The U.S. Supreme Court’s 6-3 decision Friday, striking down President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad import tariffs, has significantly diminished his negotiating leverage ahead of a high-stakes summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in April, analysts said Monday.
The ruling — which declared IEEPA does not authorize unilateral tariffs absent a specific, imminent foreign threat — removes a central pillar of Trump’s “America First” trade agenda and strengthens Beijing’s position as it prepares to press Washington on Taiwan, technology export controls, and remaining duties.
Chief Justice John Roberts ruled that IEEPA was intended for targeted emergency responses, not indefinite trade policy. The decision invalidates tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% imposed since February 2025 on dozens of countries, including China, under emergency declarations tied to fentanyl trafficking and national security claims. Dissenting Justices Thomas, Alito, and Kavanaugh argued the law’s broad language supports executive flexibility in economic statecraft.
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Trump, dissatisfied with the ruling, swiftly imposed a temporary 10% global levy under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, then raised it to 15% — the maximum rate permissible for 150 days without congressional approval.
USTR Jamieson Greer later confirmed the administration would launch new Section 301 investigations targeting pharmaceutical pricing, industrial overcapacity, forced labor, digital services taxes, and discrimination against U.S. tech firms.
China Gains Leverage Ahead of April Summit
Analysts say the ruling hands Beijing stronger cards as Xi prepares for Trump’s visit to Beijing (March 31–April 2, 2026) — Trump’s first trip to China since 2017 — and Xi’s planned state visit to Washington later this year. Wendy Cutler, senior vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute and former acting U.S. Trade Representative, told Reuters: “He has effectively had his wings clipped on his signature economic policy.”
Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group, said the decision “limits Trump’s ability to deploy tariffs at will, reduces pressure on Beijing to expand soybean purchases or ease rare earth access, and gives China leverage to push for the removal of the remaining 10% tariffs linked to fentanyl.”
Xinbo Wu, director of Fudan University’s Center for American Studies, agreed: “It certainly helps strengthen China’s position in its negotiation with the U.S.”
Beijing is expected to press for:
- Reduced U.S. support for Taiwan, including arms sales and official contacts.
- Easing of technology export controls on advanced chips and semiconductor equipment.
- Removal of certain Chinese entities from U.S. sanctions lists.
- Rollback of remaining punitive tariffs.
Xi asserted during a recent phone call with Trump that Taiwan is “the most important issue” in U.S.-China relations, overshadowing commercial discussions.
Minxin Pei of Claremont McKenna College predicts Xi may offer Trump concessions on U.S. agricultural and energy purchases in exchange for a statement on Taiwan that Beijing could portray as a diplomatic victory. Pei expects limited concrete progress on thornier issues like export controls or economic rebalancing.
Limited Impact on Broader U.S.-China Relations
Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said the ruling has “limited impact” on the overall U.S.-China relationship because “China had already gained the upper hand.” He anticipates the April summit will yield modest outcomes — perhaps an extension of last year’s trade truce and increased U.S. product sales — but little movement on structural issues like technology controls or China’s economic model.
China’s Commerce Ministry said Monday it is conducting a “comprehensive assessment” of the ruling and urged the U.S. to “cancel its unilateral tariffs against its trading partners.” The ministry reiterated: “China and the U.S. both stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation.”
Trump’s new 15% global tariff under Section 122 replaces the invalidated IEEPA duties. Penn-Wharton estimates that $175–$179 billion in prior IEEPA collections are now subject to refund claims. CBP halted IEEPA collections on Tuesday, three days after the ruling.
Trade-weighted impacts vary sharply:
- U.K.: +2.1 percentage points
- EU: +0.8 points
- Brazil: -13.6 points
- China: -7.1 points
Early deal-makers (EU, U.K., Japan, South Korea) see smaller net relief or even increases, while countries resisting earlier demands (Brazil, India) benefit more. Johannes Fritz of Global Trade Alert noted that nations with heavy prior IEEPA exposure gain the most relief.
Alicia Garcia Herrero of Natixis pointed out Japan — which traded a $550 billion U.S. investment pledge for a 15% rate — now effectively receives the same treatment as others despite its concessions.
USTR Jamieson Greer insisted existing trade deals remain intact, as they were negotiated despite pending litigation. The administration has already launched new Section 301 investigations covering pharmaceuticals, industrial overcapacity, forced labor, digital services taxes, and more — signaling a shift to more targeted, legally durable tools. Trump has warned of additional tariffs in the coming months under alternative authorities. The temporary 15% levy expires in 150 days unless Congress approves extensions or new legislation.
Market and Economic Signals
European markets opened lower Monday, with the STOXX 600 down modestly. The euro weakened, while safe-haven assets like gold and bonds gained. U.S. stock futures rose slightly Friday evening after the ruling, with import-reliant sectors benefiting from potential inflation relief.
The ruling is expected to ease near-term price pressures (tariffs added ~0.5–1% to core inflation) and provide a cash-flow boost to importers via refunds, though administrative delays at CBP may slow payouts.
The decision limits unilateral executive tariff authority, reinforcing congressional oversight. It may force the administration to build more evidence-based cases under Section 301/232, slowing escalation but increasing legal durability.
For China, the ruling reduces immediate tariff pressure while Beijing prepares to push on Taiwan and tech controls. The April summit is likely to be more political than economic, with limited breakthroughs on structural issues.