The phrase “Post-Thanksgiving market pattern returns as RSI and MACD flip green” captures a timely observation from the crypto and broader stock markets as of November 29, 2025.
This refers to a recurring seasonal bullish trend observed in late November and December, where reduced trading volumes around the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday often coincide with momentum recoveries.
In 2025, this pattern has materialized prominently in the cryptocurrency sector, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounding from oversold levels and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossing into positive territory—key “green” signals for traders indicating potential upward continuation.
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While the pattern has historical precedents in both crypto and equities, this year’s iteration is amplified by dovish Federal Reserve expectations and year-end optimism. Historically, U.S. stock markets exhibit modest gains during Thanksgiving week averaging ~0.5% for major indices since 2000, driven by light volumes, holiday sentiment, and portfolio rebalancing.
This often extends into the “Santa Claus rally” last week of December and first week of January, with S&P 500 returns averaging 1.4–1.5% and positive outcomes ~75% of the time dating back to 1928. In crypto, a similar “hidden” pattern emerged in 2022 and 2023.
Post-Thanksgiving exhaustion of sellers led to sharp reversals, with RSI normalizing and MACD turning bullish after November lows. In 2025, Bitcoin and major altcoins bottomed earlier in November amid forced selling. By Thanksgiving, the average RSI across top assets rose from extreme lows <30, oversold into neutral/bullish territory >50.
Simultaneously, the normalized MACD flipped positive for the first time since early November, signaling momentum recovery. This mirrors 2022–2023 conditions, where taker CVD cumulative volume delta neutralized, ending liquidation cascades.
Equities posted their strongest Thanksgiving week in 13 years, with the S&P 500 up ~1.5% mid-week and Nasdaq gaining 4.2%. All major indices closed green for the full holiday week—the first time in 9 years—fueled by tech/AI outperformance and small-cap rotation. VIX volatility normalized to 17.2% below its 12-month average, unwinding prior hedges.
Bullish shift from oversold; room for upside without overbought (>70). 2022/2023: Rebounded post-seller exhaustion, leading to 20–30% BTC gains into December. Histogram +7.29; line crossed above signal. Positive momentum flip; bullish divergence emerging.
2022/2023: Turned green after November lows, correlating with neutral CVD and risk-on flows. Holiday retail spending hit records $6.4B online on Thanksgiving, +5.3% YoY, boosting consumer cyclicals. Fed rate-cut odds surged to 80–85% for December from 30% last week, easing macro fears.
In stocks, S&P 500 futures broke above the 50-day MA ~6,801 resistance, with 72% breadth advancers vs. decliners. Crypto’s flip aligns with Bitcoin dominance during liquidity crunches, per CryptoQuant data.
Low holiday volumes ~50–70% of normal amplify drifts but reduce conviction—Monday opens could see a -0.26% “Cyber Monday drawdown” before Santa rally resumption. Broader factors like upcoming jobs data in December 6 or FOMC in December 10 could disrupt.
This pattern suggests a “platform” for risk assets into year-end, with crypto potentially targeting 20–30% upside echoing prior years and stocks eyeing S&P 6,953 ATH resistance.
Traders should monitor for sustained volume post-holiday; a close above key MAs would confirm. For conservative plays, use MACD/RSI confluence with stops below recent lows like BTC $85K support.
As crypto analysts on X noted, “Positioning is now clean… entering the strongest seasonal window.” Year-end flows favor longs, but scale in gradually amid chop. This setup underscores why holidays aren’t just for turkey—they’re for spotting momentum flips.