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Investors Predict $5,000 Gold as a Frenzied Rally Redraws the Global Market

By
Samuel Nwite
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0

Gold is having the kind of year that has left even the most seasoned traders blinking at their screens. The metal has surged 58.6% so far, tearing through record after record and finally punching above the once-unthinkable $4,000 threshold on Oct. 8.

That milestone now looks almost small in the rearview mirror, because a new Goldman Sachs survey, published by CNBC, shows many investors think the rally’s not only alive but barreling toward another all-time high: $5,000 by the end of 2026.

The latest sentiment check from Goldman Sachs’ Marquee platform, which polled more than 900 institutional investors between Nov. 12 and 14, captures the mood. The largest bloc, 36%, predicted that gold will extend its climb and top $5,000 per troy ounce by the close of next year. Another 33% think it will trade between $4,500 and $5,000. In total, more than 70% of institutional investors expect gold to keep rising through 2025, showing how broad the bullishness has become. Only a little over 5% see any room for a pullback toward the $3,500 to $4,000 range.

This bullish wave was already visible in live market action. Spot gold rose to a two-week high on Friday, gaining 0.45% to settle at $4,175.50. Futures rose 0.53% to $4,187.40. Traders tied the move to growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may lean toward rate cuts, a shift that tends to weaken the dollar and enhance gold’s appeal.

Why the Market Is So Buoyant

The survey shows consensus around the main forces powering gold’s surge. A hefty 38% of respondents pointed to central bank accumulation as the biggest driver, while 27% cited rising fiscal concerns. And it’s hard to ignore how synchronized this buying has been. Global central banks have snapped up gold this year at a pace that underscores its role as a reserve asset with unique qualities: deep liquidity, no default risk, and a politically neutral profile that neither aligns nor antagonizes major blocs.

This central bank appetite sits alongside a broad wave of private-sector demand that stretches from retail investors trying to shelter savings from inflation to hedge funds positioning for geopolitical uncertainty and a weakening dollar. Gold’s traditional status as a crisis hedge has been pulled into service again, and the backdrop of overlapping global tensions has made the metal feel almost like a compulsory holding.

Phil Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said on CNBC’s “Power Lunch” on Nov. 20 that the trend still has room to run. He pointed out that many countries are wrestling with slowing growth while inflation remains stubborn. In his words, “The global economic outlook continues to support gold.”

The Rush Into Mining Stocks

Investors who don’t want to buy the metal directly are looking at miners as a leveraged bet on the rally. Blue Whale Capital’s Stephen Yiu told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” earlier this month that he is backing Newmont, the world’s largest gold miner, as part of his strategy.

Even in corners of the market where skepticism normally dominates, the mood is shifting. Muddy Waters founder Carson Block, known for his short-selling campaigns, surprised the Sohn London investment conference crowd with a rare long call — a public endorsement of Canadian junior miner Snowline Gold. Block argued that Snowline was emerging as an attractive takeover target at a time when consolidation in the sector was picking up.

What a $5,000 Outlook Really Says

A price target like $5,000 is bold, but the conviction behind it has grown out of a multi-layered global environment: jittery fiscal positions in major economies, expectations of easier monetary policy, cross-border tensions that have reshaped commodity flows, and a renewed appetite from central banks that are treating gold as insurance rather than an optional reserve.

The metal’s rise has drawn in a wider mix of investors than at any point since the early 2010s. Hedge funds are positioning around macro risk. Middle-class savers are buying small quantities as a store of value. Governments are adding to vaults as they balance currency exposure. And miners are back in the headlines.

The rally is not just about price action. It is becoming a story about confidence, caution, and the shifting architecture of the global economy. And judging by the survey numbers, investors believe the story will continue into 2026, possibly all the way up to that $5,000 mark now hanging in the distance like an inevitability rather than a long shot.

Global Monetary Easing Hits 35-Year High—So Why Is Bitcoin Still Flat?

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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Central banks worldwide have unleashed an unprecedented wave of monetary easing, the most aggressive in 35 years.

Over 90% of global central banks have either cut rates or held them steady for 12 consecutive months, resulting in 316 rate cuts from 2023 through early 2025—surpassing the 313 cuts during the 2008–2010 financial crisis.

This liquidity injection has expanded the global M2 money supply by about 8% year-to-date, reaching nearly $140 trillion, with the U.S. M2 alone hitting a record $22.21 trillion.

