China’s technology giant Baidu, which operates the country’s largest search engine, initiated a round of large-scale layoffs this week that is expected to hit multiple business units and run until the end of the year.

This aggressive restructuring move, confirmed by six sources briefed on the matter, follows the company’s recent report of a disappointing third-quarter net loss on November 18, underscoring the twin pressures of intensifying competition in artificial intelligence (AI) and the continued decline of its core online advertising business.

While the total, companywide number of jobs being cut could not be immediately established, the sources told Reuters the workforce reduction is internally perceived to be of a large-scale nature. The severity of the cuts is not uniform; layoff numbers vary significantly by business unit and performance ratings, with some teams facing reductions as high as 40%, according to two of the sources.

The job reductions are primarily a response to financial strain and market shifts. The layoffs follow Baidu’s second straight quarterly revenue decline, with total revenue falling 7% and the crucial online advertising revenue dropping 18% in the third quarter year-over-year. For the period, Baidu posted a substantial net loss of 11.23 billion yuan ($1.59 billion), a stark reversal from profit a year prior, primarily driven by asset impairment charges.

In response to these headwinds, the company is executing a definitive pivot by reallocating resources to high-growth, high-value areas. This means roles tied to AI and cloud computing will largely be protected, with one source noting that more resources would be directed into the AI division, signaling that long-term technological leadership remains the central ambition despite short-term profitability challenges.

Conversely, the Mobile Ecosystem Group (MEG) is expected to bear the brunt of the staff reductions, as this legacy unit is heavily exposed to the contracting online advertising market. Baidu’s workforce already stood at 35,900 at the end of last year, down from 39,800 in 2023 and 41,300 in 2022, indicating a multi-year trend of cost rationalization.

The Losing Ground in the AI Race

The deep cuts underscore Baidu’s failure to translate its multi-year, multi-billion-dollar investment in AI into a revival for its core growth. While Baidu was the first major Chinese tech firm to roll out a ChatGPT-style service, Ernie Bot, in 2023, it has struggled to maintain its early lead against agile competitors. Its large language model is now trailing offerings from rivals, including Alibaba and, notably, the fast-growing AI start-up DeepSeek.

The challenge is most apparent in user adoption figures: in September, Baidu’s Ernie Bot app recorded only 10.77 million monthly active users, significantly lower than the 150 million for ByteDance’s Doubao and 73.4 million for DeepSeek, according to AI product tracker Aicpb.com. Baidu’s attempts to gain ground through strategy shifts, including making its Ernie model open source earlier this year, have not yet closed the gap.

Nevertheless, Baidu remains committed to its AI push, focusing on embedding the technology into existing products. It states that more than half of its mobile search result pages now include AI-generated content, aiming to modernize user experience and drive future monetization.

However, this massive job reduction is part of a broader, global trend: major Chinese internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent slashed tens of thousands of jobs in 2022 following a broad regulatory crackdown, and major U.S. tech companies such as Amazon and IBM have also announced thousands of job cuts globally, making cost reduction and AI prioritization the dominant narrative across the tech sector.

Nigeria has formally launched the ECOWAS National Biometric Identity Card (ENBIC), a regional digital identity designed to streamline travel within West Africa, reinforce border management systems, and support broader economic cooperation.

The inauguration took place on Friday in Abuja under the theme, “ENBIC: Enhancing Regional Integration and Security.”

The Minister of Interior, Dr Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, said the rollout aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s push for a modern, technology-backed identity framework that supports safer borders and easier movement across the sub-region. He presented the card as a project long overdue.

“The card provides the foundation for more efficient identification across borders, a crucial component in combating insecurity,” he said, noting that although the initiative first began more than eleven years ago, it is only under the current administration that its nationwide implementation has taken shape.

Nigeria becomes the seventh ECOWAS country to fully deploy the document, joining Senegal, Guinea-Bissau, Ghana, Benin, The Gambia, and Sierra Leone.

What Nigeria is introducing replaces the handwritten ECOWAS Travel Certificate, which many officials had long considered outdated. ENBIC carries an electronic chip that stores biometric and biographical data such as photographs, fingerprints, and birth information, enabling secure identity verification at border points. The card doubles as a regional ID, a travel document, and a residence permit for citizens of the fifteen-member bloc.

The concept was adopted by ECOWAS leaders in 2014 after several years of discussion about introducing a harmonized travel and identity regime. Senegal became the first to issue the biometric card on 4 October 2016. By mid-2023, only six member states had fully deployed it, a pace experts attributed to funding challenges and uneven digital capacity across the region. Nigeria’s entry is now considered one of the most significant boosts to the project’s viability, partly due to the country’s population and volume of intra-regional travel.

Tunji-Ojo said the new card supports orderly movement and helps reduce irregular travel, which has long complicated security operations in the region. He argued that the measure also supports economic activity, especially for traders and cross-border workers who depend on easy mobility to sustain their businesses. He added that the next step would be integrating the biometric system into the Public Key Directory of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), allowing seamless verification across recognized border control systems.

