The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is holding its March 2026 meeting this week, on March 17-18, 2026. The rate decision along with the policy statement will be released on Wednesday, March 18, 2026, at 2:00 PM ET (18:00 GMT), followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
This is one of the FOMC’s eight scheduled meetings for the year, and it’s marked with a Summary of Economic Projections, which often provides key insights into the committee’s views on future rates. The federal funds rate target range is currently 3.50%–3.75%, where it has been held steady since the January 2026 meeting after some cuts in late 2025.
Markets and analysts overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold rates unchanged at this meeting: CME FedWatch Tool and similar indicators show a very high probability around 92–97% or higher in recent reports of no change. Only a tiny chance under 3–8% in various sources of a cut, and even less for a hike.
Factors influencing this include persistent inflation above the 2% target; core measures around 2.4–2.8%, labor market resilience, geopolitical uncertainties like oil price impacts from conflicts, and broader economic data. The focus will be on: Any shifts in the dot plot for projected 2026 and beyond rate cuts.
Register for Tekedia Mini-MBA edition 20 (June 8 – Sept 5, 2026).
Register for Tekedia AI in Business Masterclass.
Join Tekedia Capital Syndicate and co-invest in great global startups.
Register for Tekedia AI Lab.
Powell’s tone in the press conference—hawkish (cautious on cuts) or dovish (more open to easing later). Updated economic projections on growth, inflation, and unemployment. This could influence markets, including stocks, bonds, the USD, and assets like crypto, depending on whether the messaging signals cuts later in 2026 (possibly summer or later) or a more prolonged pause.
The official FOMC calendar confirms this schedule on the Federal Reserve’s website. The FOMC rate decision is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%. Market pricing via the CME FedWatch Tool shows a near-certain probability around 94–99.9% in recent updates of no change, with only a tiny chance of a 25 bps cut.
Crypto markets, particularly Bitcoin (BTC) and major altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and others, remain highly sensitive to this event due to its influence on global liquidity, risk appetite, USD strength, and forward guidance on rates. The decision itself is “priced in,” so the real driver will be the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP/dot plot) and Powell’s tone.
Historical patterns are bearish for crypto around FOMC announcements: BTC dropped after 7 of 8 meetings in 2025 even on actual cuts, and fell ~7.3% in 48 hours after the January 2026 hold from ~$90k to ~$83k. A “sell the news” reaction is common, even on expected outcomes, due to profit-taking or uncertainty.
BTC around $73,000–$74,000 recent surge to over $74k wiped out shorts, ETH around $2,200–$2,300. Expect short-term volatility, with potential downside pressure toward BTC $68k–$70k if messaging stays hawkish; fewer 2026 cuts projected due to sticky inflation, oil/geopolitical factors like Middle East tensions pushing energy prices higher.
Dovish Surprise (Bullish for Crypto)
If the dot plot signals more cuts in 2026 shifting to 2+ expected cuts or Powell sounds open to easing later in the year; acknowledging slower growth or room despite inflation, risk assets rally. BTC could push toward $75k–$80k+ quickly, with altcoins outperforming; ETH potentially testing higher resistance, XRP gaining on macro tailwinds.
Institutional ETF inflows could accelerate, supporting a relief rally. Fewer projected cuts, stronger emphasis on inflation persistence; core measures still above 2%, oil volatility, or cautious tone amid Fed leadership transition uncertainty (Powell’s term ends May 2026, potential shifts).
This could trigger selling in risk assets, with BTC revisiting $68k–$70k or lower in 48–72 hours, and broader altcoin weakness. Crypto has shown some positive decoupling from equities recently potentially positioning it as a hedge amid macro uncertainty. However, FOMC events often override that temporarily due to liquidity sensitivity.
Volatility is expected to spike around the 2:00 PM ET release and press conference—many traders advise waiting for the post-announcement candle to close before major positioning. Other factors like upcoming regulatory clarity or token unlocks could amplify moves, but the Fed statement is the dominant catalyst this week.
The event leans toward short-term downside risk or chop for crypto unless forward guidance surprises to the dovish side.