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ORide Joins Gokada, Max in Motorbike Red Ocean – Should Startups Swim in Blue or Red Ocean?

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You might not be too familiar with those terms – blue ocean and red ocean – but I’d simplify them as I explain. Yesterday, I was reading through a post on Facebook; I’d say it was really insightful and I give kudos to the writer. He simply analysed the ride hailing market in Nigeria and how one brand takes over another brand. Matter of fact, I learnt from it because I haven’t been paying attention to the ride sharing industry in the country and I am beginning to see the positive side of it despite the fact that I had my issues and concerns about the sustainability of such an industry. Now, my mind is at rest so far.

In his article, he explained how Opera mini started ORide service with the game plan of having a huge share in the ride hailing market by tormenting the likes of Gokada and Max. I really love the strategy they implemented, and I must give kudos to them. However, he didn’t point out some cogent factors which is why I decided to write this post. From his analysis, ORide decided to charge the sum of two hundred naira for any trip around Lagos. Although, I’m not so sure if this is really true, however in such a location like Nigeria, people always want good value for cheaper prices. It happens in other countries though but Africans seem to like this a lot.

Here’s my point: ORide offers two hundred naira to a location that a startup like Gokada will charge five hundred naira. With time, you’d discover that people will quickly shift to using ORide service which will be a huge threat to the scaling of other ride hailing services. Good strategy, right?

But where’s the cash flow? You are trying to snuff out other start-ups, yet running at a loss; does it make sense? Yes, it does since ORide is owned by Opera with lots of capital. They can keep funding it from their other sources of revenue. Opera can be bleeding from that end, yet not run down, since it’s just one small arm of the company. They can continue till they own the market; then later adjust their prices.

However, this can not be possible if you’re a start-up. This post is addressed to start-ups on why it’s better to focus on a small blue ocean than dive in a red ocean.

Let me give a practical example and why I still do not see Bigi cola as a threat to Coca Cola even till date. Bigi Cola sells for a hundred naira while Coca-Cola sells for one hundred and fifty naira. It sounds quite intelligent that they used such opportunity to penetrate the market and are scaling. However, they are fighting a price war with Coca-Cola and a price war is a lost battle if you are a smaller company with lesser money.

Here’s why; Coca Cola is a big brand. Matter of fact, Coca Cola is in almost all countries in the world. They make their revenues from these countries altogether and they still penetrate more countries. Bigi Cola on the other hand is a Nigerian brand. It’s just developing in the market. Going on a price war is very risky. If they have a huge source of funding, fine, if they have other sources of revenue, fine. However, selling for hundred naira because Coca-Cola sells for one fifty over the same selling point is risky. Coca Cola can decide to go on a price war with Bigi Cola. They can reduce the price of their drinks to eighty Naira. Would it affect their brand value? Well, maybe but like I said, Africans always go for better product, cheaper quality.

Will Coca-Cola be running at a loss, definitely. However, it will be just be in Nigeria alone; they can at least balance it from other countries. The goal is to kill Bigi Cola. Will Bigi Cola want to go cheaper? Well, I don’t know how much money they do have.

Same thing with how Elon Musk started Tesla. He went on another different niche. He went for a blue ocean; uncontested all-electric car market. If you’re a startup, you don’t rush into a red ocean. Red ocean is full of competition. Your goal should be stability and cash flow not competition. How much do you have?

Did Jeff Bezos try the the low price strategy with Amazon? Yes, he did. He didn’t make money for years, he was acquiring customers. Microsoft also played monopoly. It’s possible to go heads on if you have the money. Luckily for you, you can displace the existing company or companies.

All Together

If you’re just starting, a small blue ocean is your best bet. This doesn’t mean you cannot scale in the red ocean where there are sharks and all. You might bleed to death if you don’t have what it takes to survive in the contested red ocean.

So just like ORide is trying to beat other ride hailing services, I think it has a good bet on the strategy since it has the capital and size. But that does not mean that the red ocean model can work for all startups.

