Copper’s AI-Fueled Rally Hits a Wall as Tariff Risks and Speculation Raise Correction Fears

Copper’s sharp pullback from record highs is forcing a broader reassessment of what has been driving the rally and how vulnerable it may be as policy risks, speculative positioning, and macro pressures converge.

The metal surged past $14,000 per metric ton this week, a level that would have seemed implausible not long ago for a commodity traditionally anchored to construction cycles and factory output. Within hours, prices reversed course, sliding to around $13,800 as gold and silver also retreated. The coordinated sell-off has reinforced a growing view among banks and economists that copper has been trading less on physical fundamentals and more as part of a wider commodities trade driven by fear, positioning, and geopolitics.

At the center of that reassessment is Washington. President Donald Trump’s decision in July 2025 to impose a 50% tariff on imports of semi-finished copper products and intensive copper derivative products reshaped the US market almost immediately. The policy encouraged aggressive stockpiling by traders and manufacturers seeking to secure supplies ahead of further restrictions. That surge in inventories tightened availability in the US, amplified price momentum, and helped push copper into record territory.

Goldman Sachs now argues that the next phase of US trade policy could have the opposite effect. The bank expects an update on refined copper tariffs by mid-2026 and warns that such a move would likely mark a turning point. Analysts say a refined copper tariff would reduce the incentive to hoard material inside the US and push the market’s focus back to global balances, where supply conditions appear far less constrained. In that scenario, prices would have to adjust to a market no longer propped up by artificial scarcity.

Goldman has already flagged a likely second-quarter correction, even as it maintains a constructive longer-term outlook and recently lifted its copper price target for the first half of 2026. That dual message underscores the tension in the market: strong structural narratives versus stretched near-term valuations.

Copper has also been swept up in a broader metals rally that has seen investors rotate into hard assets amid persistent geopolitical strain. US-China trade tensions, conflicts in key regions, and volatility in currency markets have encouraged capital flows into commodities. Gold and silver have been the most visible beneficiaries, but copper has increasingly traded in sympathy with them, moving more like a macro hedge than an industrial input.

This shift has been reinforced by the metal’s link to the artificial intelligence buildout. Copper is essential for data centers, power transmission, electric vehicles, and grid upgrades, all of which sit at the heart of the AI and electrification story. That narrative has given investors a powerful justification for betting on higher prices, even as near-term demand indicators send mixed signals.

José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, has cautioned that the enthusiasm is not purely about consumption. He said part of the rally is driven by nationalistic sentiment, particularly in China, where investors are keen to hold assets tied to strategic materials their country may need in a competitive technology race. That behavior, he argued, is less about immediate orders for copper wire and more about positioning for a perceived geopolitical advantage.

Evidence of heavy speculative activity supports that view. Analysts say traders in China have played a central role in driving prices higher, with futures positioning and short-term trades outpacing signals from the real economy. Capital Economics senior commodities economist Kieran Tompkins said it has become clear that speculation is doing much of the work. Indicators tied to construction, manufacturing, and broader demand in China point to softness rather than a boom, raising questions about how sustainable current price levels really are.

Goldman commodities analyst Eoin Dinsmore has been equally blunt, saying copper prices have overshot what fundamentals justify. In his assessment, a refined copper tariff announcement from Trump could be the moment that forces a reset, acting as a catalyst for a broader unwind of bullish positions. Torres echoed that concern, warning that supply-and-demand dynamics suggest copper is trading at extreme valuations.

The parallels with precious metals add another layer of risk. Gold and silver have both surged over the past year, and analysts have voiced concern that those rallies are being driven more by momentum and fear of missing out than by traditional drivers such as inflation expectations or industrial usage. Copper’s recent behavior suggests it has been pulled into the same dynamic, even though its end-use profile is very different.

What happens next may depend on how quickly policy uncertainty is resolved and how patient investors remain. If US stockpiling slows, speculative positions are trimmed, and global supply reasserts itself, copper could face a deeper correction in the coming months. That would not erase the long-term case tied to electrification, energy transition, and AI infrastructure, but it would challenge the idea that prices can continue rising unchecked.

Copper for now is still supported by a compelling strategic narrative, yet the near-term picture is clouded by tariff risks, stretched valuations, and signs that financial enthusiasm has outrun physical demand. The recent pullback may be only the first test of whether this rally can stand on fundamentals alone.