Deutsche Bank announced an upward revision to its gold price forecast for 2026, raising the average target to $4,450 per ounce from its previous estimate of $4,000 per ounce. This adjustment reflects the bank’s increasingly bullish outlook on the precious metal amid ongoing global economic uncertainties.
Projected Average Price: $4,450/oz. Trading Range for 2026: $3,950–$4,950/oz. The upper end of the range ($4,950/oz) represents approximately a 14% premium over the current December 2026 COMEX gold futures contract price.
This marks the second significant hike in recent months; in September 2025, Deutsche Bank had lifted its 2026 target to $4,000/oz from $3,700/oz, driven by similar factors.
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Deutsche Bank cited several supportive dynamics for gold’s continued strength. Improving sentiment among Western investors, including inflows into gold-backed ETFs after a period of outflows.
Ongoing purchases by central banks like those from emerging markets like China and India as a hedge against geopolitical risks and currency devaluation. Gold’s outperformance relative to the U.S. dollar, combined with its widest trading range since 1980 in 2025, signals a constructive environment heading into next year.
The bank also noted limited supply responses from miners, which could further tighten the market. While optimistic, Deutsche Bank tempered its view with key downside risks. Gold’s positive correlation with risk assets like equities, which could lead to volatility if stock markets falter.
Less aggressive U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 than currently anticipated by markets. A potential slowdown in central bank buying if reserve managers become more selective. Gold prices have surged over 30% year-to-date in 2025, hitting multiple record highs amid inflation concerns, U.S. election uncertainties, and global tensions.
This forecast aligns with a chorus of bullish analyst views, though it remains aggressive compared to consensus estimates (e.g., many peers target around $3,000–$3,500/oz for 2026). Spot gold is trading near $2,800/oz, implying substantial upside potential if Deutsche Bank’s scenario materializes.
Investors may interpret this as a signal to maintain or increase exposure to gold via ETFs like GLD or physical holdings. Silver prices have rallied over 70% year-to-date, trading near $48.50 per ounce—a record high driven by persistent supply deficits, surging industrial use in solar panels, EVs, and electronics, and its role as a safe-haven asset alongside gold.
Analysts across major banks and research firms have broadly upgraded their 2026 forecasts in recent months, reflecting expectations of continued global economic resilience, potential Fed rate pauses or cuts, and central bank diversification.
While views vary from conservative to highly optimistic, the consensus points to an average price range of $45–$60 per ounce, implying 10–25% upside from current levels. This aligns with the recent bullish momentum in precious metals, including Deutsche Bank’s hike of its gold target to $4,450/oz for 2026.
For silver, Deutsche Bank maintains a more measured outlook at $45/oz average up from $40 earlier this year, citing a fifth consecutive year of physical market deficits but tempered by potential industrial demand normalization. More aggressive forecasts, like Bank of America’s $65 peak average $56.25, highlight structural shortages and ETF inflows.
Outliers include BNP Paribas and Solomon Global at $100 year-end doubling from current, fueled by gold’s spillover and green energy boom, though these are seen as high-end scenarios.
Robert Kiyosaki predicts $75, while First Majestic Silver’s CEO eyes $100+ based on historical patterns. The silver market faces its fifth straight year of shortfalls, with mine production lagging ~200 million ounces behind demand. Recycling is below expectations, tightening physical availability.
Industrial Demand: ~50% of silver use is industrial; solar alone could consume 230+ million ounces annually by 2026, plus EVs and AI data centers. ETF inflows are rebounding, and central banks (e.g., China) are adding to reserves. A weaker USD and Fed easing enhance appeal.
Gold-Silver Ratio: Currently ~82:1 historically high, suggesting silver has catch-up potential if gold hits $4,000+. Despite the optimism, analysts flag volatility—silver moves 1.7x faster than gold. Slower-than-expected Fed cuts or a stronger USD pressuring prices.
Geopolitical de-escalation easing safe-haven buying. World Bank predicts new highs in 2026 but a rally peak and reversal in 2027 due to tariffs and inflation normalization. Silver’s 2025 surge to $51.70 peak has outpaced gold’s, with futures for December 2026 at ~$50 implying room for upside.
Investors may consider ETFs, miners, or physical bars/coins, but volatility warrants diversification. If industrial trends hold, silver could outperform gold in 2026, as Macquarie notes.