitions. India for example is a big one but they are also developing themselves internally and the Fortune 500’s are now opening stores locally. Though, I believe power, security, broadband, and, trust are some of the major challenges but how can we harness the human resource strength to drive growth in Africa?

My Response: Our problem is not foreign companies. Our challenge is that we do not have BUYERS. If you build it, you will find few buyers. Sure, we parade 200m people as in Nigeria but you have a national budget execution of $20 billion and your largest bank’s market cap less than $1.5B. If Andela sees buyers of its solutions in NG, it will sell to them. South Africa is the only viable at national budget of $127 billion with great institutions. If the demand improves, Africa-focus will happen.

The Andela Problem