Bernstein Initiates Coverage on Figure Technologies (FIGR)

Analysts at Bernstein Research launched coverage of Figure Technologies (NASDAQ: FIGR), a blockchain-based lending platform, with an “Outperform” rating and a $54 price target. This implies approximately 35% upside potential from the stock’s closing price of $40 on Friday, October 3, 2025

Following the note, FIGR shares rose about 6% in early trading on Monday, reaching around $42.76. Bernstein positions Figure as a pioneering force in tokenizing real-world assets (RWAs), particularly in the credit markets, drawing parallels to how stablecoins revolutionized payments.

The firm argues that blockchain tokenization will “digitize and disintermediate” the $2 trillion+ U.S. consumer lending market by enabling faster, more efficient transactions without heavy reliance on intermediaries

Figure holds ~75% share of the $17 billion tokenized private credit market, making it the dominant player. Overall, ~$33 billion in RWAs excluding stablecoins are currently tokenized on blockchains, with private credit leading the charge.

Figure’s Provenance blockchain and Connect marketplace transform traditional “balance-sheet heavy” lending into a “capital-light” model. This reduces operating costs by over 90% and loan turnaround times by ~75%, allowing investors direct access to tokenized consumer loans.

Bernstein forecasts 30% annual revenue growth, from $341 million in 2024 to $754 million by 2027. Earnings are expected to quadruple to $427 million, with margins expanding from 30% to 57%

Founded in 2018 by former SoFi CEO Mike Cagney, Figure originated $5.1 billion in home equity line of credit (HELOC) loans in 2024, capturing 13% of the non-bank market. Analysts predict this share will grow to 25% by 2027, with tokenization extending to equities and other assets

At current levels, FIGR trades at ~19x EV/2027 EBITDA and 30x P/E—a premium multiple justified by its first-mover advantage, profitability, and exposure to the booming RWA tokenization trend. The $54 target suggests a ~$11.5 billion market cap

Figure went public in early September 2025, pricing its IPO at $25 per share and raising nearly $788 million at a $787.5 million valuation. Shares have since surged ~75%, reflecting strong market enthusiasm for blockchain’s role in traditional finance.

This coverage aligns with a wave of bullish initiations from firms like Goldman Sachs, Piper Sandler, and Mizuho, underscoring Figure’s potential as “the Nasdaq of blockchain-based lending.”

The $54 price target implies ~35% upside from the October 3, 2025, closing price of $40, signaling strong confidence in Figure’s growth. The 6% stock price increase to ~$42.76 on October 6 reflects immediate market enthusiasm.

Trading at ~19x EV/2027 EBITDA and 30x P/E, Figure commands a premium due to its first-mover advantage in tokenized lending. Investors may see this as validation of its high-growth potential, though some may question the rich valuation.

Combined with bullish coverage from firms like Goldman Sachs and Piper Sandler, Bernstein’s note could attract more institutional and retail investors, potentially driving further stock gains.

Bernstein’s framing of Figure as a leader in tokenizing real-world assets (RWAs) underscores blockchain’s growing role in transforming the $2 trillion+ U.S. consumer lending market. This could accelerate institutional adoption of blockchain for credit products.

Figure’s Provenance blockchain and Connect marketplace reduce reliance on traditional intermediaries, cutting costs by over 90% and loan turnaround times by ~75%. This efficiency could pressure legacy lenders to adopt similar technologies or lose market share.

With ~$33 billion in tokenized RWAs excluding stablecoins and Figure’s 75% share of the $17 billion tokenized private credit market, the firm is well-positioned to capture growth as tokenization extends to equities and other assets.

Bernstein’s forecast of 30% annual revenue growth from $341M in 2024 to $754M by 2027 and earnings quadrupling to $427M with 57% margins highlights Figure’s scalable, capital-light model. This could make FIGR a compelling growth stock.

Figure’s 13% share of the non-bank HELOC market in 2024, projected to reach 25% by 2027, positions it as a leader in a high-demand segment, especially as home equity lending grows amid high interest rates.

Figure’s dominance in tokenized private credit gives it a head start, but competitors may emerge as blockchain adoption grows. Established fintechs or banks could challenge Figure if they invest heavily in similar platforms.

While blockchain offers efficiency, regulatory scrutiny of tokenized assets and decentralized finance (DeFi) could pose challenges. Figure’s ability to navigate regulations will be critical to maintaining its edge.

Figure’s success could inspire other fintechs to integrate blockchain, accelerating the convergence of traditional finance and DeFi. This may lead to new business models and investment opportunities.

Bernstein’s view of Figure as “the Nasdaq of blockchain-based lending” suggests tokenized platforms could redefine capital markets, making them more accessible, liquid, and efficient. This could attract significant capital inflows to blockchain-focused firms.

The projected growth of tokenized RWAs could shift investor attention toward companies like Figure, driving capital toward blockchain innovators and potentially creating a new asset class.

Achieving 30% revenue growth and 25% HELOC market share requires flawless execution, including technological reliability and customer adoption. High interest rates or economic slowdowns could dampen demand for HELOCs, impacting Figure’s growth trajectory.

Bernstein’s bullish outlook reinforces Figure’s position as a trailblazer in blockchain-based lending, with significant implications for its stock performance, the adoption of tokenized assets, and the evolution of credit markets. Investors may see FIGR as a high-growth opportunity, but risks like regulation and competition warrant caution.