Factors driving this include cooling inflation now slowing in 17 G20 countries, resilient growth projections, and policy pivots like the Fed ending quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1, injecting $50 billion into repo markets last week alone. Additional boosts come from China’s $900 billion yuan stimulus, Japan’s $100 billion yen package, and Europe’s easing via the ECB.

Historically, such coordinated easing floods risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin showing a 0.94 correlation to global M2 growth from 2013–2024.

Yet, as of November 29, 2025, Bitcoin trades flat around $91,000–$92,000, up just 1% year-to-date—its least volatile year ever, with compressed price action and a four-year CAGR at an all-time low.

Why Bitcoin Remains Flat Amid the Liquidity Boom

This apparent disconnect isn’t a sign of weakness but a structural evolution in Bitcoin’s market dynamics. Bitcoin doesn’t react instantly to liquidity surges; it typically trails global M2 increases by 60–70 days as capital filters through traditional systems before reaching high-risk assets like crypto.

In 2020, M2 surged in March, but Bitcoin’s breakout came in December. Current decoupling began mid-2025, suggesting a rally could materialize by late 2025 or early 2026. Analysts like those at CryptoQuant note this lag aligns with past cycles.

Overbuilt leverage $94 billion in futures open interest amplified a narrative-driven selloff when Fed expectations shifted from aggressive cuts 90% probability for December to caution now ~40%. This triggered $20 billion in liquidations, cascading into ETF outflows and long-term holder (LTH) distributions.

$1.8 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows since November 12; LTHs offloaded 815,000 BTC in 30 days profits from $40K–$80K buys. Open interest dropped to $68 billion, but more needs to clear for stabilization. With real yields positive short-term Treasuries at 4–5%, capital prefers “safe” yields over Bitcoin’s zero-yield profile. Government debt rollovers U.S. trillions due and regulatory nudges toward safe assets act as a liquidity “tax,” soaking up marginal dollars.

U.S. debt exceeds $35 trillion; institutions 71% owning crypto treat BTC lending yields as riskier than T-bills post-FTX/Celsius. This shifts Bitcoin from “leveraged liquidity bet” to macro hedge correlation to SOFR: 0.52; to global M2: -0.046.

ETFs brought $61.9 billion in inflows YTD, but they enable quick exits during uncertainty like U.S.-China tensions, government shutdown draining $85 billion from GDP. This creates “institutional-scale sell liquidity,” but also absorption—preventing 80% crashes like 2018/2022.

Bitcoin’s ETF era killed the boom/bust cycle; volatility is structurally lower as retail speculation yields to global institutions. On-chain HODL waves at ATH, illiquid supply up, hashrate robust. Pi Cycle and MVRV indicators show mid-cycle, not top.

Macro Narrative Repricing

Bitcoin’s 215% rally to $126K in 2025 was fueled by easing + ETF hype, but stubborn inflation September CPI at 3.0% and a strong dollar environment repriced it downward. Geopolitics adds risk-off sentiment.

November’s 20% drop erased YTD gains, mirroring growth-sensitive assets. Yet, shutdown correlation to BTC is -0.4; resolution could spark $112K rebound if CPI stays below 3.2%.

In essence, this isn’t a “systems failure” but a healthy reset: leverage unwinds, weak hands exit, and Bitcoin consolidates in a maturing market. Sentiment is at “extreme fear,” but fundamentals scream strength—Bitcoin now acts as a liquidity exhaust valve, decoupled from equities and primed for when easing truly flows into risk assets.

The four-year halving cycle is obsolete; this is now a liquidity-driven regime. With QT ending, stablecoin supply poised to expand, and tokenized assets drawing institutional flows, 2026 could see a “melt-up” as macro expansion unleashes parabolic moves.

Favorable setups include: CPI <3.0% + shutdown resolution ? $112K by December. Neutral (50%): Consensus 3.1% CPI ? $100K–$105K range. Bear (15%): CPI >3.2% + extension ? $95K test.

Bitcoin’s “boring” phase is the calm before the storm—institutional plumbing is built, liquidity is turning, and history shows it always wins. As one analyst put it: “Bear markets don’t start on the precipice of global liquidity expansion.” Position for the expansion, not the noise.

German Parliament Approves Record-Breaking 2026 Budget Amid Economic Challenges

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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Germany’s Bundestag, lower house of parliament voted to pass the federal budget for 2026, marking a significant departure from the country’s long-standing fiscal conservatism.

