The Digital Battleground of Osun LG Crisis: Who Holds the Real Influence?

It is no longer news that the recent legitimacy crisis following the Court of Appeal’s judgment on the Osun 2022 Local Government election has led to the loss of lives. According to our analyst, the physical violence was fueled by online and offline divided narratives over which party should control the local councils across the state after the judgment’s “misinterpretation.” In recent days, Osun’s digital landscape has become a battleground for political conflicts between followers and supporters of the All-Progressives Congress and the People’s Democratic Party.

As the narratives unfold across the landscape and various physical settings, our analyst examines the social network aspect of the crisis, focusing on the tagging of Kehinde Ayantunji, a former political appointee of former Governor Gboyega Oyetola. Messages posted on Facebook by followers and supporters tagging Ayantunji within 24 hours were analyzed. According to our analyst, the data indicates a clear pattern of polarization, revealing the most influence, how narratives are shaped, and the implications for the broader political landscape.

At the heart of this digital battle is Bashorun Adekanola Desmond Abiodun, whose engagement is unmatched. His presence is felt in both Pro-APC and Anti-PDP discussions, making him a central figure in this political exchange. Alongside him, Hon Okete Ikire and Adediwura I. Adeshina play significant roles in amplifying the APC’s online dominance. Conversely, Segun Makinde is one of the few voices championing the PDP, but his reach pales in comparison. The lack of a strong digital presence from PDP supporters hints at either a strategic withdrawal or an inability to rally engagement in the same way as APC loyalists.

A deeper look at the network reveals key insights. The degree centrality measure shows that Pro-APC and Anti-PDP voices are the most connected, indicating that these narratives are not only dominant but also widely disseminated. Bashorun Adekanola Desmond Abiodun stands out as a leading influencer, with Hon Okete Ikire and Adediwura I. Adeshina reinforcing APC’s stronghold on the conversation.

Interestingly, an examination of betweenness centrality, which identifies individuals who connect different parts of the network reveals a troubling reality: there are no bridge actors. This suggests that the discourse remains deeply divided, with no meaningful interaction between APC and PDP supporters. Rather than fostering dialogue, each faction appears to be speaking within its echo chamber, reinforcing existing beliefs instead of engaging in debate.

The closeness centrality measure further highlights APC’s digital dominance. With Pro-APC and Anti-PDP narratives having the highest reachability scores, their messages spread the fastest and reach the most people. In contrast, Pro-PDP and Anti-APC perspectives struggle to gain traction, making it difficult for PDP to counter the prevailing narrative.

What does this mean for the future of political engagement in Osun? The data paints a picture of growing digital polarization, where one side holds the advantage and the other struggles to make an impact. This is a significant challenge for PDP, which needs to rethink its digital strategy if it hopes to remain competitive. Without a stronger online presence, it risks being drowned out in the conversation.

For PDP to close the gap, several strategies should be considered. First, strengthening digital mobilization by recruiting and empowering online advocates can help counterbalance APC’s influence. Second, creating compelling counter-narratives rather than reacting to APC’s messaging can shift the conversation. Third, bridging the divide by identifying influencers who can engage both sides could help break the cycle of polarization. Finally, exploring alternative digital platforms, such as Twitter, WhatsApp, and TikTok, may provide new avenues for engagement outside of APC-dominated spaces like Facebook.