The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on Monday declared that recapitalizing the banking sector was inevitable if the country intends to build a $1 trillion economy by 2030.
CBN Deputy Governor, Corporate Services, Ms. Emem Usoro, who delivered a keynote address at the opening of the 36th CBN seminar for finance correspondents and business editors in Abuja, emphasized that improving banks’ capital base would ensure resilience and enable them to finance the country’s development projects. She stated that recapitalization would also position Nigerian banks to compete more effectively with their global counterparts.
Speaking through the acting Director, Corporate Communications Department, Mrs. Sidi Ali-Hakama, Usoro said the time had come to pay significant attention to the recapitalization of banks, especially as Nigeria targets an ambitious economic expansion from its current estimated size of $250 billion to $1 trillion in less than a decade.
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“The push for a recapitalization of banks would no doubt improve the strength and health of the financial system, deepen financial intermediation, and promote healthier competition that would strengthen our payment system,” she said.
She noted that the 2004 banking reform, which raised the minimum capital base to N25 billion and reduced the number of banks from 89 to 25, proved successful in its time. A similar decisive move, she argued, is now needed as Nigeria plans to multiply its economic size fourfold.
“The 2004 banking sector consolidation and recapitalization exercise, which set a limit of N25 billion minimum capital base for banks, brought the Nigerian banks from 89 to 25, was a noble idea that the Central Bank of Nigeria implemented in line with emerging developments at that time.
“Today, our economy is valued at approximately $250 billion. As we aspire to build a $1 trillion-economy, all hands must be on deck…This gathering is essential to bring to the fore the bank’s efforts and policy direction,” she said.
However, outside the walls of the seminar, the consensus among economic experts is far more sobering. Many have warned that without a stable power supply, the dream of a $1 trillion economy remains a mirage. According to them, the country’s chronic power crisis poses a far greater threat to growth than capital inadequacy.
According to a study, for every 1% increase in electricity supply, an economy is expected to grow by 3.94%. Inversely, a 1% increase in real gross domestic product leads to a 0.34% increase in electricity supply and consumption.
Currently, Nigeria generates about 4,000MW to 5,000MW of electricity, a figure that has remained stagnant for years despite decades of policy shifts, billions of dollars in spending, and successive power sector reforms. Experts argue that this level of generation is not even sufficient for Lagos alone, let alone an entire country.
“With a current installed capacity of about 14,000 megawatts, and utilization ranging between 3500 to a maximum 4000, over 11 years post privatization, the government’s aim to boost electricity access from 45% to 90% by 2030 is not feasible without a bench markable framework backed by credible data,” Dr. Joy Ogaji, managing director, Association of Gencos, said late last year.
Nigeria needs an estimated 30,000MW of stable power to grow its economy significantly, yet, there is no actionable plan in place to raise its power generation to even 10,000MW in the next ten years.
Against this backdrop, the talk of a $1 trillion economy feels out of touch with reality.
The power deficit continues to cripple productivity across sectors. Manufacturing plants operate at a fraction of their capacity, small businesses rely on expensive diesel generators, and foreign investors routinely cite electricity as a major disincentive.
Over the years, Nigeria has rolled out different interventions to reform the power sector, including privatizing generation and distribution assets, signing power purchase agreements, and setting up regulatory bodies. But none of these efforts has led to significant or sustained improvement in electricity supply.
The current administration, like those before it, has promised to “fix power.” Yet there is no clear roadmap to ramp up generation, expand transmission, or overhaul the comatose distribution companies. Experts have therefore called for the federal government to declare a state of emergency in the power sector.