The budget totals €524.5 billion ~$607.5 billion in spending, financed in part by substantial new borrowing that exceeds all but one prior year in post-war history. The vote passed narrowly with 322 in favor and 252 against, reflecting ongoing political tensions within Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s coalition of the Christian Democrats (CDU), Christian Social Union (CSU), and Social Democrats (SPD).

€524.5 billion, including €58.3 billion in core investments. Core budget borrowing: €97.9–98 billion in net new debt, adhering to the constitutional “debt brake” limit of 0.35% of GDP.

Over €180 billion when including special funds exempt from debt rules—the second-highest level ever, surpassed only by €215 billion during the 2021 COVID-19 crisis.

Total Investments: €126.7 billion, a 10% increase from 2025, boosted by off-budget funds via €500 billion infrastructure fund and defense exemptions. This budget emerges against a backdrop of economic stagnation, with Germany’s GDP contracting for two consecutive years—the first such downturn since the 2008 financial crisis.

Chancellor Merz’s government, formed after the 2025 elections, has prioritized revival through massive public investment, breaking from the “black zero” era of balanced budgets under predecessors like Angela Merkel.

An exemption from debt rules allows unlimited borrowing for the Bundeswehr, responding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and NATO commitments. This draws from a €500 billion special defense fund. A parallel €500 billion fund targets decaying roads, railways, and climate protection projects, addressing long-term underinvestment.

Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD) emphasized the need to counter global challenges, including energy costs and trade disruptions, with investments expected to create jobs and spur growth.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts Germany’s deficit rising to 4% of GDP by 2027, with public debt climbing to 68%—still the lowest in the G7. Merz hailed it as a “warm-up” for bolder reforms, while Klingbeil warned of a €30 billion shortfall in 2027.

The Greens decried it as “shunting expenditures” via funds, the far-right AfD called it a “financial coup d’état” burdening future generations, and the Left Party opposed debt-financed rearmament.

In the context of Germany’s newly approved 2026 federal budget, the “defense fund” primarily refers to the Sondervermögen Bundeswehr, a €100 billion one-time allocation established in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

This fund is exempt from the constitutional “debt brake” rules, allowing debt-financed spending on military modernization. It is distinct from the separate €500 billion Sondervermögen Infrastruktur und Klimaneutralität which focuses on civilian projects like roads, railways, and renewable energy but can indirectly support defense-related infrastructure.

The fund has enabled a historic surge in defense spending, with total outlays reaching €108.2 billion in 2026—more than double the 2025 level and equivalent to about 2.8% of GDP, exceeding NATO’s interim target for the year.

This positions Germany as Europe’s largest defense spender, surpassing France and the UK combined in absolute terms. Created under Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s “Zeitenwende” policy to bolster alliance and national defense capabilities.

It finances complex, multi-year procurement projects for the Bundeswehr, addressing decades of underinvestment. The fund is fully committed by 2027, with €28 billion already spent by mid-2025.

For 2026, €25.5 billion flows from the fund, complementing €82.7 billion from the core defense budget. This brings total defense spending to €108.2 billion, with a focus on procurement, €47.88 billion total, including €25.51 billion from the fund. Up 32% from 2025 (€62.3 billion); covers personnel (10,000 new soldiers + 2,000 civilians), operations, and readiness.

Total defense spending ~2.8% of GDP; enables NATO commitments and Ukraine aid €11.5 billion total, including €1 billion/month. Includes tanks, ships, aircraft; €325 billion in long-term commitments through 2041. Critical for restocking after Ukraine support; €12.67 billion from core budget.

The fund’s spending contributes to Germany’s overall €180+ billion in new debt for 2026 second-highest post-war, driven by economic stagnation and geopolitical threats. Mid-term plans project defense outlays rising to €117.2 billion in 2026 and €161.8 billion by 2029 with €380 billion borrowable for defense through 2029.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil hail it as essential for deterrence against Russia and NATO leadership. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius emphasized closing capability gaps. Opposition calls it a “shadow budget” risking future fiscal burdens; Greens decry bypassing debt rules.

Expected to spur 1.3% GDP growth in 2026 via jobs in defense industry (e.g., Rheinmetall) and supply chains, though IMF warns of rising deficits 4% of GDP by 2027. This fund marks a pivotal shift from Germany’s post-Cold War restraint, aiming to make the Bundeswehr Europe’s strongest conventional force by 2030.

The Bundesrat review is pending but expected to pass. The budget now heads to the Bundesrat— upper house for review, but passage is expected. This move signals a potential shift in Europe’s fiscal landscape, with implications for the EU’s stability pact and Germany’s role as the bloc’s economic anchor.