“The ENBIC will support intelligence gathering and provide security agencies with reliable data needed to protect citizens,” he said.

He also noted that the new identity card reduces the strain on Nigeria’s international passport system since citizens travelling only within ECOWAS will no longer need a passport. Immigration officers have repeatedly said that heavy domestic demand for passports is partly driven by regional travel, particularly among traders who move through routes such as Seme, Jibia, and Mfum.

Tunji-Ojo added that the government is already studying the creation of a regional migration database in partnership with ECOWAS states. The proposed system takes inspiration from the Schengen Information System, which allows European states to share real-time data on travelers and flagged individuals. Nigerian officials say such a platform would help West African states coordinate responses to cross-border threats more efficiently.

Nigeria Immigration Service Comptroller-General, Kemi Nandap, described the rollout as a milestone for regional cooperation.

“The new travel document features a secure biometric system aimed at facilitating legal movement, promoting tourism, trade, and investment, while strengthening border management,” she said.

She noted that the card promises easier border processing, safer travel, and deeper economic ties within the region. Nandap also acknowledged the role of ECOWAS Ambassadors and development partners such as the UN-IOM, EU, ICMPD, GIZ, and UNIDO, along with support from Nigerian security agencies and the media.

A key part of the wider strategy

The launch of ENBIC is also tied to a broader national goal: positioning Nigeria to benefit more effectively from the African Continental Free Trade Area. AfCFTA is the continent-wide single market agreement that came into force in 2019 and began trading operations in 2021. Nigeria signed the deal in 2019 after months of internal consultations driven by concerns from manufacturers and labor groups. Since then, policymakers have consistently framed regional and continental integration as central to Nigeria’s long-term economic diversification goals.

Tinubu’s administration has been leaning toward improving mobility, identity management, and border procedures, which are essential for Nigeria to compete in a continent-wide marketplace where the free movement of goods, services, and eventually people is expected to drive new investments. Officials involved in the launch believe the new biometric identity card supports that direction by easing movement for traders, transport operators, small businesses, and service professionals—groups widely seen as the backbone of AfCFTA’s early-stage gains.

Analysts have also noted that Nigeria’s ability to attract investors under AfCFTA depends partly on predictable movement systems. Immigration officials believe ENBIC reduces friction at borders, shortens clearance times, and strengthens law-enforcement capabilities. These improvements are believed to form part of the foundation needed to accelerate trade under AfCFTA’s rules that eliminate tariffs on most goods over time and encourage cross-border supply chains.

With the rollout now underway, immigration authorities say public sensitization will be key. Officials expect a surge in enrolment once Nigerians understand how and where the card can be obtained. They also expect the card to encourage more predictable and structured movement across West Africa, aligning both with ECOWAS’ long-standing free-movement regime and Nigeria’s continental ambitions under AfCFTA.

OpenAI’s expanding reach across the global industry has become one of the defining stories of the decade, yet the company behind ChatGPT is still wrestling with one financial truth that refuses to go away: the numbers don’t add up.

According to a report by Fortune, HSBC Global Investment Research now projects that OpenAI will remain unprofitable through 2030, even as adoption spreads across nearly half of the world’s adult population and revenues soar into territory that would place it among the world’s largest tech companies.

The bank’s projection has quickly turned into one of the most consequential assessments of the AI industry this year, because it confronts the question everyone from Wall Street to Washington to Silicon Valley has tiptoed around: can generative AI ever make enough money to justify the astronomical spending required to run it?

HSBC’s semiconductor research team, led by Nicolas Cote-Colisson, updated its model after factoring in OpenAI’s new multiyear compute agreements, including a $250 billion cloud commitment with Microsoft and a $38 billion deal with Amazon. Those agreements came without new capital injections, deepening the financial strain.

Their updated conclusion is blunt. By 2030, OpenAI’s revenues are projected to exceed $213 billion. Its customer base is expected to include roughly 44% of the world’s adults, up from 10% in 2025. Yet the company will still be losing money against a wall of infrastructure costs that HSBC estimates will reach $792 billion between now and the end of the decade, with a data-center rental bill of $620 billion alone. Cumulative free cash flow remains sharply negative, leaving a funding hole of about $207 billion that OpenAI will need to fill through fresh debt, equity, or aggressive monetization.

The bank models total compute commitments rising to $1.4 trillion by 2033. OpenAI itself has referenced that same figure over an eight-year horizon. That scale has no precedent in the history of commercial technology, raising questions about the carrying capacity of the global capital markets.

The data-center electricity burden is enormous

The scale of compute OpenAI is now targeting adds a second layer of concern. The company’s goal of 36 gigawatts of compute capacity by 2030 requires a physical and electrical buildout that rivals that of a small U.S. state. One gigawatt powers roughly 750,000 homes, meaning OpenAI’s compute footprint would require electricity consumption comparable to a state between the size of Florida and Texas.

