Sentiment in the Bitcoin market has recently shown signs of improvement, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index moving into the neutral-to-greed zone for the first time in months.
The index, which tracks overall investor sentiment, reportedly registered a “greed” score following weeks of fear and extreme fear. On Thursday, it reached a reading of 61, reflecting a notable shift in mood after prolonged caution. Just a day earlier, it had climbed to 48, placing it in neutral territory.
This shift in sentiment appears to be driven largely by Bitcoin’s latest rally. The flagship cryptocurrency surged past the $97,000 level, trading as high as $97,898 before experiencing a mild pullback. At the time of reporting, BTC was hovering around $96,765, still firmly above its recent consolidation range.
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Despite the improvement, the index has not fully entered the greed zone, suggesting that many investors remain hesitant to fully embrace the bullish momentum. Historically, cryptocurrency markets often move against majority expectations, meaning that lingering skepticism can sometimes be a constructive signal. When traders are not overly euphoric, rallies tend to be less crowded and potentially more sustainable.
On the technical side, Bitcoin’s daily chart shows signs of stabilization following a prolonged consolidation phase. After the sharp sell-off in November that pushed BTC into the low $80,000 region, the asset began forming higher lows, an early signal of structural recovery rather than continued downside pressure. Buyers have since regained some control, pushing the price back into a range that previously acted as resistance.
Interestingly, while price action has improved, sentiment remains cautious. Typically, breakouts invite optimism, but this time the reaction has been muted. Social commentary and sentiment indicators continue to reflect doubt, even as Bitcoin moves higher. This kind of disconnect where price leads while sentiment lags is often associated with what traders call a “disbelief rally.” In such scenarios, traders hesitate to chase the move, short positions remain active, and sidelined capital waits for pullbacks that may not materialize. Ironically, this hesitation can help sustain upside momentum, as the market avoids becoming overcrowded with overly bullish positions.
From a trend perspective, the picture remains mixed. The 50-day moving average is still sloping downward and sits above the current price, acting as near-term resistance. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average continues to trend higher well below the current level, reinforcing the idea that the broader market structure remains intact despite recent volatility. This alignment suggests Bitcoin may be transitioning from a corrective phase into a potential recovery, rather than confirming a full trend reversal.
For bullish momentum to remain intact, holding above the $93,000–$95,000 zone is critical. This area now serves as a key support band. A failure to maintain this range could open the door to renewed consolidation or a pullback toward the $90,000 region.
Outlook
Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s next major psychological test lies at the $100,000 mark. However, the path toward this level may not be immediate or smooth. Market structure and positioning data suggest that BTC could spend more time consolidating below this milestone before attempting a clean breakout.
If price continues to print higher highs and higher lows while sentiment remains cautious, the conditions for a gradual grind higher remain favorable. Disbelief-driven rallies often persist longer than expected, as dips tend to be bought and bearish positions unwind in stages. On the other hand, a breakdown below key support would likely delay bullish continuation and reinforce a range-bound environment.
Overall, Bitcoin appears to be in a transitional phase, caught between lingering skepticism and improving technical strength. Whether this evolves into a sustained rally or a prolonged consolidation will depend on how well buyers defend recent gains and whether sentiment eventually aligns with price action.