Germany’s Inflation Rate Stuck at 2.3%

Germany’s latest economic indicators for November 2025 paint a picture of stability with underlying pressures. Inflation held steady, while the labor market showed a modest improvement.

The year-on-year inflation rate, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), remained unchanged at 2.3% in November 2025 compared to November 2024. This is based on preliminary data from the Federal Statistical Office, with final figures due on December 12.

Services prices rose by 3.7%, exerting upward pressure. Energy prices fell 0.1% year-on-year, providing some offset. Food prices increased by 1.8%. Excluding volatile food and energy, the rate ticked down slightly to 2.7% from 2.8% in October, signaling persistent underlying pressures.

For EU comparability, this stood at 2.6% year-on-year, up from 2.3% in October—driven partly by package holidays and fuel costs. Inflation has hovered around the ECB’s 2% target but shows signs of stickiness, influenced by wage growth and global energy dynamics.

Economists note this could delay ECB rate cuts. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dipped to 6.1% in November 2025, down from 6.2% in October. This marks a slight improvement, with the number of unemployed rising by just 1,000 far below the expected 5,000 increase.

Approximately 2.7 million employment stagnated, with virtually no net change +2,000 jobs, or 0.0%. Job vacancies fell to 624,000, down 44,000 from a year ago, reflecting subdued labor demand.

Despite the dip, the labor market remains soft amid economic slowdown. The German Labor Agency highlights ongoing challenges for companies, with forecasts pointing to over 3 million unemployed by early 2026 if growth doesn’t accelerate.

Steady inflation above the ECB target contrasts with a cooling labor market, potentially supporting a cautious monetary policy stance. Retail sales fell 0.3% month-on-month in October, underscoring weak consumer momentum.

Germany’s economy is projected to grow by just 0.2% in 2025, with 1.3% expected in 2026—bolstered by planned infrastructure and defense spending under Chancellor Friedrich Merz. However, global trade tensions and energy costs remain risks.

For Households/Businesses: Lower energy bills offer relief, but rising service costs (e.g., rents, travel) could squeeze budgets. Job seekers may face a tougher market in manufacturing and construction.

Rate cuts become less likely in December 2025 or Q1 2026. Markets now price only ~60 bps of cuts until mid-2026 down from 100 bps a few weeks ago. German 10-year Bund yields already rose ~15 bps since the data.

Sticky services inflation + strong wage settlements 2025 collective agreements ~4–5% keep core inflation above 2% well into 2026 ? ECB likely stays at 2–2.25% terminal rate longer than expected. Real wages continue to rise, but high services inflation eats ~60% of the gain. Private consumption stays weak.

If wage growth moderates only slowly, purchasing power improves from mid-2026 onward, supporting the expected consumption-led recovery. Higher-than-expected interest costs on new debt + weaker growth reduce fiscal space.

The new Merz government will struggle to finance both the €100 bn special funds and promised tax relief without breaching the debt brake in 2026. Risk of political friction inside the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition over spending priorities; possible mini-budget crisis in autumn 2026.

Profit margins remain under pressure unit labour costs +4% yoy. Companies continue to freeze hiring and cut investment. Manufacturing recession likely extends into H1 2026; only defense-related and green-tech sectors show robust order books.

Unemployment will keep drifting higher in absolute terms during the winter, but the rate stays in the 6.0–6.4% range. Underemployment and short-time work rise again. Structural mismatch worsens. Risk of 3+ million unemployed by early 2027 if no growth impulse materialises.

Rents rise 5–6% in 2025 ? keeps core inflation elevated. Construction activity remains in depression –30% vs 2021; new housing supply falls far short of demand. Continued strong upward pressure on rents in cities; home-price correction slows but does not reverse.

Weak eurozone demand + potential new U.S. tariffs under a possible second Trump administration in 2025 hit the export engine. China slowdown adds to the drag. Germany’s current-account surplus shrinks further from 8% to ~4–5% of GDP by 2027, reducing the traditional growth buffer.

The hoped-for strong rebound in 2026 now hinges almost entirely on (1) fiscal stimulus actually being spent quickly and (2) the ECB eventually cutting rates more aggressively once services inflation finally cracks. Both are uncertain.

Most forecasters have therefore downgraded 2025 GDP growth to 0.0–0.3% and only a modest 1.0–1.3% in 2026. Recessions risks remain elevated. These figures align with a broader eurozone trend, where inflation is expected at 2.1% for November.

