A net outflow of 230,000 BTC from exchanges over the past year, dropping balances from 3.16 million to 2.93 million BTC captures a critical on-chain trend that’s been building throughout 2025.
This isn’t hyperbole; it’s a continuation of a multi-year pattern where Bitcoin’s liquid supply on trading platforms is shrinking dramatically, often signaling reduced selling pressure and bullish momentum for long-term holders.
On-chain analytics from firms like Glassnode, CryptoQuant, and Santiment confirm a sustained decline in exchange-held BTC. Over one-year balances fell from approximately 3.16 million BTC to 2.93 million BTC, a net drain of exactly 230,000 BTC about 1.15% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply of ~19.8 million BTC.
Register for Tekedia Mini-MBA edition 19 (Feb 9 – May 2, 2026): big discounts for early bird.
Tekedia AI in Business Masterclass opens registrations.
Join Tekedia Capital Syndicate and co-invest in great global startups.
Register for Tekedia AI Lab: From Technical Design to Deployment (next edition begins Jan 24 2026).
Reports from Santiment, which noted even larger outflows in the prior 12 months up to 403,200 BTC net from Dec 2024 to Dec 2025 in some datasets, but the 230k figure matches aggregated exchange trackers for the full year.
Exchange reserves hit multi-year lows repeatedly. By mid-2025, they dipped below 2.7 million BTC lowest since Nov 2018, and by Q4, some trackers showed ~2.6 million BTC overall. Major platforms like Binance down ~29,000 BTC in the last month alone and Coinbase down ~281,000 BTC YTD drove much of this, with public companies like MicroStrategy acquiring over 285,000 BTC since late 2024.
This is a 25% plunge from the 2020 peak of ~3.2 million BTC, and the lowest levels since April 2018. For perspective, exchanges now hold just 13-14% of circulating supply, down from 20%+ in prior cycles.
This data isn’t static—it’s pulled from real-time trackers like CoinGlass, which monitor wallet balances across top exchanges. The drain accelerated post-2024 halving and ETF launches, with daily outflows sometimes exceeding 20,000 BTC.
Several structural shifts explain the “drain”: Spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporates like the MicroStrategy’s 2025 buys are vacuuming up supply for cold storage, bypassing exchanges. ETFs saw net outflows of only 10,000 BTC in 2025 vs. 208,000 inflows in 2024, but overall institutional demand remains voracious.
Long-term holders (LTHs) are offloading minimal amounts while whales (wallets >1,000 BTC) accumulated 45% more in 2025. Retail inflows to exchanges like Binance collapsed 60% post-ETFs, from 1,056 BTC/day to 411 BTC/day.
Fed rate cuts and a weakening USD -10.4% in 2025 boosted BTC as an inflation hedge. Combined with the halving’s supply cut now <1% annual inflation, this encourages self-custody over trading. Post-FTX Caution: Lingering exchange distrust since 2022 has pushed users to hardware wallets, reducing “hot” supply.
What Does Tightening Supply Mean for Bitcoin?
Lower exchange balances = less immediate selling pressure. Coins in cold storage or ETFs are “locked” for the long haul, making the market more sensitive to demand spikes. Similar squeezes preceded rallies: In 2017, balances <2 million BTC fueled a 20x surge.
2021’s “supply shock” narrative correlated with BTC hitting $69k. In 2025, this setup points to bullish asymmetry. With BTC trading ~$90k, a break above $92.5k could target $97k-$100k short-term, especially if FOMC signals more easing Dec 9-10.
Analysts eye a 2026 parabolic run as liquidity warnings like US repo markets amplify scarcity. Volatility persists—BTC’s down 13-14% in the last month amid profit-taking. A drop below $88k tests $84k support, but low reserves limit deep corrections.
Fear & Greed Index in “Greed” zone; exchange whale ratio <0.3 signals retail dominance, adding unpredictability but also upside fuel. To illustrate the year-long drain, here’s a line chart of approximate monthly averages. In short, 230k BTC drained isn’t just a stat; it’s the blockchain’s quiet vote of confidence in Bitcoin’s future.
Supply shocks don’t announce themselves—they build until demand ignites the fuse. If you’re holding or eyeing entry, this is the kind of asymmetry that rewards patience. What’s your take—bullish breakout incoming, or more chop first?