Economist Declares Tinubu’s $1tn Economic Agenda Unattainable, Says It Requires Over 40% Annual Growth Rate

The economic growth target set by President Bola Tinubu’s administration is now facing harsh scrutiny, as the Group Chief Economist at Afreximbank, Dr. Yemi Kale declared that Nigeria would require an annual growth rate of over 40% to achieve the government’s one trillion-dollar economic vision—an outcome he bluntly described as “simply unachievable” under current conditions.

Speaking at the Vanguard Economic Discourse 2025 held in Lagos on Wednesday, Kale’s remarks threw cold water on the optimism around Tinubu’s much-publicized agenda to grow Nigeria’s economy to $1 trillion before the end of his term. The ambitious target, which has been echoed repeatedly by top administration officials as a benchmark for economic transformation, now appears increasingly detached from the country’s current trajectory, given its worsening macroeconomic fundamentals.

Kale, who previously served as Nigeria’s Statistician-General, did not dismiss the idea of growth but pointed to a stark mismatch between aspiration and groundwork.

“To reach a $1 trillion economy by the end of this administration’s term, Nigeria would require annual growth rates in excess of 40%—a pace that is virtually unprecedented and, under current conditions, simply unachievable,” he said.

The comment was not just an indictment of lofty projections but a sobering reminder of the structural deficiencies that continue to limit Nigeria’s economic potential. Despite Tinubu’s rhetoric about turning Nigeria into a trillion-dollar economy by 2026, the country’s GDP growth remains slow and volatile, averaging around 2–3% annually, far below population growth and nowhere near the momentum required.

The vision, as articulated by Tinubu in his early economic roadmap, was built around plans to unlock investment, deepen industrialization, and expand Nigeria’s export base. However, persistent inflation, fiscal instability, heavy debt servicing, and a weakening currency have cast a long shadow over those ambitions.

According to Kale, unless Nigeria rapidly recalibrates its policies and makes fundamental reforms, economic resilience will remain elusive.

“The path to economic resilience, inclusive prosperity, and reducing economic hardship is neither quick nor easy, but it is clear. We know what must be done. The foundational pillars are not in question,” he said.

He outlined a roadmap hinged on macroeconomic stabilization, inflation control, fiscal and monetary credibility, and investor confidence—all of which are in deficit. More specifically, Kale urged Nigeria to diversify its economic base by unlocking the potential of agriculture, manufacturing, services, and the digital economy.

“Invest in people and institutions because sustainable growth only happens when human capital is empowered and governance systems are effective,” he added, emphasizing that long-term growth cannot be built on weak foundations and political expediency.

Rising Global Pressures, Shrinking Policy Space

Kale also warned that Nigeria’s policy space is narrowing fast in the face of global economic realignments. The U.S. tariff hike is not a one-off event, he suggested, but a signal that emerging economies like Nigeria must brace up for increasingly unpredictable global trade dynamics.

His concerns were echoed by Dele Oye, President of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), who urged a recalibration of Nigeria’s political and economic strategy.

“The current U.S. administration’s focus on isolationism and trade wars has led to a reevaluation of America’s long-standing alliances, leaving many nations, including Nigeria, to grapple with the complexities of a shifting world order,” Oye said.

He stressed that the country must prioritize economic sovereignty and develop a political structure that is viable, affordable, and resistant to external pressure.

“For Nigeria, these developments underscore the necessity of a shift to a homegrown democracy that prioritizes resilience,” he said.

Oye added that while Nigeria faces enormous challenges, there are also emerging opportunities—especially in the digital space, technological innovation, and youth-led entrepreneurship. But capitalizing on these prospects would require more than token policy statements.

“The balance between these challenges and opportunities will shape Nigeria’s future,” he noted.

SMEs Still Left Behind

Also speaking at the event, Dr. Femi Egbesola, President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria (ASBON), criticized the federal government for overlooking micro and nano enterprises, which make up more than 85% of the country’s SME landscape.

“How many small businesses have become the next Dangote in the last 10 years? Almost none,” he said.

Egbesola dismissed most government interventions as half-measures, adding that the real drivers of growth—small business owners—are still sidelined during the policy design and implementation phases. “We don’t need pity; we need partnership,” he said. “Policies should not be imposed but developed jointly.”

His concern is especially relevant given that the trillion-dollar vision assumes expanded domestic output and a more productive private sector—conditions that are far from being met.

The message from the 2025 Vanguard Economic Discourse underlines a belief that several experts have expressed: Nigeria’s $1 trillion economic dream, as currently formulated, is a mirage unless backed by deep, structural reforms. The required growth rate of 40% annually, as cited by Kale, is not only unrealistic—it borders on impossible given the country’s current economic structure.

And with global conditions tightening, investor confidence waning, and the government’s fiscal buffers nearly exhausted, the challenge is not just achieving growth—it is avoiding further contraction.