Post-Thanksgiving Market Pattern Returns as RSI and MACD Flip Green

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

The phrase “Post-Thanksgiving market pattern returns as RSI and MACD flip green” captures a timely observation from the crypto and broader stock markets as of November 29, 2025.

This refers to a recurring seasonal bullish trend observed in late November and December, where reduced trading volumes around the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday often coincide with momentum recoveries.

In 2025, this pattern has materialized prominently in the cryptocurrency sector, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounding from oversold levels and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossing into positive territory—key “green” signals for traders indicating potential upward continuation.

While the pattern has historical precedents in both crypto and equities, this year’s iteration is amplified by dovish Federal Reserve expectations and year-end optimism. Historically, U.S. stock markets exhibit modest gains during Thanksgiving week averaging ~0.5% for major indices since 2000, driven by light volumes, holiday sentiment, and portfolio rebalancing.

This often extends into the “Santa Claus rally” last week of December and first week of January, with S&P 500 returns averaging 1.4–1.5% and positive outcomes ~75% of the time dating back to 1928. In crypto, a similar “hidden” pattern emerged in 2022 and 2023.

Post-Thanksgiving exhaustion of sellers led to sharp reversals, with RSI normalizing and MACD turning bullish after November lows. In 2025, Bitcoin and major altcoins bottomed earlier in November amid forced selling. By Thanksgiving, the average RSI across top assets rose from extreme lows <30, oversold into neutral/bullish territory >50.

Simultaneously, the normalized MACD flipped positive for the first time since early November, signaling momentum recovery. This mirrors 2022–2023 conditions, where taker CVD cumulative volume delta neutralized, ending liquidation cascades.

Equities posted their strongest Thanksgiving week in 13 years, with the S&P 500 up ~1.5% mid-week and Nasdaq gaining 4.2%. All major indices closed green for the full holiday week—the first time in 9 years—fueled by tech/AI outperformance and small-cap rotation. VIX volatility normalized to 17.2% below its 12-month average, unwinding prior hedges.

Bullish shift from oversold; room for upside without overbought (>70). 2022/2023: Rebounded post-seller exhaustion, leading to 20–30% BTC gains into December. Histogram +7.29; line crossed above signal. Positive momentum flip; bullish divergence emerging.

2022/2023: Turned green after November lows, correlating with neutral CVD and risk-on flows. Holiday retail spending hit records $6.4B online on Thanksgiving, +5.3% YoY, boosting consumer cyclicals. Fed rate-cut odds surged to 80–85% for December from 30% last week, easing macro fears.

In stocks, S&P 500 futures broke above the 50-day MA ~6,801 resistance, with 72% breadth advancers vs. decliners. Crypto’s flip aligns with Bitcoin dominance during liquidity crunches, per CryptoQuant data.

Low holiday volumes ~50–70% of normal amplify drifts but reduce conviction—Monday opens could see a -0.26% “Cyber Monday drawdown” before Santa rally resumption. Broader factors like upcoming jobs data in December 6 or FOMC in December 10 could disrupt.

This pattern suggests a “platform” for risk assets into year-end, with crypto potentially targeting 20–30% upside echoing prior years and stocks eyeing S&P 6,953 ATH resistance.

Traders should monitor for sustained volume post-holiday; a close above key MAs would confirm. For conservative plays, use MACD/RSI confluence with stops below recent lows like BTC $85K support.

As crypto analysts on X noted, “Positioning is now clean… entering the strongest seasonal window.” Year-end flows favor longs, but scale in gradually amid chop. This setup underscores why holidays aren’t just for turkey—they’re for spotting momentum flips.

Stablecoin Market Capitalization Exceeds $303 Billion

By
Paul Ugbede Godwin
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0

As of late November 2025, the total stablecoin market cap stands well above this threshold, ranging from approximately $303 billion to $310 billion across major tracking platforms.

This marks a significant milestone, reflecting continued growth in adoption for payments, DeFi, and cross-border transactions despite some recent monthly fluctuations.

USDT dominance at 60.39%; includes all chains. Slight daily uptick; covers fiat, crypto, and algorithmic types. First monthly decline in 26 months from October peak; down $4.54B overall. Stagnation after Q3 surge; implications for Ethereum liquidity. USDT/USDC hold ~93% share; total exceeds $260B earlier in month.

The market cap first crossed $280 billion in late October 2025 during a Q3 rally, driven by institutional inflows and regulatory clarity in regions like Hong Kong and Singapore. By November, it peaked near $310 billion before a minor pullback tied to broader crypto market cooling.

