Ethereum’s 10-year plan, dubbed “Lean Ethereum,” was unveiled by researcher Justin Drake, aiming to maintain the network’s 100% uptime while scaling performance and implementing quantum-resistant defenses.
The plan targets 10,000 transactions per second (TPS) on Layer 1 and 1 million TPS on Layer 2, leveraging hash-based cryptography, real-time zero-knowledge virtual machines (zkVMs), and data availability sampling. It includes upgrades across three Layer 1 sublayers:
Beacon Chain 2.0 for rapid finality and security, Blobs 2.0 for post-quantum data efficiency, and EVM 2.0 for optimized execution, possibly using RISC-V. These changes aim to protect Ethereum from quantum computing threats and ensure resilience against nation-state interference, while preserving decentralization and achieving full chain verification across devices.
The vision emphasizes minimalism, modularity, and long-term security to sustain Ethereum’s role as a global value transfer network. Ensuring uninterrupted service strengthens Ethereum’s appeal for decentralized finance (DeFi), enterprise applications, and global payments, potentially attracting more institutional and retail users.
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Achieving 10,000 TPS on Layer 1 and 1 million TPS on Layer 2 could rival centralized payment systems like Visa, enabling Ethereum to handle global transaction volumes. This could drive mass adoption for dApps, NFTs, and tokenized assets. Implementing hash-based cryptography and other post-quantum measures future-proofs Ethereum against quantum computing threats, ensuring the security of funds and smart contracts.
Early adoption of quantum resistance could set a standard for other blockchains, pressuring competitors to follow suit or risk obsolescence. Features like full chain verification on consumer devices (e.g., laptops, phones) and data availability sampling enhance decentralization, allowing more users to run nodes and participate in the network. This could counter centralization risks from staking pools or large validators.
The minimalist and modular approach (e.g., Beacon Chain 2.0, Blobs 2.0, EVM 2.0) simplifies development and maintenance, potentially lowering barriers for developers and node operators. Ethereum’s plan could widen its moat against rivals like Solana, Cardano, and Polkadot, which also aim for high TPS and scalability. By combining quantum defense, uptime guarantees, and Layer 2 scaling, Ethereum may solidify its dominance in smart contract platforms.
The focus on real-time zkVMs and RISC-V could attract developers from other ecosystems, fostering innovation in dApps and Layer 2 solutions. Higher throughput and efficiency could reduce transaction fees on Layer 2, making Ethereum more cost-effective for users. However, Layer 1 fees may remain high due to its focus on security and data availability.
Continued emphasis on energy-efficient proof-of-stake (post-Merge) aligns with environmental concerns, appealing to ESG-focused investors and users. Defending against nation-state interference (e.g., via quantum attacks or censorship) ensures Ethereum remains a neutral, global platform. This could make it a preferred infrastructure for cross-border finance and decentralized governance.
The plan prioritizes Layer 2 for ultra-high TPS (1 million), while Layer 1 focuses on security and modest scaling (10,000 TPS). This may frustrate users and developers who prefer low-cost, high-speed transactions directly on Layer 1, as Layer 2 solutions like rollups often involve trade-offs. Layer 2 ecosystems (e.g., Arbitrum, Optimism) may dominate user activity, potentially creating a two-tiered Ethereum.
While the plan emphasizes decentralization (e.g., lightweight verification), scaling to 1 million TPS via Layer 2 and relying on advanced tech like zkVMs could concentrate development and infrastructure in the hands of well-funded teams or entities. Large staking providers or rollup operators might gain outsized influence.
Community debates over governance and control may intensify, with fears that Ethereum could drift toward oligarchy despite its decentralized ethos. Smaller validators or node operators may struggle to keep up with technical demands. The shift to EVM 2.0, possibly using RISC-V, and the integration of real-time zkVMs require developers to adapt to new tools and paradigms. This could create a skills gap, favoring those with resources to retrain while sidelining smaller or less-funded developers.
Ethereum could attract capital and talent from less-prepared competitors, but it may also face pressure to assist smaller chains in transitioning, potentially straining its resources or focus. High Layer 1 fees and the cost of interacting with advanced Layer 2 solutions (e.g., rollup gas fees) could exclude less-wealthy users, particularly in developing regions. Meanwhile, institutional players with deep pockets may dominate high-value use cases.
However, it risks deepening divides between Layer 1 and Layer 2 users, centralized and decentralized stakeholders, advanced and legacy developers, and Ethereum versus its competitors. Bridging these divides will require careful governance, inclusive design, and community engagement to ensure Ethereum remains a unified, accessible platform while achieving its ambitious goals.