The price of Bitcoin hovered near the $70,000 mark early Monday after briefly approaching $74,000 over the weekend, before retreating amid escalating geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices.
The leading cryptocurrency declined by 1.1% over the past 24 hours, trading around $70,800 at the time of reporting. The broader crypto market also weakened, slipping 0.7% and falling below a total market capitalization of $2.5 trillion.
The pullback followed an announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which came after peace talks between the United States and Iran collapsed over the weekend. In a press statement, U.S. Vice President JD Vance confirmed that talks ended without agreement, noting that Iran declined to meet key U.S. conditions.
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Central to Washington’s demands was a firm commitment from Iran to abandon any pursuit of nuclear weapons or related capabilities, an objective described as fundamental to President Trump’s negotiation strategy.
Following the announcement, Bitcoin shed approximately $3,200, contributing to an $83 billion decline in the total cryptocurrency market, which dropped from $2.47 trillion to $2.39 trillion in a single day.
Tensions escalated further after President Trump confirmed that the U.S. Navy would begin enforcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday morning. The development triggered a sharp 7% spike in oil futures, raising concerns about renewed inflationary pressures at a time when the Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious stance on interest rates.
On-chain data underscores the extent of the market strain, with approximately 13.5 million Bitcoin addresses currently holding at a loss, largely due to the asset’s decline from its October 2025 peak above $126,000.
Despite the turbulence, Bitcoin has managed to hold slightly above the critical $70,000 support level. Analysts note that this price zone represents both a psychological and technical floor.
While short-term dips may attract buying interest if the level holds, a breakdown below $68,000 could accelerate selling pressure and expose the market to further downside, potentially toward $62,000–$65,000.
Conversely, a sustained move above $71,000 on a weekly closing basis would be required to signal renewed bullish momentum, with $74,000 acting as the next key resistance level.
Market sentiment remains cautious. According to Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau, Bitcoin’s recovery is still fragile as the broader economic impact of geopolitical tensions is expected to weigh on financial markets throughout the second quarter. Expectations for interest rate cuts have also shifted further out, with potential easing now projected for Q3 or Q4.
Data from CME FedWatch supports this outlook, indicating a more than 98% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at both its April and June meetings.
Outlook
Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s trajectory will likely be shaped by a combination of geopolitical developments, macroeconomic signals, and investor sentiment. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz introduces a significant inflationary risk via higher energy prices, which could further delay monetary easing and pressure risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
If geopolitical tensions persist or escalate, markets may experience heightened volatility, with capital rotating into safer assets. However, if stability returns and inflation concerns ease, Bitcoin could regain upward momentum, particularly if it maintains support above the $70,000 level.
In the near term, traders and investors will be closely watching key technical levels, central bank signals, and global political developments as the market navigates an increasingly uncertain landscape.