Tether (USDT) leads with ~$184 billion (60% share), followed by USD Coin (USDC) at ~$73–$75 billion. Others like DAI and Ethena USDe contribute smaller but growing shares. November saw the first monthly dip since 2022, but daily/weekly gains suggest resilience. Trading volumes hit $1.48 trillion mid-month, underscoring utility.

This growth signals stablecoins’ maturation as “digital dollars,” with over 90% USD-pegged. However, risks like peg deviations and regulatory scrutiny (e.g., U.S. bills for oversight) persist.

Drivers of the Stablecoin Surge

The stablecoin market cap’s climb past $300 billion in late 2025 peaking at ~$314 billion in October before stabilizing around $305–$310 billion marks a continuation of 47% year-to-date growth, outpacing 2024’s expansion.

This isn’t mere speculation—it’s fueled by structural shifts in finance, regulation, and tech. The U.S. GENIUS Act established federal standards for reserves, audits, and transparency, boosting confidence and enabling institutional entry.

Similar frameworks in the EU and Asia, plus softer stances from China and the Bank of England, have unlocked compliant innovation. Tether’s planned USAT launch and Circle’s NYSE debut with CRCL stock up 750% exemplify this.

Big players like JPMorgan (JPM Coin for settlements), Visa (USDC integration), Citigroup, Stripe (acquiring Bridge), Amazon, Walmart, and Societe Generale (USDCV on Ethereum/Solana) are piling in. This has driven ~$44 billion in Q3 inflows alone, with stablecoins now handling $19.4 billion in payments YTD.

Yield-bearing variants— Ethena’s USDe, up to $14 billion add passive income via RWAs and DeFi, capturing 4.5% of the market. Perpetual trading volumes hit $1 trillion monthly in September, with stablecoins as the liquidity backbone—USDT and USDC dominate 83–90% of the space.

Cross-border remittances and B2B payments surged 50x to $6.4 billion by August, thanks to low-fee chains like Tron $75.7 billion in USDT and Solana 70% growth to $13.7 billion. Active wallets jumped 53% to 30 million, signaling real adoption over hoarding.

Amid Bitcoin’s climb to $119K in earlier November and Ethereum’s 13% Q3 gain, stablecoins act as “dry powder”—a safe haven during volatility —USD fluctuations before rotating into alts. Non-USD fiat stables rose 30% to $533 million, diversifying pegs.

These factors create a virtuous cycle: clearer rules attract capital, which boosts volumes, enhancing utility and yields. Hitting $300+ billion elevates stablecoins to “systemically relevant” status—rivaling major U.S. money market funds or regional banks, and now ~7–8% of total crypto cap.

This shift has profound ripple effects. Stablecoins are reshaping infrastructure: daily volumes top $3.1 trillion surpassing Visa, nearing ACH, enabling 24/7, low-cost settlements. Could capture 12% of cross-border flows by 2026. B2B payments at 63% of $10B+ monthly volume; remittances/remittances via Tron/Ethereum; AI agents auto-hedging/yield-optimizing with stables.

Fuels $68.9B Ethereum TVL; acts as “internet’s money layer” for dApps, derivatives, and RWAs. Projections: $400B–$1T cap by 2026–2028. USDe/DAI growth; perpetuals boom; 259 active stables doubled since 2024.

88% of users now focus on non-trading savings, conversions. Ends USDT/USDC duopoly as fintechs launch rivals for yield capture. JPM/Circle real-time settlements; BlackRock’s BUIDL for tokenized yields; Noble/Plume integrations.

Market signal Indicates bullish capital flows—$300B isn’t “idle” but active, potentially igniting the next cycle. 44% Ethereum stable growth; 70% Solana surge; “programmable payments” layer. As scale grows, so does oversight—GENIUS Act mandates could squeeze non-compliant issuers. Global risks include peg breaks or AML gaps, as noted in recent SCMP analysis.

Recent 1.5% November dip first monthly decline in 26 months ties to broader crypto cooling; Ethereum feels it most via TVL stagnation. Over-reliance on USD pegs exposes to fiat volatility. At $300B+, failures could echo Terra 2022; overlooked crypto-finance risks loom.

Overall, this surge cements stablecoins as crypto’s killer app—driving efficiency and inclusion while pressuring TradFi to adapt. If trends hold, expect $500B+ by 2027, but watch for policy pivots.

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