Fresh doubts are emerging on Wall Street over the growing optimism that the United States and Iran are close to ending a conflict that has already rattled global energy markets, disrupted shipping flows, and revived fears of another inflation shock for the world economy.

While markets initially rallied after President Donald Trump said over the weekend that a deal with Iran had been “largely negotiated,” analysts at Piper Sandler warned clients that expectations of a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may be dangerously premature. In a note to investors, the bank’s energy and macroeconomic teams argued that the vital shipping lane is likely to remain “largely closed for months,” a scenario they believe could send oil prices to fresh highs later this summer.

“We think the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed for months yet, meaning shortages become more urgent and oil hits new highs this Summer,” a recent note from the investment bank’s energy and macro teams said.

The warning comes as mixed signals continue to emerge from Washington and Tehran. U.S. military officials confirmed that American forces carried out what they described as “self-defense strikes” in southern Iran, targeting missile launch sites and vessels allegedly laying mines near the Strait of Hormuz. The operation underscored how fragile diplomatic efforts remain even as negotiations continue behind the scenes.

Trump had earlier struck a more optimistic tone, saying on Truth Social that an agreement with Iran had been substantially negotiated and that details would soon follow. But Iranian officials have simultaneously warned that maritime access through the strategically critical waterway “will have costs,” reinforcing concerns that Tehran still sees the strait as leverage in negotiations.

The contradictory messaging has left investors struggling to determine whether the region is moving toward de-escalation or a more entrenched economic confrontation.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, historically handling roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil shipments alongside major volumes of liquefied natural gas exports from Gulf producers. Countries across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East depend heavily on uninterrupted flows through the narrow passage.

Shipping data has already shown vessel traffic collapsing to near-zero levels after the conflict intensified, creating mounting concerns about supply shortages if disruptions persist into the second half of the year.

Piper Sandler said it has “very little confidence” that commercial traffic through the Strait will recover even to half of pre-war levels in the near term. The bank argued that Washington appears reluctant to escalate militarily because a wider confrontation could destabilize neighboring Gulf states and deepen global supply chain disruptions.

The firm also suggested Iran’s leadership sees little incentive to compromise quickly because elevated oil prices and shipping disruptions strengthen Tehran’s bargaining position. That assessment contrasts with the recent rebound in global equities, where investors have increasingly bet that diplomacy would ultimately prevail.

Oil prices themselves illustrate the market’s uncertainty. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude surged toward $120 a barrel during the early phase of the conflict before retreating to around $94 as hopes for negotiations improved. Piper Sandler now believes another leg higher is increasingly likely if shipping disruptions persist.

Such a move would carry major implications far beyond the energy sector.

Higher crude prices are already feeding into gasoline and transport costs globally, complicating central bank efforts to contain inflation. In the United States, rising fuel prices have become a growing political concern ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, particularly after inflation had shown signs of easing earlier this year.

The Federal Reserve now faces a more difficult balancing act. Markets that previously expected multiple rate cuts in 2026 have sharply revised those assumptions as energy-driven inflation risks intensify. Bond markets have also become increasingly volatile as investors reassess the likelihood of prolonged higher interest rates.

The broader economic threat extends into manufacturing, aviation, logistics, and consumer spending. Europe and Asia remain particularly vulnerable because many economies rely heavily on Middle Eastern energy imports routed through Hormuz.

Analysts say even a full reopening of the waterway may not immediately normalize markets because insurers, shipping firms, and commodity traders are likely to continue pricing in elevated geopolitical risks for months.

The conflict has also revived debate over the vulnerability of global trade routes and the concentration of energy infrastructure in geopolitically unstable regions. Several governments are already accelerating discussions around strategic petroleum reserves, alternative shipping corridors, and long-term energy diversification plans.

For investors, the central question is no longer simply whether a diplomatic agreement can be reached, but whether any deal would be strong enough to restore confidence in one of the world’s most critical trade arteries.

At the moment, Piper Sandler appears unconvinced.