Lagos Exchange’s 3rd Largest Company, Airtel Africa, Continues To Lose the ARPU Battle

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These are the largest public traded companies in Nigeria (by market cap) in order – Dangote Cement, MTN, Airtel, and Unilever. Technically, they are also the largest companies in Nigeria by valuation (I am not sure there are private ones larger than these four). MTN and Airtel have found themselves ahead of Unilever. Meanwhile, Airtel Nigeria continues to anchor Airtel Africa business which posted $132.2 net profit last quarter. When Interswitch gets in the game, it will move some places in the ranking.

Bharti Airtel’s Africa arm posted net profit of $132.2 million in the June quarter, a fall of 12.2% from the corresponding quarter of the previous year, as higher finance costs and lower gains on exceptional items offset its growth in operating profit.

It posted revenue of $795.9 million, up 6.9% year-on-year from $744.5 million, largely driven by double-digit growth in Nigeria and East Africa, but partially offset by a decline in revenue in the rest of Africa, the company said.

The revenue increase is significant for the African arm of Bharti Airtel, which battles a bruising tariff war with rival Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd at home.

Airtel Africa’s customer base stands at 99.7 million. Its average revenue per user (Arpu) was $2.7 in the June quarter.

The key data there is the ARPU which is now $2.7. Last year, it was $3 for Airtel Africa.

Yet, even though Airtel Africa made a full year profit, challenges lie ahead. Just as I have noted on MTN Nigeria which had seen its ARPU (average revenue per user) dropped from $22 (in 2005) to $4.14 in Q1 2018, Airtel Africa is even doing worse: $3 in 2017. Airtel does not break its African operation by countries; so we do not have Airtel specific Nigerian number. (9Mobile and Glo are private companies; you do not expect to know anything about their financials.)

When The President’s Tweets Become Risk Factors; The Abuja Screening

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First, do not worry that I am not writing about what they are doing in Abuja. I simply do not know where to begin. Yes, I find it offensive to allow ministerial nominees to bow and leave in Senate when we have real issues in the nation. Yet, I do not blame the Senate: why send them for confirmation without revealing their expected ministries? Practically, there is no way to assess these nominees without knowing their portfolios. But that is Nigeria!

Imagine if someone was nominated for Defense ministry – a simple question on how to protect the border would naturally follow. But with no portfolio, assessment becomes the quality of the eye contacts between ministerial nominees and the Senators.

So, I go to America. If you are a risk manager, is there a likelihood that you would see the Tweet of your national president as a risk factor? This President Trump tweet sequence is fascinatingly unbelievable! Poor Google!

The president of the United States called out two of the nation’s largest tech firms in a pair of tweets this morning. Google  was the first target. The statement follows weeks of suggested investigations of the tech giant over a supposed relationship with China

 

General Electric (GE) Returns To Its Roots With Access Bank Nigeria Partnership

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When they sold GE Capital, I made it clear that GE was done: ” The new businesses are not bringing free cashflow to compensate what GE Capital was providing.” My thesis was that anyone in GE that thinks that companies buy expensive GE products because they are great has a malaria fever. Simply, most parts of the world came to GE because GE had a really good financing engine. But when GE took out the GE Capital, it then exposed its main customers to the open market financing which is never friendly to the type of things GE makes. You want me to go to a bank to get capital to finance a turbine? I am sure this country will prefer darkness because commercial banks will mess this DISCO (distribution company) up.

The summary here is that GE did not know that GE Capital was its double play for shipping those hardware solutions. Even if it was not making money via GE Capital, GE Capital was critical for most monies GE Power, GE Healthcare and other units were making. You can read the double play strategy here.

Now, it seems GE is coming back to that root: help customers buy things by making solutions more affordable. Yes, Access Bank and GE are partnering to help institutions acquire GE Healthcare solutions in Nigeria: “Access Bank and GE Healthcare  are to provide sustainable healthcare equipment financing to private healthcare providers”. GE must have negotiated better interest rates for these customers which none could have gotten directly with Access Bank.

Access Bank and GE Healthcare  are to provide sustainable healthcare equipment financing to private healthcare providers; The partnership will help the private healthcare providers to deliver access to affordable healthcare services.

GE Healthcare and Access Bank Nigeria have entered into a partnership to provide Nigeria’s Private Healthcare Providers with equipment financing. Under the partnership, borrowers will be able to secure loans of up to $800,000 negotiable, based on the customer requirement.

