China Signals Strain as It Slashes Rates, Frees Up $138bn, and Opens Door to Trade Talks with U.S.

After months of insisting it had the tools to weather any economic headwinds, China’s leadership has abruptly swung into action, slashing interest rates, freeing up massive liquidity, and announcing its first confirmed trade talks with the United States since relations plunged into deeper hostility under a new round of tariffs from Washington.

The sweeping policy moves unveiled Wednesday—interest rate cuts, a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reduction, and targeted lending support—have been interpreted by analysts as more than a stimulus effort. They are being seen as a tacit admission that the world’s second-largest economy is buckling under intensifying pressure and that Beijing may no longer afford the luxury of defiance.

At a press briefing in Beijing, People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng laid out the central bank’s most expansive stimulus package in over a year.

The PBOC will reduce the seven-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points, to 1.4%, while the main policy lending rate, the loan prime rate (LPR), is expected to follow suit with a similar cut. More notably, the reserve requirement ratio for banks will be trimmed by 50 basis points, effective May 15. This is expected to inject 1 trillion yuan ($138.5 billion) in liquidity into the banking system—a figure that underscores the scale of Beijing’s new urgency.

Additional measures include a 500-billion-yuan lending program to support consumption and elderly care, as well as a 25-basis-point cut in mortgage rates under the nation’s housing provident fund scheme. First-time homebuyers will see five-year loan rates fall to 2.6% from 2.85%. In a further push to revive credit and consumption, auto finance companies will eventually see their reserve requirement slashed to zero from the current 5%.

While these measures target a variety of sectors, from real estate to automobile financing, they arrive in a context of faltering confidence, both domestically and abroad.

Policy Shift Interpreted as a Crack in the Armor

Until recently, Beijing had resisted more aggressive policy interventions, relying instead on limited or sector-specific measures to steer the economy through slow growth and mounting trade uncertainty. The pivot on Wednesday represents a significant shift in posture.

Some analysts believe the scale and urgency of the announcements suggest a recognition that the policy approach of doing just enough is no longer working.

“Borrowing activity has been largely unresponsive to prior rate cuts, indicating deeper structural malaise,” said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

The Tariff Shock and the Silent Pressure

The urgency stems in part from a deepening trade standoff with Washington. President Donald Trump, now in his second term, escalated the confrontation last month by raising tariffs on a wide range of Chinese imports to 145%. Beijing retaliated with its own steep levies of 125% on U.S. goods. The tit-for-tat measures have had a chilling effect on bilateral trade, leading to production slowdowns and shrinking factory orders.

While Beijing publicly maintains a posture of resilience, sources close to policy circles suggest internal data may be painting a grimmer picture. At a high-level policy meeting in April, top officials were reportedly told to prepare for “worst-case scenarios.” Analysts believe this was a coded acknowledgment of the potential for economic contraction if the situation continues to spiral.

That context may explain Wednesday’s announcement that Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Switzerland later this week—the first such engagement since the tariff war escalated. While no breakthrough is expected, the very fact that Beijing is agreeing to talks is being seen as a significant retreat from its earlier hardline stance.

Deflation, Weak Demand, and the Yuan

Adding to Beijing’s woes is the persistent deflationary environment. Core inflation remains flat, and domestic credit demand has failed to pick up despite earlier monetary easing. The yuan has been another source of concern. Earlier this month, the offshore yuan weakened to a record low of 7.4287 per U.S. dollar, fueling fears of capital flight.

The Wednesday measures offered some relief. The yuan strengthened modestly to 7.2227 per dollar, helped by the removal of immediate pressure on capital outflows now that interest rates and RRRs are being lowered in a more stable currency environment.

“There is no longer pressure on the RMB to depreciate against the dollar,” said Zhiwei Zhang of Pinpoint Asset Management. “That gives the PBOC room to act more decisively without triggering panic.”

Despite the strong monetary response, some analysts believe a meaningful recovery will require a coordinated fiscal boost—something still missing from Beijing’s playbook. This will require new fiscal tools, such as direct subsidies or public investment packages, which may only emerge when the leadership sees unmistakable signs of deterioration.

Until then, economists expect further incremental moves. Song from ING forecasts another 20-basis-point interest rate cut and a further 50-basis-point RRR reduction later this year. But he warned that any subsequent stimulus will likely hinge on when the U.S. Federal Reserve begins cutting rates.

China’s bond market responded with caution. The yield on 10-year government bonds was little changed at 1.636%, reflecting investor hesitation to price in a full recovery just yet.

But traders are watching the upcoming talks in Switzerland closely. Should they produce even the outline of a truce, Beijing may find some breathing space. If they fail—or worse, break down in acrimony — the current stimulus may turn out to be only the first step in a much longer battle to shield the Chinese economy from deep damage.