This buildout is reshaping power markets, construction timelines, real-estate valuations, and even utility-regulator planning cycles. Analysts tracking power-grid expansion say the U.S. has not faced a comparable single-industry demand surge since the rise of heavy manufacturing in the mid-twentieth century. Some energy economists now argue that the strain created by AI data centers is becoming a structural factor in future electricity pricing, something HSBC cites as a growing cost pressure on long-term compute models.

It explains why Altman’s recent comment—asked whether OpenAI could ever have “enough” compute—came out in a single exasperated word: “Enough.”

Debt markets are showing signs of AI fatigue

The other growing tension comes from the credit market. HSBC warns that debt is “possibly the most challenging avenue” for OpenAI to pursue right now. Oracle and Meta have both raised substantial amounts of debt this year to finance their own AI expansions. Those raises triggered visible market unease, including a sharp rise in Oracle’s credit default swaps, which Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett flagged as a concerning signal. Even JPMorgan strategist Michael Cembalest noted that hyperscalers traditionally funded themselves through free cash flow rather than borrowing, making the current shift unusual.

Against this backdrop, investors are starting to question whether the economics of AI data centers can support debt loads of this magnitude, especially when returns remain uncertain, and many of the industry’s leading players are years away from reliable profitability.

OpenAI’s need for continuous capital puts it in a difficult position. It cannot slow its infrastructure buildout without risking competitive disadvantage. Yet the debt markets are flashing caution, and the equity markets may balk at the size of future raises if profitability milestones remain far over the horizon.

Microsoft’s exposure is deeper than any other company’s

Microsoft sits at the center of this tension. It is OpenAI’s largest investor, biggest partner, and main cloud provider. Its $250 billion cloud agreement with OpenAI is one of the most consequential pieces of the entire arrangement, because the cost of compute expansion directly flows through Azure’s infrastructure. Microsoft’s AI strategy is now intertwined with OpenAI’s financial stability and compute demand in a way that analysts compare to a shared balance-sheet dependency.

If OpenAI stumbles, Microsoft absorbs both operational and strategic shock. Azure’s data-center buildouts are anchored to OpenAI’s growth path. Office, Windows, GitHub, and Bing integrations rely on OpenAI’s underlying models. And Microsoft’s own market valuation has been propped up in part by expectations that generative AI will drive the next decade of revenue growth. Any slowdown in OpenAI’s trajectory could hit the world’s most valuable company at multiple points simultaneously.

At the same time, Microsoft provides stability that OpenAI cannot easily replicate elsewhere. The company has the cash flow to sustain multi-hundred-billion-dollar infrastructure expansion in a way few corporations on earth can match. For now, that makes Microsoft one of OpenAI’s key lifelines, even as it carries significant exposure on its own books.

The wider productivity debate has returned with new intensity

The enormous financial strain has also revived a debate that economists have circled for years: whether the promised productivity gains from AI will ever show up in national statistics. HSBC echoed the well-known remark by Nobel laureate Robert Solow that modern economies seem able to generate computers and software everywhere except in their productivity numbers.

Some economists believe this time will be different. Harvard’s Jason Furman, quoted by Fortune, calculated recently that without data centers, U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025 would have been just 0.1%.

Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian told Fortune in August that she sees genuine structural productivity improvements emerging out of the 2020s economy, though not purely because of AI. Instead, she said that companies have been forced by post-pandemic wage inflation to redesign operations to “do more with fewer people,” replacing manual processes with scalable systems. Still, she noted that the most innovative tech firms have shifted from asset-light models to enormous capital-heavy ones, especially in data-center construction, which carries considerable financial risk.

That tension sits at the center of OpenAI’s story. The company dominates the consumer AI landscape and shapes global economic expectations, yet the productivity gains from generative AI at an industrial scale remain difficult to quantify.

The unresolved question for markets

The stakes in the next five years are unusually high. OpenAI has become the most visible avatar of an AI revolution that has swept the global economy, yet it faces one of the most daunting financial challenges any tech company has ever confronted. HSBC’s verdict—that OpenAI will still not be profitable by 2030—lands with force because it captures the contradiction at the heart of this moment: extraordinary technological progress built on a foundation of negative cash flow and soaring infrastructure costs.

The company is now asking global markets to keep funding a buildout that requires trillions of dollars, in anticipation of productivity and revenue gains that are still not proven. And the broader market, while enthusiastic, is starting to show signs of strain.

The next chapter will turn on whether OpenAI can convert its dominance into durable profit fast enough to justify a compute bill that resembles the electrical needs of a small country, financed in part by debt markets that are becoming more anxious, and stitched into the strategic core of a company—Microsoft—whose own valuation is tied to the very same gamble.