Access Bank will provide access to loans for eligible healthcare providers, while GE Healthcare will support the program through provision of GE healthcare equipment and technical support. The equipment under the partnership scope include Imaging Solutions including Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and Computed Tomography (CT), Ultrasound Machines and Life Care Solutions. Borrowers which qualify for loans include private healthcare providers such as hospitals, clinics, diagnostic centres and other private practices offering a broad array of services.

GE needs to scale that to have a chance of coming back. Financing is its double play which it lost when it sold GE Capital.

The Solution to the Challenges of Unemployment in Nigeria

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Unemployment in Nigeria is a big problem. There will never be a complete eradication of unemployment in Nigeria if we do not set up a system that controls our population. Population growth is a major factor that contributed to the challenges of unemployment in this country. According to the World Bank’s development indicators, as described by Daniel Graumann, in one of his articles on LinkedIn, the population of Nigeria has grown by 330% from 1960 (year of independence of Nigeria). 

The first way to address the problem of unemployment in Nigeria is by population control. I read somewhere a while back that China has adopted a policy in which a family in China is bound under the law not to born more than one child. We can also adopt this type of population control in Nigeria. The second challenge of unemployment in Nigeria is that we don’t have an effective data record system. Nigeria, unlike most developed countries, does not have effective data record system. We need to set up our country in such a way that we can have an updated record every second for every citizen of this country. 

We need to set up a system whereby our hospitals can record every childbirth into our nation’s data records system. Our data records system needs to be addressed as a matter of urgency. Another challenge of unemployment in this country is the state of poor infrastructures and lack of updated educational syllabus in our schools. As our schools still use the syllabus of the 1980s to teach our students.

The solution to this challenge is to equip our schools (primary, secondary and tertiary institutions) with updated infrastructures and syllabus. We need to equip our schools with resources that will equip our students to build themselves to the global standard. The lecturers in our tertiary institutions have to be given consistent training internationally in their respective fields and the government should sign a contract with them so that they won’t leave when they have been trained by the government. 

A contract that indicates the number of years you must use as a lecturer in your school after you might have been giving international training by the government. The challenges of unemployment in this country is not only on the government. We need to also put the blame on society. What is society’s role? Our society needs to encourage creativity and innovation. Parents need to recognize the gifts and talents in their children and build them for the future along with that gifts and talents. Parents should not enforce careers on their wards. Parents need to know how the gifts of their children can be monetized and used to solve global problems. We need to adopt global thinking and perspective in this situation. We need to incorporate a problem-solving mindset into our wards from when they are young.

    “You don’t talk of passion before making a living.” Dan Lok       

Government empowerment schemes like N-power has helped to reduce the challenges of unemployment because I can argue that there is a reduced crime rate because of this government empowerment schemes. These empowerment schemes cannot give a long term solution. Professor Ndubuisi Ekekwe wrote in one of his articles in which I agree that we should see schooling and education as a privilege and once we have the privilege we should offer the knowledge back to the society by building younger generations. A great educational system that empowers the youths to think independently and become problem solvers is one of the key solutions to this problem. 

Government intervention in addressing the problem of unemployment in this country cannot be overemphasized because it is a government that can create favorable policies and laws that will attract investors and venture capitalist to create more industries that can employ the greater percentage of our youths. The government should also set up tax-free policies for major companies so that they can absorb a larger number of graduates.

The National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) which has been in existent since the 1970s has outgrown its relevance of national integration. If you are a graduate currently serving under this scheme. You can save up money from your monthly allowance to be able to plan for tomorrow because, at the end of everything, we are responsible for what we become in life. I wasn’t able to save well during my time. Our government is really doing well by being consistent with the payment of allowances to corps members. Do not let us forget that the economic stability of a country is important to attract investors and capitalist.               

“Money runs away from an unstable society”. Goodluck Jonathan

Our government needs to work on a stable society and economy. We cannot leave out corruption as a major problem in this country. Our country needs to build a system that inhibits corruption. I have always given credit to the Ibo’s( a major tribe in eastern Nigeria) apprenticeship system that equips their children and youths to become businessmen and entrepreneurs. We can also incorporate Ibo’s system in our children instead of training our youths on formal education only. I read one article encouraging us to take up something else outside our area of expertise. Unleash your other areas of interest or talents and then commercialize or monetize.