France’s biggest bank, BNP Paribas, is intensifying efforts to harden its cyber defenses as a new generation of powerful artificial intelligence models begins reshaping the global security landscape and exposing vulnerabilities at unprecedented speed.

Marc Camus, the bank’s chief information officer, said the rise of advanced AI systems capable of rapidly identifying software weaknesses has fundamentally altered how financial institutions must think about cyber resilience. Banks are now preparing for an environment in which AI tools can uncover thousands of vulnerabilities simultaneously, compressing the time available to detect, prioritize, and patch critical flaws.

“There is a lot of noise in the market on Mythos and the fact that Mythos is accessible or not accessible for some banks, particularly European banks,” Camus said during a joint press conference on Tuesday with French AI startup Mistral AI.

The comments underline growing anxiety among European lenders that U.S. financial institutions could gain a strategic edge in cybersecurity if they obtain earlier or broader access to frontier AI systems such as Mythos, the advanced cybersecurity-focused model launched earlier this year by Anthropic.

Mythos was designed to identify software vulnerabilities at massive scale and speed, raising concerns across the banking sector that such systems could eventually become dual-use technologies: defensive tools for institutions but also potentially powerful assets for cybercriminals and state-backed attackers.

Camus said the key challenge facing banks is operational velocity.

“The game changer is the speed at which we have to address vulnerabilities and the scale. There are lots of them discovered at once,” he said.

“So we need to prepare ourselves for that and that’s something we are really working on very, very hard.”

The warning emerges through a broader transformation underway in global finance as banks increasingly integrate generative AI into core operations while simultaneously confronting the risks created by the same technology. Financial institutions are under mounting pressure to modernize legacy systems, secure sprawling digital infrastructure, and comply with tightening regulatory standards around operational resilience.

European banks have become particularly sensitive to the issue as the AI race increasingly concentrates around U.S. firms with enormous computing resources and privileged access to cutting-edge semiconductor infrastructure. Executives across the sector fear that uneven access to the most advanced AI models could widen competitiveness gaps between Wall Street banks and their European peers.

BNP Paribas’ expanding partnership with Mistral illustrates how European financial institutions are attempting to build regional AI alliances rather than relying entirely on U.S. technology giants. The French lender and Mistral said they have broadened a collaboration that began in 2023, when the Paris-based startup was still in its early stages.

Mistral has quickly emerged as one of Europe’s most prominent AI firms and is widely viewed as a strategic continental alternative to American companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google.

Corentin Petit, Mistral’s global head of solutions, said the company is tailoring its models for heavily regulated sectors, including banking, where compliance, auditability, and data governance are becoming critical differentiators.

“We will optimize on benchmarks that matter for our customers in the industry,” Petit said, adding that more details would be disclosed later.

BNP Paribas is already deploying Mistral’s technology across multiple divisions. Sophie Heller, chief transformation officer for the bank’s retail and consumer business, said the lender is using Mistral-powered tools for internal productivity systems, customer-facing virtual assistants in France and Belgium, and compliance functions at its Belgian subsidiary Fortis.

Within BNP’s investment banking division, the applications are expanding even further. Charles Holive, the unit’s chief AI officer, said the bank is using AI for document extraction, equity research support, and enterprise-wide knowledge retrieval systems serving tens of thousands of employees.

The collaboration has moved beyond a conventional vendor-client arrangement. Mistral engineers and data scientists are now embedded directly within BNP teams to jointly develop and scale AI systems internally. The partnership also comes as Europe pushes to reduce dependence on U.S. cloud and AI infrastructure. European policymakers and executives have increasingly argued that the continent risks losing technological sovereignty if its banking and industrial sectors rely too heavily on American AI providers.

Additionally, regulators are warning that AI could amplify systemic risks inside the financial sector if governance frameworks fail to keep pace. Supervisors in Europe and the United States have repeatedly cautioned banks about model hallucinations, data leakage, cyber manipulation, and concentration risk tied to a small number of dominant AI providers.