The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, a popular sentiment gauge that aggregates factors like volatility, market momentum, social media buzz, and surveys to score investor psychology on a 0-100 scale where below 25 signals “Extreme Fear”, has plummeted to 15 as of November 13, 2025.
This marks one of the lowest readings in months, reflecting widespread panic amid recent price drops in Bitcoin and the broader market. For context, the index was at 24 just yesterday and averaged around 32 over the past 30 days, spending most of that time in “fear” territory (0-49).
Extreme fear levels like this often coincide with capitulation selling, historically creating buying opportunities as sentiment bottoms out before rebounds.
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This drop echoes levels last seen in March 2025, when Bitcoin traded under $90,000—specifically closing the month at $82,548.91 after a 2.2% decline, with intraday lows dipping toward $80,000 amid post-halving consolidation and macro uncertainties.
At that time, the index similarly hovered in the low teens, signaling a cycle low that preceded a rally into mid-year highs above $120,000. Fast-forward to now: Bitcoin is trading around $102,000-$104,000 down ~18% from its October peak near $126,000, with the total crypto market cap at roughly $3.4 trillion after shedding $70 billion in a single day last week.
An index reading of 15 signals “Extreme Fear,” where panic-driven selling dominates, often marking a psychological bottom in the market. This level indicates capitulation—retail investors are dumping assets, social media sentiment is overwhelmingly negative, and volatility spikes as fear overrides fundamentals.
Historically, such lows (e.g., March 2025 at ~12-15) have preceded sharp rebounds, with Bitcoin rallying 40-60% within 1-3 months as “weaker hands” exit and institutions accumulate. The strategy of “Buy the Fear, Sell the Greed” has delivered outsized returns, as extreme fear zones correlate with undervaluation and mean reversion.
Expect continued pressure on prices, with Bitcoin potentially testing $98,000-$100,000 support amid tax-loss harvesting and year-end liquidity squeezes. Altcoins could see 20-30% further drawdowns, exacerbating BTC dominance currently ~59%.
Analysts view this as a local bottom, with long-term holders (e.g., whales) scooping up supply. Renewed ETF inflows or macro stabilization could spark a November rally, targeting $110,000-$120,000 by month-end.
The parallel to March isn’t exact—Bitcoin is still ~20% higher year-to-date—but the sentiment mirror suggests potential for a similar “fear bottom” if historical patterns hold. On X the reaction is a mix of dread and opportunism, with users like Strongviking66 calling it a “LOONG time” since such lows and questioning if it’s a classic dip to buy, while Mohsinmunir urges stacking “utility coins” over memes.
Bitcoin’s Relative Underperformance vs. Equities at a 3-Year Low
Bitcoin’s performance relative to equities measured via ratios like BTC/S&P 500 or BTC/Nasdaq has weakened to levels not seen since late 2022, during the FTX collapse and broader bear market.
In Q3 2025 alone, BTC underperformed the S&P 500 by over 15% amid profit-taking after early-year gains, shifting Fed policy expectations, and inflation trends favoring traditional assets.
Correlation data shows BTC’s linkage to U.S. equities (e.g., S&P 500) spiking to 0.90 during risk-off periods like May-June 2025 geopolitical flares, but with BTC lagging—its volatility remains 5.1x that of global equities 54% vs. 10.5% annualized.
This relative weakness stems from: Tax-loss harvesting: Crypto’s YTD lag leaves more “losses” to harvest vs. stocks, pressuring December selling bearish short-term. Equities and metals drew inflows on Fed pivot hopes, while BTC saw outflows amid ETF profit-taking.
Recession fears and equity volatility could drag BTC deeper in Q3-Q4 2025, per on-chain analysis, though stabilizing conditions might flip this. Despite the gloom, analysts like those at InvestingHaven see this as a “mid-cycle pause,” with RSI at 66 not overheated and forecasts targeting $130K-$140K by year-end if ETF buying resumes.
Extreme fear + relative undervaluation often signals contrarian entry points—historically, dips below 20 on the index have preceded 50%+ BTC rallies within 3-6 months. Stay calm; markets reward patience here.